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Does anyone think Boris is right?

477 replies

Emcont · 15/03/2020 08:37

I'm not saying I do. But I'm curious to see if anyone agrees with the strategy they're going for as most of what I'm reading is against.

OP posts:
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PhilCornwall1 · 15/03/2020 11:49

I don't trust Johnson (for clarity I'm neither a Labour or Lib Dem supporter) and neither do I trust Vallance either. I leaning more towards Chris Whitty, but not 100%

Smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 15/03/2020 11:50

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Redbonnie · 15/03/2020 11:50

Yes I agree, I have a young relative who is immuno compromised and a sister undergoing chemo. I also have a 78 year old mother who has previously been hospitalised with pneumonia. I want them to have access to treatment if they need it and with our low icu ratio it makes sense to isolate them now. My concern is we are not isolating them quickly enough. Also we must immediately put in place an infrastructure to identify and support the elderly in their homes or in govt facilities like hotels. This weekend we need to make plans for our families where we can without government help.

Nanna50 · 15/03/2020 11:51

I also wonder whether lack of NHS resources has contributed to the current death rate.

Spodge · 15/03/2020 11:52

Yes

Lweji · 15/03/2020 11:57

The nature of the NHS means that data sets available in the UK are more complete and more accurate than anywhere else in Europe so UK modelling is better that that in other EU countries

Anywhere in Europe, you think? Grin

Anyway... some countries manage to have fewer dead, in % per identified cases, it's those examples that need to be followed.
It's about 2% in the UK and you're still in the initial phase, supposedly. Confused

Does anyone think Boris is right?
AnotherMurkyDay · 15/03/2020 11:57

I'm starting to wonder if maybe his response will actually be quite effective in a way. People are choosing to self isolate, those who aren't following the 7 days are feeling the social pressure to stick to it, individual shops, businesses and work places are coming up with their own solutions. People are using their own savings and stock piles. Neighbours are helping each other. Families are coming up with their own plans. In a county where we value individualism it might actually work to get people being their own (and their local communities) jailers instead of enforcing it. I guess that's the "behavioural science" right?convince people to self isolate and support each other instead of coming up with any extra money or resources or any unpopular sanctions. Get people spending extra Money in the supermarkets, instead of asking for government help. Personal responsibility instead of government assistance. It will have casualties, no doubt about it. But I starting to wonder if that's what they want. Instead of closing schools, schools having to close and parents paying for online tutors and resources. Instead of closing businesses, businesses adapting for people to WFH more. Getting people between 18-45ish just doing more grunt work and trying to hold everything together because they don't want people dying on their conscience. So at the end of it all he can do a speech about the wonderful way British people adapt and come together, Blitz spirit in the face of adversity. We lost many, but we came out stronger hyperbole. And in 50 years time they will be making documentaries about the brave prime minister who got is through the terrible pandemic of 2020 and they'll make statues of him and call him a hero.

Now THERE is some dystopia for you Grin

crazydiamond222 · 15/03/2020 11:57

Looking at the issues caused by shutting schools in spain and italy (children being taken on holiday to other parts of the country, grandparents getting infected) I do think the UK approach makes some sense.

What I don't agree with however is the years of tory austerity and privatisation that have impacted the nhs and brought us to the point where we has a quarter of the hospital capacity of germany and half that of italy.

I also think they should have done more to prepare over the last couple of months. Why is it only this weekend for example that they have asked businesses to produce ventilators when it has been clear from china and italy for a while that these will be hugely under pressure.

Lweji · 15/03/2020 12:00

To be clear, I don't think the UK or Portugal, for that matter, need China or Italy type quarantine at the moment, but robust measures and leadership about these are needed from governments, so that we don't have to reach the quarantine stage.

LaLaLaLa22 · 15/03/2020 12:02

Nope! We are Canadian & are following the Canadian government guidelines. Canada has much better government, better healthcare, way better education system, etc., I have way more trust in their leadership!

Clavinova · 15/03/2020 12:02

Richard Horton, editor of prestigious medical journal The Lancet, stated."

Not Richard Horton again.
Controversies: Andrew Wakefield/MMR, Sally Clark, Iraq, Gaza;
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Horton_(editor)

He's very political - anti-Brexit, anti-Boris Johnson, anti-Matt Hancock...He tweeted this last year regarding Matt Hancock (sugar tax/smoking);

"A combination of gutlessness and sycophancy leads Matt Hancock to pander to the ill-informed prejudices of Boris Johnson. Welcome to Britain."

Kbrooke08932 · 15/03/2020 12:05

Yes I do.
I also think there is little evidence that the measures taken in Spain and Italy are having the desired effect. It’s too early to tell.
What happens when their lockdowns end? People are flapping because we aren’t doing the same and because it is hard to do nothing (or not a lot) but that doesn’t mean it is wrong.
If you are in one of the vulnerable groups you will naturally take more precautions.

