Can you please explain

[screamer1]

If the low estimate of deaths is 20,000 and all the old and vulnerable people lock themselves away now. Who are the 20,000 who are dying?

It's not just the old and vulnerable - though they are at greater risk.

The unlucky ones of any age

With some health info

I'll try that again

Most older people will have some contact so some will still get it and there will be others who are low risk but unlucky.

Girl, how dos that work when the underlying condition numbers don't add up to 100?

Girl, how dos that work when the underlying condition numbers don't add up to 100?

I think there are more than 4 underlying health conditons people can have. These are just the top 4 and 'None' as a comparison.

It’s not meant to add up to 100. It’s the % out of those who catch it, that die. So for age 80+, 15% of those who catch it will die. Etc.

Bear in mind we don’t have perfect information due to limits on testing, people still in hospital, differences in how cause of death is recorded etc. But this is the best we have.

So at the moment Italy's deaths are still going up. As are new cases. How the hell does that work when the whole country is in lockdown?

Thank you Girl! I'm very tired after a crazy day. I knew there'd be a reason!

The virus has a long incubation period, so even after lockdown, new cases will come to light.

You can catch it on April 1, go into lockdown on April 2, and show first symptoms up to 2 weeks later

Why are Italy's rates still going up?...
Because you can't actually lock down a country.

The medical staff treating patients will still go home to families.
Food production and delivery needs to continue.
Carers still must go in and out of homes.

^just a few of the ways it can be passed - there are many many more

They have not been on lockkdown for very long yet. Only since Friday. The incubation period is up to 14 days. So wait until next week to see if there is an effect.

Lots of people will be in multi occupation homes. A lot in small apartments. In a family of four after the first person shows symptoms it is possible that the last person won’t develop symptoms for 6 weeks. Conversely they may all develop symptoms at the same time. This is why they are not predicting a peak in Italy until later in the spring. Also they haven’t isolated the 70+ away from the rest of the population which will ultimately result in a lot more deaths.
Please stay away from your elderly relatives unless you are self isolating with them.

Thanks for clarifying. Also, do you know (sorry if this is really ignorant), but is it possible to catch it from things like milk cartoons etc. Should we be washing all the packaging that we buy?

www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

So are people doing things like wiping down all their shopping?

No, that would be really weird when you could focus on hand washing instead.

You're supposed to wash hands often, including before you leave the house, as soon as you come home, after handling things that aren't sterile, etc. That would include after packing your shopping away or going to the shop.

I'm at home most of the time and I'm getting food delivered atm. I suppose I'm just thinking if it sits on milk cartons etc and your making a cup of tea etc.

I really doubt you could sanitize your shopping to the point that hand washing would be unnecessary. I guess "wipe it down" if that feels like the right thing to do, but remember that hand washing (soap, hot water, 20 seconds) still must happen.