NEWS AND INFORMATION ON CORONAVIRUS

[Mohster]

The government ramped up measures against the coronavirus epidemic following new predictions that the UK could otherwise have seen 250,000 deaths.

A new document published by the COVID-19 team at London's Imperial College - which is advising the government on its coronavirus response - warns the current public health threat is the "most serious" from a respiratory virus since the Spanish Flu in 1918.

They advised the UK adopts a strategy of "epidemic suppression" - for a period of potentially 18 months or more - rather than "mitigation".

As a result, the govt is now switching to suppression which is containment the first step - which all the other countries have been following from the start.

(comment) Note that they suggest 18 months of suppression. South Korea and Singapore have reduced the curve significantly. Testing is essential as well as restrictions such as the closure of schools. Govt is now stating they may close schools and provide childcare for essential workers. At last, we may see some measures that make sense, but it will be harder and many will have lost their lives. Studies have shown that if China had started their lockdown 3 weeks earlier they would have reduced the spread by 95% and therefore the deaths would have been substantially reduced.

However, we must take our own responsibility seriously and act to prevent the spread, the virus is transmitted through aerosol and this is important and eventually, they have allowed comment on main street news to touch on this as an expert makes it clear that you can spread it to somebody just by talking to them. The quicker we understand this the more active we will be in reducing our likelihood of catching this. It is in all our interests to be informed and to try to keep this to a minimum whilst they find a solution.

Let's hope that all the people on other threads who are not social distancing and proclaiming that they are 'carrying on as normal' going to restaurants pubs and the gym, take time read this then.

I'm disgusted that so many people are prepared to ignore the social distancing advice. So selfish, and I suspect ignorant, of the true consequennces of not trying to suppress this virus.

Agree. I have taken two dc out of school and last one another day and then we are all at home.

BREAKING: Spain reports 1,890 new cases of coronavirus and 25 new deaths, raising total to 13,716 cases and 533 dead

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide has surpassed 200,000. Of those, 7,990 have died, 82,037 have recovered, and 110,044 are still open

Tell me about it every time I pass the local pub it's packed and I feel like going in and shouting WTF are you all stupid. We can only get this if we get the message as quickly as poss. those who don't aren't just risking their lives they are then risking everyone else they interact or even pass in the streets for 14 days. It's not nice to think of or even comprehend but it's here and you need to take heed of what is required to get rid of it.

The study by John Hopkins shows that virus and therefore a risk of contagion was found for 11 and even 30 days after patients recovered, in faeces samples. Present testing to confirm that patients have recovered is by swabbing the mouth on 2 occasions. This is important to note as many will have mild symptoms(80%) and will never get tested but may think that as the publicity is that 7 days after the symptoms start, that they are then not spreading the virus as it is not in the saliva anymore. This could be a fatal flaw as they may feel it is now ok to visit parents grandparents or others who are vulnerable and they have been staying away from. Toilets are the main cause of aerosolisation and can spread the virus around the house or building this is particularly important for this reason.

This is from a reputable source - the lancet - if you wish to read the full article www.thelancet.com/journals/langas/article/PIIS2468-1253(20)30083-2/fulltext
Thanks and keep safe.

Consequences of socially isolating the vulnerable and the elderly.
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The social isolation of the elderly is a matter of serious health concerns prior to the Covid 19 crisis - this can only further increase this problem. Protecting the elderly and those who are vulnerable is a priority. But at the same time, they need not feel isolated especially when this is a long term situation.

Modern days have modern ways. You may not utilise things like face time or video conferencing media. Now is the time to start, we take for granted how loneliness feels and how empty life can be. A chat on the phone is ok, but they need to see our faces have a proper face to face conversation otherwise depression and other mental health problems can occur and these themselves shorten lifespans by the effect they have on the body dynamics. Keep this in mind. Keep in mind that just because you cannot have contact with your loved ones to protect them, you can still talk to them face to face through window glass and through digital means. Your virtual presence and including them in daily lives may make the long days ahead easier to bear.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30061-X/fulltext

that point about the virus lingering in faeces, even in people who seem well/ or to have recovered is not often mentioned.
please everyone put the lid down before flushing the toilet.
that why they have lids.
particles are spread far and wide. aerosolisation. virus favourite. avoid.

Many people are scared and rightly so, this is because this is unprecedented and being scared is normal. Being scared is what keeps you alive in situations like this. Take it seriously and be smart. This is an invisible enemy and remembers that because it is important.

