To think a total lockdown is unlikely?

[DreamInLavender]

It's just that, given the fact a huge chunk of the UK have an 'I'm alright Jack' attitude, surely a total lockdown won't happen? We also aren't use to just doing what we're told and following leadership without question and loyalty like the Chinese.

You can't force people to stay inside and I don't think they will.

Who on earth is going to police all of this?

I dare not leave my own house in this area. Lots of do gooders who will tut!

DS is scheduled to do Army selection in what is the likely shutdown period. I wonder if that would go ahead? Seems perverse to stop recruiting soldiers but otoh the Army is going to be busy!

So many knock on effects.

I agree there's probably a stepped plan going into Easter. Schools would be closed anyway so working parents will have already anticipated that. Those who can work from home and essential personnel will hopefully still have childcare in place.

No plan is going to be ideal and every option has downsides. It's balancing the risk of the virus and the risk of economic ruin for a lot of people. Both are harmful.

If their strategy is herd immunity then no they will not go with a total lockdown.
They’ll do timed lockdowns to control the rate of spread (not saying this will work).

So if they feel the rate of infection is getting out of control then they’ll close the schools but I think this will be their last resort. Or if there’s a cluster in a certain town (though with their lack of testing they won’t find any clusters tbf).

You can’t lockdown forever and unless we stamp out every case on the planet then it won’t work? We’ll just see reinfection when you release everyone.

think a total lockdown is inevitable and part of the plan

I don’t think a lockdown fits in with anything the government has said so far.

They WANT people to get it and spread it to get herd immunity. Lock down is completely against everything they have said.

Still disucssions about whether we'll be in "lockdown" soon or not and it still seems nobody is able to define its meaning. What do you actually mean by "lockdown"?

There were loads of inferences in yesterday's presentations that many more restrictions are coming fedup21. What else will lockdown look like?

Can someone explain what happens when the lockdowns are lifted? Not being goady. Just genuinely confused by the whole situation. Unless everyone in the whole world is locked down at the same time for the same amount of time then surely its just delaying the inevitable, especially since so many that are infected are asymptomatic thus hard to identify and isolate unless everyone in the whole world is tested (at the same time). And testing is like an mot. You pass and are negative but anything could happen immediately after. Once the lockdowns are lifted will it not be the case that we're a few months further down the line and back to square one? But just with fucked economies.

Lock down won't stop people getting it, it will help slow the rate of infection at the peak. We still the majority getting it and herd immunity (which is inevitable whatever we do) but aim not to have everyone ill at once.

Yes, soula. Lockdown only aims to slow the rate of infection and spread the cases out. It can't prevent it unless were staying locked down forevermore.

I agree that it will be over the Easter break, I’ve been thinking that for a few days now. It will be easy to extend school holidays for a week or so, then close theme parks, major attractions etc, and places like caravan parks and holiday camps giving holiday makers nowhere to go, and then ‘strongly advise’ we all stay home for few days over Easter.
I work in touristy area and it’s starting to bite in my place of work with hours being cut, head office making their presence felt etc. We are struggling to get paper products, loo roll, soap etc from big suppliers and also some key food items from wholesalers. Don’t know how long we can operate in this situation. Tbh the last thing we need is an influx of thousands of people from all round the country! Maybe we DO need a shutdown!

There were loads of inferences in yesterday's presentations that many more restrictions are coming fedup21. What else will lockdown look like?

That sounded like restricting larger gatherings.

I would say lockdown was school closures and mass WFH.

Can someone explain what happens when the lockdowns are lifted?

Lockdown doesn't mean mean nobody ever goes out ever. It just means things are restricted - so schools/universities/cinemas/theatres are all closed. Unnecessary shops and businesses are closed. People are allowed to the supermarket and pharmacy and GP but only by appointment and only in limited numbers. So you just have to wait outside until you can go in etc.

It's impossible to lock everyone in their homes because people still need to be fed. So shops need to open, which means delivery drivers and retail workers need to be able leave their homes. GP surgeries and hospitals still need to open which also means receptionists, admin staff, cleaners, porters etc. need to get to work. Which also means petrol stations need to open. And as not everyone drives, taxis and public transport still needs to run, which is another section of the population that needs to be able to leave their homes.

You can't force people to stay inside and I don't think they will.
I'm in Italy and most people are inside. Everyone is taking it seriously now. If you had told me this a couple of weeks ago I'd never have believed it.

Once people start seeing mass deaths it will be different. Even then, I doubt they’d be able to get more than 3 weeks at the very most. Which is why it’s so important not to go into lockdown prematurely.

Why would you want to go out though? Have you not seen China and Italy? People have just been sensible and only gone out for essential supplies.

But they're still going out, which is the point. Locking everyone in their homes is impossible because you still need people to go work. There needs to be staff in shops. Delivery drivers. People operating petrol stations. HGV drivers to get food around the country. Hospitals and GP surgeries still need receptionists and admin staff. What about people working for the electric companies, or gas board, or the water companies? People still need electric and fresh water etc. So many people will still need to get to work.

Restricted movement, isolation and social distancing? Sure, but a total lockdown just won't work, for numerous reasons.

Are we going to get to a point where some people are forced to stay in and some people (supermarket staff, delivery drivers, quite apart from NHS staff) are forced to out , even though we all know they'd be in peril?

The lockdown in China has only run about 6 weeks.
In the last 4 weeks, active cases have dropped from 60,000 to 12,000. They are not fucking about with this and after the lockdown finishes will likely ensure that, if needs be, all future visitors to China take a test for the virus before touching down.
They will do what is necessary, at least until a vaccine is created.
Our response, in contrast, has been utterly useless and defeatist bordering on criminal.

They are possibly now more active cases in the UK than in China. Ponder that for a moment. It’s a fucking disgrace.

The next rung up the ladder is mass gatherings and non essential business travel from normal place of work.
Rung after is mass work from home.
Rung after is essential workers only (broad definition)
Rung after is essential only.
Last two are effectively lock down.

Wuhan looks like a bloody scary place to be. The first known brit to get COVID 19 videod the harsh realities - He couldn't even get sauce or juice drinks. They literally handed people their food on a stick and you didn't choose what you got. They called out your number and then you got it and went back inside again. Scary

He couldn't even get sauce? Is that meant to say something else?

I think OP means they could only have food that can be delivered by stick, which would rule out anything in a sauce? Although handling food this way doesn't seem the cleverest thing to do in a health and hygiene crisis

I mean that they couldn't choose the contents of their packages at all. So couldn't request juice, specific fruits or veg, certain items of any variety. You get what you're given and that's that. Bloody scary

Arlene Foster says NI schools will not be closed immediately, but when they do "they will close for at least 16 weeks"
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-updates-arlene-foster-says-schools-should-prepare-to-close-for-16-weeks-as-five-new-northern-ireland-cases-confirmed-39044383.html