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Not a war, just the first battle

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Cam77 · 18/03/2020 15:36

It strikes me this is likely to be just the first battle in a much longer war. Unless I'm mistaken, there are basically just three ways to beat it.

  1. develop a vaccine
  2. isolate/suppress it into eventual total submission
  3. 60/70%+ get it causing it to burn itself out (or herd immunity)

Option 1) could be two years away. Also summer will, according to most scientists, very possibly be of no benefit in slowing the virus. (but we live in hope).

So everybody is trying option 2), but does anywhere in Europe have a realistic shot at achieving it?

In China, for instance, in the next few weeks, they may try removing the lockdown, likely on a province by province basis. It is very likely small numbers of revivals may occur, but they can then relockdown as is necessary on a province by province basis and restrict/ban interprovince travel. People will accept this. Other Asian countries, meanwhile, seemed to have supressed the scale of the outbreak so much sooner than Europe/Rest of the World and can try versions of what might be facing China.

But I just can't see Option 2) being effective in Europe:

*We let numbers spiral for far too long
Culturally we seem unwilling to accept stringent measures, and, Arguably, government is too in thrall to the needs of the financial elite and/or unwilling to sufficiently compensate the masses who will be under financial strain (hence still no forced closures of retail, schools etc).

That leads us with no other option but endless iterations of a Lockdown-Reopen Lockdown-Reopen cycle until a vaccine is found. Either, that, or Option 3) which obviously will lead to terrible numbers of sick people and the government seems now very keen to back away from (at least for now). So Lockdown-Reopen Lockdown-Reopen cycle it is, then. Or, if you prefer, herd immunity by stealth. This could go on and on and on.

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