Some positive news from Italy

[Dongdingdong]

The total number of cases in Italy rose to 31,506 from a previous 27,980, up 12.6 percent - the slowest rate of increase since the contagion came to light on February 21.

Source: www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/urges-world-test-test-test-covid-19-live-updates-200316234425373.html

Is the virus slowing down? It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues over the next couple of days.

They are in total lockdown though, that is what will be having the effect...what happens when they start relaxing the rules? We need to watch China first to gauge whether it ramps up again (sorry)

They are in total lockdown though, that is what will be having the effect...what happens when they start relaxing the rules? We need to watch China first to gauge whether it ramps up again (sorry)

If nobody's going out then the virus presumably has nowhere to go and will die off of its own accord. So why would it ramp up again when people come back out? I'm not a scientist (clearly) but that's my rudimentary understanding. I'd be interested to hear from anyone who can explain more.

Once the local infection dies out the virus won't return by itself, someone will need to bring it in. China has imposed strict restrictions on visitors. Things won't be normal for a long time to come.

The only possible light in the tunnel is promising research on drugs to cure the virus and vaccines to immunize people. Once these are developed and widespread things will get better (I am assuming that should the virus mutate, a new vaccine will be in production a lot faster than now when scientists are working from scratch).

It’ll just come back surely - when everyone starts mixing again?
I can’t see how it won’t. Seems a waste of time going into lockdown tbh and I’m in a vulnerable group. I’d sooner take my chances and if I die so be it - than be locked up for 18 months or longer. Everyone will have died from starvation from then anyway as no one will have any money.

It’ll just come back surely - when everyone starts mixing again?

But why would it? If everybody stays at home then the virus will have nowhere to go. Nobody will have it as they will either have become ill and recovered or will avoid contracting it altogether.

And the other big question over all of this is whether you can get reinfected. Seems that scientists hope this is the case but can’t yet confirm

But the virus will surely be somewhere in the world so someone will bring it to the country sooner or later. We don't know yet if there is any immunity after having it so a second wave is quite possible.
I want to believe the scientists but I also struggle to see the point of lockdown for anything else than slowing it down. However the cost of the lockdown to the economy, ie. people's livelihoods will be immense and will last years.

But why would it? If everybody stays at home then the virus will have nowhere to go. Which would be fine if no body from another country ever set foot in Italy for the foreeable future / ever again!

We need to know about repeated infections and immunity before any strategy is deemed succesful!

We also don't know what happens with asymptomatic carriers. How long are they carriers for?

Because unless you lock down the entire world it’ll be present somewhere and then open the borders again and back to square one.
I just don’t see how this is effective in eradicating it. Slowing the peak, spreading the numbers, yes. But unless a vaccine is found then we either stay locked away indefinitely or take the risk. That’s how I see it anyway.
The threat of the breakdown of society - and people dying because of being in poverty / no access to normal healthcare / violence within their homes / general chaos - will it really cause less deaths than covid-19? I don’t know.
Id sooner take my chances with the virus.

you'll have to wait for there to be 0 cases in the whole world for a number of weeks to be sure it was gone

And how can we reliably say that? When some aren’t symptomatic? When we aren’t testing every single person? It’s never going to be gone, that’s the truth of it. At some point we are all going to catch it. That’s not alarmist - that’s the likely truth.

Because unless you lock down the entire world it’ll be present somewhere and then open the borders again and back to square one.

That makes sense - thanks.

Only one new domestic CV infection in China today apparently - for the second day in a row.

The reason for the lock down is to delay the spread. Letting it free rein will overwhelm any health care system and people who could otherwise have been saved with medical care, will die. The other reason to delay the spread is the hope of a cure or vaccine, the fewer people die while we wait for a cure or vaccine, the better.

We also don't know what happens with asymptomatic carriers. How long are they carriers for?

I agree.

Like how it spread in the first place, wife to husband, then to medical staff as far as I know, then thousands.

Because unless you lock down the entire world it’ll be present somewhere and then open the borders again and back to square one.

But the point is to avoid everyone getting it at the same time.