Does catching Covid9 actually create hard immunity?

[Ironfloor269]

I saw this explanation of the UK's response to covid9. It's the best one I've seen so far. However, it creates more questions in my mind.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=nl6tTwxzCi8

1. Does catching it actually create herd immunity, like chicken pox, mumps or measles? Is that confirmed yet? If not, aren't we taking a huge risk?
   
   
2. What if covid9 is like a typical flu virus? Where it's possible to catch it again and again?
   
   
3. Also, if we go into lockdown now, how will there be a resurgence of the virus once we come back out of lockdown? If we stop the spread now, where is the virus going to be to create a resurgence when we come back out?

[Ironfloor269]

Excuse my typo in the title. Obviously, I meant herd immunity.

[TheGirlFromStoryville]

The scientists advising the government assume that herd immunity will kick in. As its a new virus, it's hard to say whether this is correct. If the virus mutates, then I wouldn't think herd immunity would apply.

Basically we're all guinea pigs in an experiment no other country is willing to do, going against WHO guidance.

[IceColdCat]

I'm not an expert but here are my thoughts:

1&2. No it's not confirmed so we are taking a risk. But the data so far seems to show that you are unlikely to get it again.

1. I think the problem here is the global nature of this. The entire world would need to go into lockdown which isn't likely to happen - there would be some countries who wouldn't cooperate. So it would carry in spreading and could then return even if you'd eliminated it in the U.K.

[Hazelnutlatteplease]

If you believe Boris yes

Just about every other expert from everywhere including WHO. There is no evidence to support the idea you get immunity by catching it once. Which completely fucks with herd immunity.

[Ironfloor269]

Fuck.

[IHadADreamWhichWasNotAllADream]

You can’t catch “a flu virus” again and again. That’s why flu vaccines work: you can normally only catch each flu once. The problem is that there are so many different types of flu that your immunity to one sort is of only limited use in helping you fight off a different sort (more useful if they’re very closely related).

IANAimmunologist but as I understand it it seems likely that COVID19 will be similar.

[Ironfloor269]

Exactly. We DON'T KNOW whether herd immunity will be created. Because if it does, then we are very close to creating a successful vaccine, right?

[meredithgrey1]

Also, if we go into lockdown now, how will there be a resurgence of the virus once we come back out of lockdown? If we stop the spread now, where is the virus going to be to create a resurgence when we come back out?

Other countries.

Low level spread even during lockdown (people will still need to shop, hospitals will need to be staffed, shops will need to be stocked, food will need to be produced, police will still need to work, bins will need to be emptied, some public transport will need to run to get all these other people to work, plus there will always be dicks who ignore a lockdown and decide its a good time for a party) that then increases once lockdown ends. A lockdown won't stop all spread completely unless we do it with the same strictness as China but I just don't see that happening.

[Fatasfooook]

There’s no evidence that it creates immunity- only hope and assumption

[Ironfloor269]

@IHadADreamWhichWasNotAllADream - thank you. That's comforting to know. Yes, what I meant was, you can catch different strains of the flu and the virus mutates so fast that the antibodies of one type is not successful as fighting another.

Let's hope covid9 is similar to the flu virus in that sense.

[Hercwasonaroll]

We don't all get different flu strains every year though. So even if it did mutate not everyone would get it again.

Isn't the Spanish flu strain still out there? We're not dying in our millions from that anymore.

[Ironfloor269]

@meredithgrey1- Thank you. That's the kind of explanation I was looking for.

[MigginsMrs]

Isn't the Spanish flu strain still out there? We're not dying in our millions from that anymore.

I think it was swine flu

[Ironfloor269]

@Hercwasonaroll - yes, we don't get all the flu strains every year.

I really hope the UK scientists are spot on.

[Fev11]

There isn’t the evidence for this Coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) yet but many other corona viruses eg the common cold only confer immunity for around 3 months so it is by no means certain.

As it only emerged in November/ December time will tell.
In the meantime it is probably best not to assume it does.

[ChocoBanana]

Can't answer first two questions but in response to third if is very very hard to completely clear the human population of a virus. Even in lockdown there will be ongoing contacts between people - within the rules e,g medics, bin men, shop workers, delivery drivers, and outside the rules. We currently have no means of vaccination so even apparently small amount of contacts will result in continued spread then as soon as rules are relaxed disease will spread quickly again as lots of susceptible individuals. Whether you agree with UK policy or not, there currently appears little chance that most people will get away without being infected at some stage.

[Fev11]

And it is worth pointing out that Spanish flu was caused by an H1N1 influenza virus but this pandemic is caused by a Coronavirus, it is not flu.
They are different types of virus.

[Fev11]

Here’s a statement from an eminent immunologist:

www.immunology.org/news/bsi-response-herd-immunity-and-sars-cov-2

Immunology is a very complex area of medicine!

[Carrie7469]

It's Covid19 not Covid9

[Tardigrade001]

Testing people is going to be crucial for understanding if and how immunity develops, and how long it lasts. Unfortunately, the government has decided to severely limit testing, which won't help.

[Menora]

My understanding is that slowing the virus down is the aim not stopping it completely as that isn’t possible

It puts less pressure on resources and also gives us longer to find a vaccine or anti viral

I work in healthcare and we can’t close - so we are doing social distancing as much as possible so that we can spread our resources more effectively. I agree that any ‘lockdown’ is just to slow this not to create immunity or to stop it completely.