UK vs Italy - Coronavirus figures

[utterlybutterly8]

Chris Whitty said today that he believes we are three weeks behind Italy in this coronavirus crisis. These are the comparable fatality figures I’ve found for both countries by looking through old news reports. Unfortunately I’m not able to compare numbers of cases because we’re not testing in the UK.

Italy

Feb 25th: 11
March 4th: 107
March 7th: 197
March 9th: 463
March 13th: 1266
March 15th: 1809

UK

March 5th: 1
March 8th: 3
March 12th: 10
March 16th: 55

So, if we reach 107 deaths in the UK by March 18th, we’ll be two weeks behind Italy.
If we reach 107 by March 25th we’ll be three weeks behind and if we reach 107 by April 2nd we’ll be four weeks behind.

I’m just praying that the number of fatalities will start to level off soon, but that was a big leap in the UK between the 12th and the 16th

The UK shouldn't be following Italy though, it's had the advantage of time and seeing what is happening there and should have acted sooner. As @TheCanterburyWhales says Italians looking at the UK aghast that lessons don't seem to be being learned at all.

I'd my Google search is correct, Italy ordered school closures 2 weeks ago today.
When did lockdown start?

Total lockdown last Tuesday. The 10th. Zona rossa before that. Schools closed on the 5th. Again zona rossa beforehand.

Far more worrying is the fact we are on the curve to be at Whole of China’s numbers (around 81k) by April 1st. And we do not have the capabilities to do a Wuhan or to draft in 40k extra medics to fight this.
We have blown this so badly. Everything should have been shut down weeks and weeks ago to give the NHS a fighting chance.

I’m so confused as to why the hell we have basically been lied too???

Yes. The government either hasn’t been honest or has been asleep on the job.

This article was written on 2nd of March and highlighted all the flaws in the government’s plan. Other people saw the government was wrong. Why didn’t its advisers or the politicians themselves?

freemarketconservatives.org/the-government-needs-to-be-much-firmer-in-its-response-to-covid-19/

@TheCanterburyWhales well that is good news, as once it has peaked things can only get better right? Thanks for sharing.

remember the 'herd immunity'. will wait and see what happens but I've always thought why don't we just follow the WHO guidelines. And we're still not. Why stop testing? It doesn't make any "scientific" sense. Healthcare workers isolating at home when they may not even have the disease??? I really hope I'm wrong but I think the UK have effed this up badly and everybody warned them.

Italy’s peak is expected in 15-20 days’ time according to a pp, which means things will then start to improve. If we’re following the same pattern then CV here will peak in 29-34 days time - about a month from now. We will then be over the worst.

It’s not an easy task to handle an epidemic. And hindsight makes it easy to see and say “so and so was wrong”. Need to have a bit of compassion that it’s very hard to know the right choices when you are in the middle of a crisis and do not know the future.

Jesus wept. This is incomprehensible.

I’m counting Feb 25 as day 1 so Feb 26/27/28/29/01/02/03.. March 4... is 9th Day

So in Italy it went 11 to 107 in 9 days

In U.K.,
March 12 if day 1 at 10...
13/14/15/16/17/18/19... March 20th is our 9th day.

Today’s number is 167.

In U.K. it went from 10 to 167 in 8 days.

How are we 2 weeks behind Italy? We’re on a different and WORSE trajectory!

How close to an italian lockdown is the "close pubs, restaurants etc" directive from today??
Seems like lockdown lite to me?

Lockdown throughout Italy, Tuesday 10th, announced the night before.
Schools had closed totally the week before. Last school day was 4th March.
Hotspot towns in Lombardia had been closed down for weeks, Lombardia itself from Sunday 8th.

On Wed 11th, PM announced more restrictive measures as people were not taking things seriously enough. That was when the one person allowed out for food and essentials was brought in and restricted opening hours. Pubs and bars were closed as of the 10th.

'Today's figure is 5018 death 233, death toll is almost identical to Italy's death 230 two weeks ago 07/03/2020.

If we followed this speed, next weekend uk infected case would be 20000, the week after would be 50000, death number in two weeks today would be around 4800. (Italy today's figure 53578, death 4825)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

I found this very interesting.

We’re still exactly two weeks behind Italy - their death toll was 233 on 7th March, ours is 233 today.

On 8th March theirs jumped to 366 - an increase of 133 in just 24 hours. Let’s hope tomorrow’s UK figures won’t be anywhere near that.