Herd immunity will be a failed “experiment”...

[Derbygerbil]

.... if it gets that far.

I can only presume that the floated idea to quarantine over 70s and other vulnerable groups is to enable Coronavirus to circulate amongst the population so we gain herd immunity by next winter....

On hearing this last night I thought it sounded like it might be a reasonable, if very tough idea, but on reflection I think it could be utterly catastrophic! Here’s why:

To get herd immunity I believe we need around 60% of the population to have got the illness. Assuming that getting the illness does confer immunity (a big assumption), that’s c.40 million people in the UK. Apparently we need to gain herd immunity by next winter, so effectively we need to contract it at a rate of about 2 million cases per week... At a mortality rate of say, 0.1%, for the under 70s, that’s still 2,000 deaths per week, which would far, far higher at the peak, and 40,000 in total. This would be day after day, month after month.... And this doesn’t take account of the millions who would have pneumonia, and the hundreds of thousands of ‘survivors’ needing hospital treatment. This would utterly overwhelm the NHS.

That makes Wuhan and Italy look mild. A few weeks in and the public won’t wear it and we’ll be begging to be locked down.

And the worst thing is, I don’t believe it will work. With Coronavirus rampant, the most vulnerable requiring home or residential care will have to come into contact with care workers who will be riddled with it, completely destroying the whole concept.

Am I missing something?

Just spoken to a couple of friends and it seems I’m not the only one to have thought this!

The government have said they are going to publish their models. Will be an interesting read to understand how they are going to manage this.

The only thing you are missing is the additional pressures on our healthcare system will mean the death rate might be higher (not enough of the right beds or machines), and that a lot of people will die due to not being able to have their usual health care (the extra burden on ambulances, surgery's cancelled, regular clinics cancelled so things missed, even GP appointments can save people's lives). A lot of those over 70s will not get the healthcare they need at home. Some Coronavirus patients may relapse or have lasting lung damage. There are no measures to protect the homeless or very financially vulnerable. Domestic violence, child abuse/neglect, all these things will rise. Then there are the MH implications. It's a shit show honestly. I hope the numbers are wrong.

The thing that worries me the most is the assumption that the virus won't mutate. AFAIK covid-19 is itself a mutation of the Coronavirus which animals get. I wouldn't be hanging the lives of 40k people on the assumption that immunity will help

This is a dangerous, money driven I'll thought out experiment.
And just how are they going to enforce this? Are we going to have pensioners arrested upon leaving their home? What happens to the elderly receiving care visits? Will carers be self isolating every time they visit somebody with a cough or cold?
The sad thing is that the very demographic who voted this government in are being served a fatal blow to their mental health and well-being, not seeing anybody for 4 months to many will present a death sentence

After this virus appeared in humans, it mutated within 2 months. There have been reports of 2 strains already. People who catch one strain are not immune to the other- one case in China recovered from the first strain then caught the 2nd strain and this finished him off. If herd immunity develops the govt can think themselves very lucky indeed, but I wouldn't rely on it as the basis for a plan.