Why Italy?

[R2221]

I mean, why is Italy so badly affected? Is it because CV just started there in Europe or is it just a matter of time before every other country goes through the same cycle??

Older people I particular there may attend mass every day. Shared drinking of the wine etc

This is not true either. In most churches there is no wine given during mass as they (sensibly in my opinion!) think it is unhygienic!

High number of smokers, aging population and insanely popular ski resorts over the winter

The leading epidemiologist in Germany - the country with the really low death rate so far - has been warning against complacency. He says it's mainly bad luck that Italy got it first and we in Germany are just a few weeks behind the same trajectory.
I think the death rate will stay lower than some other countries though, as that really does seem to be at least partially dependent on how good the health system is - and Germany has three times as many intensive care beds as Italy (and I think way more than the UK).

The stereotyping is useful for making everyone else think "ah that's OK then, it won't happen to me"
The scientific hypothesis is more inclusive.
The north west zones first hot are massively industrial with poor air quality making people there in any case more susceptible to respiratory issues.
Lots of import/export businesses, and virtually open borders with 5 other countries.
Ski season with only 10 days ago people (in the UK and on MN for starters) weren't going to lose that Ryanair flight money when it's just flu.
Patient zero took a long time to find, because he wasn't Italian.
The govt closed Codogno (patient 1) to the world and they are now clear BUT the govt underestimated it. They acted in steps, but until this last 10 days life apart from the red zone went on.

It hits countries in the same way, the same age groups (generally) with the same projectory. Wuhan's death rate was about 6% of those infected. Italy's on Friday was 7.2 but fell yesterday to 5.9.

It's really nothing to do with being handy at making homemade pizza (which very few people do these days ) or kissing your ancient grandmother.

If it was also a Chinese import then the town of Prato (one of, if not the) biggest Chinese communities outside of China would have been the hotspot.

Bad luck and international connectedness.

People don't really understand that last bit. When Germany initially announced it was not closing its border with Italy everyone had a laugh and pointed out that Germany doesn't have a border with Italy. But every airport is a border with every country it serves. It's a global world.

Global connectedness is not a bad thing, it also allows countries to work together to tackle issues like this. It doesn't work if you try to take the economic benefits in isolation without the international cooperation and responsibility bit. It's going to be interesting to see how the UK copes without access to the regional epidemic warning system, shared vaccine research, shared vaccine and medicine regulation and approval, and the regional group vaccine and medicine bulk buying discounts.

Northern Italy is heavily industrialised but had lots of empty factories which they've allowed Chinese companies to take over cheaply. Their workers went back to China for New Year and bought it back with them - is the theory. Who knows

Italy isn’t special. We will be the same as Italy in terms of overwhelming cases in a week or 10 days.

I’ve read that one theory is that the large number of Chinese employed in the clothes manufacturing industry around Milan (apparently imported workers from China but can label clothes as ‘Made in Italy) many of whom travelled home to China for Chinese New Year then back to Italy some bringing the virus with them.

It was, very simply, spreading like wildfire and nobody realised.
By the time the did, it was too late.
Add in the fact that for 80% it's "only flu" the govt took a while to act.

You'd think other countries would be looking to Italy and thinking "gosh, mustn't let that happen here" wouldn't you?

Seventy- sono Io. Il libro.

The pasta/pizza comment made me chuckle too!

Only peasants use their hands. Proper cooks use their magic powers.

Seventy- sono Io. Il libro

Un piccolo aiuto? Scusa, non capisco. Il libro che ho messo su FB?

Please be careful when suggesting that blame lies with foreigners, immigrants, or China.

One of the lessons to be learned from previous epidemics is the danger of incorrectly naming/blaming epidemics ad pandemics. Spanish 'flu didn't start in Spain. It probably started in the trenches of WW1 and was spread by sending troops back from the front to recuperate. Spain was just the Italy/China of its time.

