Would school closures just postpone inevitable?

[TheresMoreofUs]

So we keep our kids off school, isolate ourselves to stop the spread, numbers plateau, start going down etc.., But If the virus is still ‘out there’ won’t we all just start getting it again, numbers rising etc when we emerge from our isolation? In 2, 3 weeks?Until there’s a treatment or vacccine/anti-viral we are all going to be susceptible to catching it.

Is the best approach the one the UK is taking - as a harsh as it is - with a recognition that lots of people are going to get it, some will be badly effected, but there’s no way to avoid that sadly. And in the meantime a vast amount of the population will have caught it, recovered and then be immune?

So let’s not go crazy and disrupt life/economy too much because we’re looking at 3 months before it starts to die out?

DOES the virus die in hot weather - is that why we’re staggering the disruption because we think, come June, in our glorious hot summer (ha!) the increased temperatures will make it all go away?

Just trying to understand the UK’s approach (and also whether I should send my children into school on Monday even without official approval?)

Our approach is going to ensure that thousands of people catch it and die.

I would rather follow WHO advice; close the schools, ban large gatherings, enable widespread testing and track the virus closely.

DOES the virus die in hot weather

Iran says no.

We are pushing the peak to the summer not because of the weather, but because seasonal flu peaks in the winter and therefore NHS beds will be freed up from flu cases.

The nhs will be in a better state to cope in the summer. The winter always stretches the nhs as it is. Nothing to do with weather.

OK so it’s a resource (beds/equipment) advantage to push the most cases into Summer. Because the ‘seasonally’ affected existing flu (that obviously dies down over Summer - why??) is still placing demands on the beds/equipment that we desperately need to treat Coronavirus patients now.

One factor I don’t understand is why the UK Government aren’t implementing a huge investment in testing. How we are we going to analyse data on who’s got it, who’s had it etc.., if we’re only now testing people who end up feeling ill enough to be hospitalised. How will we know whether people can get it twice (that would test the herd immunity theory surely) Data is power. But we seemed to be ducking out of this powerful analysing tool. It would help test whether out theory us right too wouldn’t it?

OP I struggle with the lack of testing too. I know they can't test everyone, but there must be a middle ground. Where will the data come from?

lOne factor I don’t understand is why the UK Government aren’t implementing a huge investment in testing

I would guess it’s so they can say...

Oooh look, things aren’t that bad here-our cases are way behind everyone else’s.

Ooh look, that must mean my message of, ‘wash your hands and everything is just fine’ is working! I told you we didn’t need to close the schools!!’

You seem happy to let your vulnerable relatives possibly die from the virus to stick to the plan.

Thanks for taking the hit, I'd rather mine isolated themselves.

why the UK Government aren’t implementing a huge investment in testing.

They don’t have the resources.

It's to prevent the infection spreading as quickly as possible,
The governments concern, as I see it, is that the economy is more valuable to them than people's lives.

Let's say we have 50 more beds available per hospital in the summer than the winter. That's not going to make a jot of difference if we have thousands of people per hospital needing those beds.

This is the UK swine flu graph from 2009. Schools closed for six weeks (summer holidays) and then the virus made a resurgence. Any peak that high would mean that the NHS would be unable to cope, which is what ‘flattening the curve’ is about.

The Government says it would just postpone it.

WHO, multiple governments and lots and lots of scientists say it is possible to eradicate this virus with tough measures.