There is evidence that the coronavirus due to its small size, is able to float on air in droplets and aerosolization. Studies have shown that in some cases it has been airborne for 30 minutes and therefore spreads further than the normal droplet infections like the flu where a sneeze or cough means droplets are spat out. Think of it like this when a ray of light highlights little dust particles in the air, or when you vape that is similar to aerosolization. One of the main sources of aerosolisation is toilets when you flush particles are made airborne and can spread right around your house. Don't use public toilets at all.

Use bleach before and after you go to the toilet. So put bleach in the toilet now, when you then go to the toilet in the future this will help to kill any viruses present, then after you go flush toilet with the lid down. Then straight away put a few drops of bleach in the water so that it is in the water for the next use. Both urine and faeces have shown to be mediums containing the virus, but the latter being more likely as the virus spreads internally in the respiratory and gastrointestinal systems. This is very important in the case of visiting relatives or friends who are elderly as you may wear a mask but this is not adequate. The best thing to is to not visit elderly or vulnerable people to protect them from the risks but if you have to then be careful and think about these matters carefully.

The estimated case fatality rate in Italy stands at 7·7%,

The present rate of R0 in Covid 19 is between 4 (China)and 7.7%(Italy) this is substantially more than flu.

R0 is the figure that illustrates the infection rate, so the no of people 1 person on average passes it to -flu has an R0 of 1.2, so 1 person with the flu on average passes it to 1.2 people).

So 1 person passes it to 7, those 7 pass it to 7 others etc etc this happens over a case series interval time, this is the time used to determine the intervals over time, so the time between the first person passing it to the first 7 and then the time taken for the 7 to pass it to another 7 each.

The present rate is about 6 days, this is important as the growth is exponential - so 1 person (called person 0) infects 7 =7, 6 days later the total is 7 infect 7 every =49 people, 6 days later 49x7=343 people, this then continues 2401,16807, 117649 so you can see why the rate of infection explodes.

Article explaining R0 www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-contagious-r-naught-average-patient-spread-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

As you will see for a long time I have been advocating that the govt was putting economics before lives and their plan was to create a herd immunity by sacrificing lives on an acceptable casualties basis. This was totally apparent if you listen to the interview given to Channel 4 where it was suggested as an answer to a question put by the presenter that many would die whilst the govt tried to create herd immunity as being inevitable.

Now Dominic Cummings chief adviser has been caught out for following this strategy and quoted by papers and the Sunday Times in particular as wanting to let the elderly die to save the economy.

You don't need to take them word for it - just look a the govt plan - contain essentially consisted of the suggestion that we should wash our hands. The delay was effectively none existent and the schools were only closed as a result of parents taking their children out of school and the forecasts that 250000 could die. In fact, the govt was rushing through legislation in the following week to force parents to take their kids to school and it was only scrapped a the last minute by the publication of the estimates.

That left mitigation, mitigation of damage to the economy. The PM and govt are as a result backtracking.

The suggestion is that Dominic Cummings had said let the old die whilst we get herd immunity but now seeing what is happening in Italy and likely the fact that the virus is now killing younger people, they are quickly backtracking having failed to contain or delay because they did nothing.

As a result of their false assurances and that we just have to wash our hands the public flocked to public areas and their plans have put us in a position that will result in many more deaths. The govt of other countries are now publicly criticising the govt. All of this now means, at last, these people who are ignorant of the risk will likely make a lock-down more likely.

I personally think that they should face criminal charges if a corporate body was to make such decisions the CEO and directors would be imprisoned.

UPDATE 26. 3.20
Tot cases 11,658 new cases 2,129
death 578 new deaths 113
CASE FATAILITY RATE -4.96%

Cases in UK are moving up quickly cases listed as critical are 20 which seems low and recovered is 135 these figures are important as case resolution (cr) i.e no of people who have died or recovered is 735 which means 10923 people or 93% are still in hospital double the no of intensive care beds. Obviously there will be recoveries and they may never need ICU care but I think you can see the problem even though we are still in the beginning of this problem

Why are you presuming that all of the active cases are in hospital?

Because the UK is not testing until they require hospitalisation. Presently, they advise that if you have symptoms then stay home and it's only in the case where cases become severe and need hospitalisation that they are taken to hospital. They then carry out a test to see if you have covid and if positive then you are added to the stats. Unfortunately, the UK seems to want to di things totally differently to the rest of the world. If you look a the countries that have succeeded in controlling the spread it has been because they have tested the general public and isolated anybody that comes back positive unfortunately our govt decided to go down the route of Herd immunity and not testing and isolation and then tracing, even though the WHO made it clear to countries that this was the way to control the spread. Then at the last minute when the figures started growing they seem to have changed their tactics, which I believe are to appease the public and they are still going down the Herd immunity route. So these figures are representative of those admitted.