Several reasons:

1. They have one of the highest % of elderly people in the entire world so obviously, that means more deaths/strain on health services

1. The culture. Ive been to Italy many times and love it and they are very tactile people- lots of touching, kissing, hugging etc- so viral transmission would be much easier

1. They either didnt or couldn't find patient zero so they weren't able to trace the people they came into contact with (as we did in UK) so right from the start it was transmitting quickly.

1. I believe it started way before it "officially" took hold. Press reports suggest there were a LOT of unexplained cases of pneumonia right at the beginning of the year in those regions before testing began. I think it was CV then.

1. Studies suggest Covid 19 spreads at its peak at 8 celsius. Then above that, it declines the hotter it gets. Italy was right at 8 celsius for much of this time so from a weather point of view, conditions were perfect.

Italy was the perfect storm of contributing factors, sadly.

I live part time in Italy and have a lot of friends There.

1. Ther was a concentration of infection in one city. This leads to overwhelm and spread.

1. People are travelling home or to second homes and bring it with them. Heading back to family or to second homes in less congested areas e.g from Milan to rimini.

I think people may say "Why UK" soon too. The difference being we know why in our case.

I think "why Italy" is actually just a way of saying "why we are special and it won't happen to us"
Which is complacent and negligent. It IS happening to us, we are just 10 days behind. Those people have already been infected and are currently incubating it, or not had it for long enough to reach hospital yet. We are not testing for community spread so our numbers are not indicative. We were only testing on very strict criteria which was useless, and now only testing hospital admissions.
Italy is only 10 days ahead because they did not find one person who spread it around, for some time. We also had lots of initial cases which we did manage to spread but some slipped through and we now also have community spread.... Watch this space

1. Also large numbers of elderly victims and the largest number of older people after Japan. Some of these are a little reckless woth their own health and safety not seeming to understand its impact on others. We are all potential carriers. The less we had about, the better.

1. Ditto about 8 degrees. As pp said.

Checks the temp here at the mo? Oh look! 8 degrees.

It would be interesting to track CV rates according to weather. I looked at the graphs for Italy and UK and they both showed a similar pattern- spiked increase one weekend, much less the next, another spike the weekend after, then a lull again etc
I wonder if that could be correlated to it being 8 degrees on the weekends it spiked.
Flu season usually ends at the beginning of April. I'm hoping that CV will become much more vulnerable once temperatures start rising.

There is a very large Chinese community in Italy .They have taken over a lot of the textile industry there and to a lesser extent the Automotive Industry. Much of the clothing sold in HM ,Primark is manufactured there and the 'Made in Italy' clothing found at cheaper shops.Add to that the influx and travel to and from Italy of Chinese Citizens for Chinese New Year.

There was an interesting discussion on the bbc website about the differences between the itslian and uk outbreaks
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51858987

There was an interesting discussion on the bbc website about the differences between the itslian and uk outbreaks

Yes- I personally do not believe we will end up like Italy. Thats not wishful thinking, but based on stats. We had MORE cases of CV at one point than Italy did. We were level pegging. Then Italy's cases soared.

Seventy, prenotamisultrenoperilsud

It's impossible to say whether more people actually have it in Italy than anywhere else . Depends on how many people have been tested.

If it was also a Chinese import then the town of Prato (one of, if not the) biggest Chinese communities outside of China would have been the hotspot.

Everyone ignoring this very accurate statement! There is no evidence that the outbreak started with Italy's Chinese community.

www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-scientists/coronavirus-may-have-reached-italy-from-germany-scientists-say-idUSKBN20Y35B

I think it's because of their huge tourism. Many, many people holiday there , have weekend breaks,
and some are passing through. They are huge for skiing. The first case was back in February and they kept everything open. They knew what was to come. By the last week in February people who tested positive in other countries had visited Italy, still everything was kept open. Flights were still going in and out as normal. People from all over the world were allowed in. Personally I think they reacted too late. They could have acted sooner. People still traveled because it was a catch 22 situation, the country wasn't banning flights, so people couldn't claim on their holidays and rather than loose money they went on their holiday. They are also know to have a huge elderly population and it does seem that the elderly are hit the worst.