Clavinova · 15/03/2020 12:05

Saoirse7
Clavinova, Please tell me the relevance?

We should copy China's quarantine methods - but not their classroom sizes in a pandemic.

AnotherMurkyDay · 15/03/2020 12:05

Sorry I meant to post that on the thread about whether I thought it was a social experiment/felt like a dystopia

MinkowskisButterfly · 15/03/2020 12:06

No

Justaboy · 15/03/2020 12:08

Its quite simple actually. We have a viral pathogen that is very contagious, no one to speak of will have immunity to it.

There is NO vaccine and that will take some time to come about maybe a year! There is sod all in the way of treatment options some trials are under way but thats going to take time.

To get herd immunity will mean a lot of people having the illness so
they will have antibodies to the contagion. There have been some reports that people have had it twice but thats "iffy" information as sod all is known as to how this behaves as yet.

Its going to disrupt the way most all of us go about our lives for quite
some time to come as yet. So we either isolate from each other as much as possible to reduce the infection rate, or stay in have no contact with anyone!, that way it will die out of its own accord.

Not much of a choice is it:(

BoJo and his advisors need to start telling the real truth on this and
start managing as they ought. China's infection rate has almost stopped and their recovered rate is rising by around 1500 a day so we can get through it but they went about it in a draconian way rather like what's happening in Spain and Italy.

Least BoJo and co are looking to better isolate the over 70's in a few
weeks and is urging the ventilator makers to go flat out on production
so some glimmer of hope!

eeeyoresmiles · 15/03/2020 12:10

No - not because I think we should have a complete lockdown right now, but because apart from the handwashing advice they aren't pushing for more social distancing.

When you look at what they aren't saying, but could, about social distancing, it looks very much as though they want it to go through the non-elderly population quite fast.

They say they want to slow it down and flatten the curve - but then they hold back from all sorts of things that would make that slowing down more effective even without shutting schools etc.

They wouldn't even have to ban things right from the start - they could just say this is really serious, please cancel nonessential events, businesses get people working from home ASAP, try to keep away from people when out and about, make all meetings phone or online, clean and disinfect more in public places.

Why aren't they pushing hard for all these simpler things that would all help slow things down?

Even the talk of how it's all about protecting the vulnerable sends a subtle message that everyone else doesn't need to worry about catching the virus, which will make people try less hard to avoid catching and spreading it. Again, that suggests that the virus moving fast through the less obviously vulnerable population is all part of the plan. This is frightening because although the death and severe illness rate is lower for those younger people, it's not zero and still many times flu for lots of people.

My concern is that, for all the talk of slowing things down, they aren't trying to slow it down enough, and might have decided to 'take the hit' of an utterly overwhelmed health service for a couple of months at the peak, in favour of getting it done faster. I would have much more faith in them if they seemed to be really trying to slow it down more, even without a lockdown or schools shutting yet.

Most of us aren't qualified to pick apart the science and judge it, but that works both ways. The people who think it makes sense are making just as unqualified judgements.

PieceOfMaria · 15/03/2020 12:11

Does anyone think Boris is right?

How about we change this to does anyone think I the healthcare professionals, virologists, risk analysts and statisticians advising him are right?

He didn’t arrive at this decision by himself based on some evil Tory whim, you know.

GrumpyHoonMain · 15/03/2020 12:12

There is a scientific base to the UK’s approach and if it works (defined as herd immunity + at risk groups actually following the advice to isolate) this may well become the standard approach for all countries to follow.

strawberrylipgloss · 15/03/2020 12:13

No. He is prioritizing money over lives

Snogood · 15/03/2020 12:14

Yes

MeganBacon · 15/03/2020 12:16

Yes. He is being led by scientists and experts, not political pressure so far, although I suspect he will soon bow to political pressure too. Anyone who doesn't like it can always limit social contact etc. off their own bat, and anyone in a vulnerable group would be wise to do so. I am not in a vulnerable group but have modified behaviour quite drastically anyway because I think it is socially responsible to do so.

Saoirse7 · 15/03/2020 12:16

Clavinova,

Spain, Italy & France have all went into lockdown, your straw-clutching here is very loose.

If we're going to copy any country's education system it would be Finland but we'll save that for another day.

Also on the topic of kids self isolating - parents send sick kids into school all the time. I sent a sick child home 3 days in a row. I don't trust everyone to make the right choice when self isolating when it puts others in danger.

cocodomingo · 15/03/2020 12:16

No

LittleLittleLittle · 15/03/2020 12:18

@eeeyoresmiles we don't know what the science - the mathematical models - they are using are, even though I now have my suspicions.

If they told people then I suspect it would clarify a lot of things about the approach being taken. It is also not fair not to share that model with the rest of the world so the shortcomings can be pointed out.

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