Does anyone think Boris is right?

[Emcont]

I'm not saying I do. But I'm curious to see if anyone agrees with the strategy they're going for as most of what I'm reading is against.

He's taking advice from the Chief Medical Officer. It's not political.

The final decisions are made by the Prime Minister and Cabinet. They listen to advisors (and they may disagree with each other) and they make the final decision. That is what they are paid for.

No. Sophie's Choice. Boris is using my asthmatic son in his herd experiment , but to protect my ageing parents.

There is a village in Derbyshire that self isolated and no one got the Black Death (one third of the population of England died of it in a 9 month period)

I don’t think that’s correct. The Derbyshire village of Eyam isolated themselves to stop the plague spreading elsewhere. About a quarter of the villagers of Eyam died of it.

The most worrying thing in all of this is that in order for the herd immunity plan to work - we need to get it. Boris doesn't care who gets it but I can almost bet he won't be one of the 40 million. He is doing what he does best, hiding away like a coward.

From social media, I have read tens of accounts like this.....

Hello all, I am writing to you from my fourth day in coronavirus quarantine, here in Barcelona, Spain. This is a message to everyone- family, friends, former colleagues, peers and teammates back home (or wherever you are in the world). Please take this virus seriously. I want to share with you what is happening here now, what the consequences are of a delayed response. I hope this will help you to understand that all jokes and toilet paper memes aside, your action needs to be taken now.

A week ago here in Spain, we only talked about coronavirus. We already had some cases, but it just didn’t seem that bad. We saw the suffering in Italy and said “That won’t happen here.” Changes were not made. People still went out on the weekend, went to the gym, went to work, to school, etc. Preventing the spread of the virus was not a priority. Fast forward just 1 WEEK: Spain is now in a state of emergency. The virus is here and it is tearing through this country. I have coronavirus. My friends have coronavirus. Parents of children have coronavirus. Teachers, students, business people, researchers, politicians, bus drivers, etc. have coronavirus. In a matter of days, the number of confirmed cases spiked from just a few hundred to well into the thousands. Hospitals and medical clinics are completely and entirely exhausted, operating at over-capacity, with quickly depleting resources and staff. Hundreds of doctors, nurses and other medical personnel have caught the virus and have been issued to quarantine. Those who remain are working 24/7, non stop. It is not just the elderly or the immunocompromised who are checking in for treatment- people of ALL ages are needing medical care. With each passing day, the death toll rises and the situation grows more severe.

In just 1 WEEK the coronavirus has caused Spain to crumble and it appears the worst has yet to come. Now having one of the fastest rates of COVID-19 contagion in the entire world, the Spanish Prime Minister stated that the number of cases could top 10,000 by early next week- almost double the current level. Just yesterday, cases rose by 1,500. If the pressure on the health care system is already unbearable, then what could possibly happen in the following days? We could ask our dear friends in Italy, as they are about a week ahead of us, with thousands of infected people trying to get into hospitals with only a few spaces left. With doctors and nurses having to CHOOSE who to save and who to let die because there are not enough medical professionals, supplies or space left to treat the growing number of patients. The Spanish government can see we are following in Italy’s footsteps and the pressure is on, to make up for a lack of action taken in the beginning.

All schools and universities have shut down. Public events and sports games have been cancelled. Roads have been blocked, entire regions of the country are under lockdown and towns and villages have been quarantined. Businesses, cafes, restaurants, gyms, bars/cubs and shopping centres have all closed, with the exception of the supermarkets selling food and pharmacies. Police roam the streets to ensure people stay inside. The rest of the world can see the risk now too- 62 countries have suspended flights from Spain.

To think, if preventative action could have been taken just 1 week before, if the mindsets of people could have shifted 1 week earlier, we could be living a very different reality right now.

To all the people back home in Canada or wherever you may be, please understand that this virus will change things very quickly. Once it becomes an issue, it is very hard to control. Being proactive and taking precautions now is absolutely necessary; every day counts! Be diligent with your health practices and be responsible with your decision making to be out in public!!! Going to the bar, the mall, the movies, the gym, etc. is truly just not worth it right now!!! Save it for a week that isn’t potentially life threatening to you or the humans around you. Push for work weeks at home and online classes!! Nothing is worth the risk. Social distancing is CRITICAL. And if you are sitting there feeling like you don’t have to be cautious because you are young/healthy, PLEASE remember that we as human beings have a responsibility to look out for one another. You being careless could lead to the loss of someone’s grandmother or grandfather, someone's parent, someone’s coworker, or someone’s friend. That is what is happening here and it’s a lot more difficult to stop now that it’s started.

I hope you take something away from this going forward. Stay home and be cautious. Start today if you haven’t already. You will make a difference!!! Please stay safe everyone. 💛

I have no idea if the government’s strategy is the right one, because I am not an expert. However it’s not ‘Boris’s’ strategy; it’s that of the Chief Medical Officer and the other medical/scientific advisers, none of which are political roles. I am utterly sick of people using this crisis to try and make political points - we are beyond that now. In any case, if Jeremy Corbyn was prime minister, he would have been given exactly the same advice. Are you saying you think he would ignore it?

A couple more points:

1. Johnson is not trying to ‘cull’ the elderly. He isn’t Hitler, and in any case most of them bloody voted for him.

2. Sneering that the govt is ‘prioritising the economy over lives’ is staggeringly shallow and ignorant. The economy IS lives. It’s not just rich bankers in Canary Wharf - it’s everyone with a job, everyone who needs benefits, everyone who relies on public services. If the economy tanks completely as a result of coronavirus it’ll make austerity look like a teddy bear’s picnic. But hey, you keep railing against the government if it makes you feel better.

I think the economical effects will actually be worse and longer lived and they are balancing everything. By that I mean jobs and small businesses and communities.

