Can any scientists explain to me...

[mackers1]

Sorry if this has been asked before. In places like Italy and Spain, where "lockdowns" are in place, what is likely to happen when these are lifted? Coronavirus will still exist. People may slacken with following guidance, even simple hand washing (some dirty people don't do this at best of times). So, isn't lockdown just storing the problem up for later?

I'm not a scientist but see the point of herd immunity, for those that don't have underlying issues, and isolation for the vulnerable. It's what our bodies do, build up immunities. So, in the long run, surely that's what will protect the vulnerable too as they won't risk being exposed to it eventually.

I'm sorry if I have it wrong and I'm not posting this to be slaughtered. I'd just like it explained (And I remember bird flu, BSE, SARS, Swine flu, pre internet days with worst case scenarios being rammed down your throat).

Any scientists around?

Hope for a quick vaccine and more thorough contact tracing....

There is doubt as to whether you get immunity with this virus though.........

If it slows the spread, the number of people being admitted to hospital and the number leaving hospital, will have a chance to even out. At present the numbers needing admission are high so the hospitals don't have a chance.

In fact, isn't there zero evidence of immunity at this point, but anecdotal evidence from countries which are further along in the crisis that people can be reinfected?

During the lockdown
Healthcare capacity will be increased
Ventilors bought
Staff increases planned
Beds created
Research improves
Immunity levels assessed
Rapid tests created
Vaccine development continues
Treatment options are developed
Temperature checks instated
Plans are made

In short, lockdowns provide the opportunity to be in an infinitely better position to cope.

When lockdowns are eventually released, it won't be done with the entire population at once. Perhaps there will be sections released in waves. The immune will be treated differently to the uninfected. Controls will be much tighter.

You know how the British government is talking about reducing and spreading out the curve? Well that's done the way Spain (and all other countries are doing).

It reduces the number of contacts each individual has. In other words reduces the number of people the virus gets passed between and slows down the infection.

A slow downed infection rate means that at any given time fewer people are Ill and fewer people needing ICU beds. It won't stop the virus in it's track because nothing can.

The British Government plan to develop "herd immunity" does nothing to spread out and reduce the curve. That needs social distancing and no mass gatherings. The handwashing instructions are good and at least they aren't telling everyone to go out and lick each others faces.

Considering there are reports of re-infection, the idea of herd immunity in this way is a leap into the unknown; herd immunity created by vaccination doesn't rely on potentially thousands of deaths and potentially hundreds of thousands of those being left with complications. We also don't know how this is going to mutate, which will most probably mean that herd immunity is worthless (I say probably because one of my A Level students brought up cow pox and small pox and it is true that there could be some overlap that allows for immunity).

A lockdown will give us (pardon the pun) breathing space. Time to prepare, time to deal with those ill right now and in the near future, tiem for more research into how the disease profile will look. I'll be walking into school tomorrow (a large 2000+ secondary and sixth form) trying to work out how to distance myself from my students. I have health issues, my own children and a partner with asthma. I move classrooms down tight corridors with hundreds of children at a time, literally squashed against the kids. I touch door handles and computer equipment that hundreds touch each day.... the only way to reduce spread in my workplace is to literally close it to students.