There is only one way to prevent the spread and we must take the steps taken by countries like S. Korea. However, I point to another example, the Czech reTHey made them out fo t-shirts or any materials they could find.

Masks do 4 important things-

1. They stop both asymptomatic and symptomatic spread. Because people who have the virus will not spread it as do people without masks. 2 They prevent people who do not have it from catching it.
2. They stop us touching our noses and mouth- studies show that even medical students who were told not to touch their mouths and noses did so up to 20 times per hour.
3. They reduce the amount of the virus that may infect you allowing the body to have a better chance of beating the infection and also creating some immunity.

MIT did a study and found that the social distancing we carry out is inadequate. They found that the aerosol/droplets are able to be spread to 100ft and as I had revealed earlier that the virus was capable of spreading great distances and over greater time on airflow for up to 3-4 hours at a time. So masks are important.

CLAP THE NHS THURSDAYS BOO THE GOVT FRIDAYS

For the brilliant mess of the job they have made so far and the rubbish they try to come out with. Selling us short on BREXIT was one thing that was bad enough but this clown is lying to us through the times when we deserve the truth.

I dont know where we get these people to run the country. They state that the peak is going to be next week, what planet are they on, they are building hospitals to house 5000 people just in one exhibition centre. You have to ask therefore is it likely the peak will be next week. The stats show that we are having a higher death rate than Italy at the same time as us. The fact that economic figures show there will be a massive cliff edge for the economy and that things will be as worse as the depression or thereabouts, with the Prime ministers Lead virus advisor saying we have made a mistake in locking down and that it should end and we should go for 'herd immunity' and that we are sacrificing the young futures for saving the old. Same as the govt getting staff at care homes to talk to their residents into signing do not necessitate forms. The govt had the choice at the beginning to follow the model that worked Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, but they didn't want the effect of this on the economy. So having cocked that up they then go for herd immunity but people then get concerned and they then have this farce of a lockdown- with the regular statement stay at home - so they can say yes we said to stay at home. Now they want to persuade us that the way forward was this half baked 'herd immunity' that isn't working anywhere else. Talk about is manage things - do they realise that sending people to work just on a notion that it may result in herd immunity when there are no signs of this to date is futile and will make a bad problem worse. When will they start seeing what works instead of what works for them and their shareholdings? Dont they realise most people don't have massive shareholdings and even if they did they would choose their lives and their loved ones to keep their stash of money safe. We are no way near the peak and is about time somebody with a bit of common sense and humanity rather than economics started to advise the prime minister- let's not forget it's us that put them where they are and we can also remove them. A recession or depression is bad no doubt, but humans are not tests for some theory that has no real basis and works more on hope and preconceptions, how far have those got them so far.

As for the serum test, they didn't want to test people with the test the rest of the world was using because this was an identify and isolate and control test, they wanted to make sure their economy wasn't affected and 'herd immunity' was achieved. Then they said we will get the serum test so we can say you've had it already back to work, were they so shallow to realise this test, therefore, tells people if they haven't had it and they will then stay at home, now they say the test they put all their hope on doesn't work. They state its the chemicals that we cant get hold of the chemical companies to say there is no shortage of these - they say there are problems but cannot say what these problems are and when asked by C4 they refuse to comment. I think we know what it is - their test will show that their herd immunity figures that 60% have already had it are false. Have they not listen to the welsh doctors all the people in their ICU beds are under 50 years of age. Its been 3 months and they haven't even got to the point where they can say we are testing substantial people, their soundbites don't match reality as the NHS doesn't have the PPE they need and deserve maybe we should have clap for the NHS every Thursday and boo the Govt every Friday for the job they're doing. God even Trump is doing a better job.

The New England Journal of Medicine referred to the scientific paper produced for the US govt titled -The Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1.

Their important conclusion was -in one line taken from their articles conclusion paragraph-

'Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours.'

Basically what they said was there can be viruses floating around in the air for up to 3 hours because it is so much smaller than most viruses, in a confined space that means there could be a cloud of viruses that people will unknowingly pass through. That those viruses may then land on surfaces far away 10 metres or more and then stay there for up to 7 2 hours in most cases but up to 9 days in some. So its not just the surfaces others may have touched it can land anywhere on any surface without sneezing, coughing or somebody touching that surface.