If it was me, I would keep the elderly and infirm inside until now and then do a staged release so the hospitals cope!

Bookworm, do you think that was the only advice given to Boris?

There are two experts putting their names to this, however, there are many, many more experts debunking the theory as being dangerous, risky and largely base on assumptions.

I agree with Bookworm. And I keep hearing that we are x weeks behind Italy and should be replicating what they are doing. So here are some facts.

Both the UK and Italy had their first confirmed case on 31 January.

By 15 February, Italy had three cases; the UK had nine.

On 22 February, Italy began a series of quarantine by region, initially affecting 50,000 people in Codogno, but on 8 March, this was extended to the whole of the north of Italy, affecting 16 million people. Many fled to the south. As a direct consequence, the whole country was placed in lockdown the following day.

By 12 March, Italy had 15,113 cases; the UK had 590.

As of midnight last night, Italy had 24,747 confirmed cases and 1809 deaths (a mortality rate of 7.3% of confirmed cases); the UK had 1391 cases and 35 deaths (a mortality rate of 2.5% of confirmed cases).

It might just be sheer luck that the virus is moving slower here or it might be that because we are doing things differently, it has had an impact. It might be both. I’m not an epidemiologist, not even of the armchair variety now found in abundance on Mumsnet.

What I do know, however, is that the whole purpose of the UK’s strategy is to flatten the bump so that the NHS is not overwhelmed to the point that it is so far down on its knees that it never gets back up again. And so far, our luck - or our strategy - is holding.

The numbers will change today, and tomorrow and the day after - we all know that. But right now, it's a tough balancing act and the government is following the advice of its two most senior medical experts.

He is taking advice from the expert civil servants responsible for advising government in situations like these. That’s all he can do really. I dislike Boris Johnson (I’ve been a Labour Party member on and off for 20 years). However making politicised assumptions about his actions/motives will help no one at this point.

Agree @TedsFederationRep

People need to remember that the NHS was following up all contacts of cases in the first few weeks. That undoubtedly slowed things down.

Agreed 100% @bookworm14

The thing is also that if the UK had followed everyone else. Then say come next winter another phase came along and killed millions. To then be told by the UK oh we had another idea last year but everyone else did it this way so we just followed... you would all be slating the government calling them sheep and they should have grown some balls and are murderers etc!

It’s also worth pointing out that the letter signed by ‘200 scientists’ attacking the government’s policy wasn’t as valuable as some have been claiming. twitter.com/AlastairJT/status/1238940672276783105?s=20

The most worrying thing in all of this is that in order for the herd immunity plan to work - we need to get it. Boris doesn't care who gets it but I can almost bet he won't be one of the 40 million. He is doing what he does best, hiding away like a coward.

Yes they do care who gets it. That’s why the over 70s and vulnerable will be asked to isolate.

TedsFederationRep

You only have to look at social media to see that there are many people with symptoms not being tested. Unless you're ill enough for hospital you don't get a test. Britain's number could be wrong by thousands or tens of thousands.

Britain's number could be wrong by thousands or tens of thousands.

Absolutely.

And so could Italy's.

As of yesterday, Italy carried out 124,899 tests, of which 19.8% were positive.

The UK had carried out 29,764 tests, of which 4.6% were positive.

However the mortality rate is directly related to confirmed cases, all of which were tested.

ChardonnaysPetDragon

I'm a pregnant teacher and immuo compromised. There has been no guidelines to protect people like me, I am just suppose to face 34 children tomorrow who may or may no be carriers if it. They're asymptomatic anyway so there's no way to tell.

Boris doesn't give a shit about me or anyone else in this boat.

It's not Boris, it's the medical experts.

I'm no fan of Boris, and I know it seems 'obvious' we all have to go on lockdown, but we need to look at consequences. I know the Tories are evil capitalist bastards, but it doesn't mean they just want vulnerable people to die and to get rid of old people.

OK, so we all go on lockdown. But until there is a vaccine, the virus is still out there. The economy gets totally wrecked over a long period which also endangers lives and livelihoods.

So I think there is a case for distancing, lockdown on the most vulnerable and slowing down infection in most of the population to a manageable pace. The fact is it's not without risks, it only works if things proceed as modelled.

But it seems to me that once you go on lockdown there is no turning back until there is a vaccine and that is dangerous as well.

I'm hoping the government doesn't cave to popular demand for full lockdown - by all means people should be allowed to do so if they want to and feel able, it'll help slow things, but I can see the rational, medical case for managed infection, outside of what i feel about the government.

I have no idea if the government’s strategy is the right one, because I am not an expert. However it’s not ‘Boris’s’ strategy; it’s that of the Chief Medical Officer and the other medical/scientific advisers, none of which are political roles. I am utterly sick of people using this crisis to try and make political points - we are beyond that now. In any case, if Jeremy Corbyn was prime minister, he would have been given exactly the same advice. Are you saying you think he would ignore it?

I agree with this. I have no idea if our tactic is the 'right' one or not and I didn't vote for this government but we are beyond party politics.

It’s not only the over 70s who are vulnerable. People in their 30s are on ventilators in Italy and France.

And with no underlying health conditions.

It’s not only the over 70s who are vulnerable. People in their 30s are on ventilators in Italy and France.

As there will no doubt be in the UK, I am sure. But they are very much in the minority for people in that age group and on the whole they will be people with pre-existing health vulnerabilities.

None of know how we will fare if we catch it - some will be unlucky and more severely affected than most. But let's not terrify everyone into thinking that the situation you describe is typical. It's not. We have enough on our plates without adding unnecessary fuel to the fire.

It's quite possible that lots of us have already had it and recovered, without even realising what it was.

yes, eventually the other countries are going to have to come out if lockdown or face bankruptcy and starvation