If 80% of us could get it, who are the 20%?

[Everydaylife]

If 60-80% of us are likely to get the virus (worst case scenario), who are the rest?

Are they people who can literally self-isolate indefinitely? What would you have to do to avoid it forever? Is that possible?

Maybe people who live in remoter/very rural parts of the UK? And those who are just lucky plus practice good hygiene etc..

Yes true about living very rural. You would have to be pretty self-sufficient re food.

Rural, live alone, limited social interaction.

The rest of ya will get a form of it.

Ya? I typed us!

I think the theory is that once you have had it and recovered from it, you can no longer catch it and spread it to others.
Herd immunity doesn't need everyone to catch it to stop a disease spreading.
Like controlled burning of some areas of heathland, to prevent an accidental fire spreading

Human firebreaks.

I say theory, who knows how it will actually play out.
Those who need to isolate for their own protection will need to do so for a long time, but not indefinitely.

It is shit, though. I'm so, so sorry for those who will suffer.

I don't think 100% of any population ever get a virus no matter how contagious. 80% sounds very high, a lot higher than things like the plague which are remembered for being deadly killers. Obviously the difference being the death rate being considerably higher. I think 80% is a very worrying number, especially if we see the 7.8% death rate that Italy have. Even with a 2% death rate it's a lot of people.

I've just done the maths and it's come out as over a million deaths. Please somebody tell me my maths is wrong (and what 2% of the 80% of 66.44 million people is)

But there is no immunity with this virus, so I don't understand the plan

The Gov wants us to get it, I only hope Boris and his 2 scientists are first in line in exposing themselves to it, to set an example, ya know

This might be a far fetched theory, but we think we've already had it in this household, but it was back in December. DP and DS had fevers and really bad coughs. DS recovered fine but DP is asthmatic and had a severe chest infection. He was put on steroids. I didn't get ill at all.

I've been told there are people on twitter saying they think they already had it in December /January, just no one was really noticing it at that point.

That death rate will rocket up once we run out of iCU beds, like poor Italy.

I think for the UK that is about when 5% of the pop get it? No more icu beds, and critical cases that might have survived, and serious cases that would have survived with some medical care will die when there is none to go around. Won't just be the elderly.

If the UK government holds it's course I'd be very surprised to see under 2 million deaths by the time it is all over (if it ever is).

The 20% will be the Mumsnetters accusing people already in lockdown countries of lying and scaremongering and still saying "it's like flu" and "it's actually quite nice, I can stay home and write my book"

I imagine that that Special Science of Boris's will protect them.

And what about the 30% of survivors who end up with pulmonary fibrosis which has a 3-5 life expectancy??

3-5 year life expectancy

30% of people who have had it and survived and not necessarily the people who had a severe case. So this could include children.

My brother will be one of the 20%. He never catches anything. He’s in his mid 40’s and has had 3 very mild colds in his entire life. That’s it. He didn't catch chicken pox/ measles/ German measles/ mumps etc when we all had it as children. He was definitely exposed and should have got them but he is just one of those people. My dad was the same. He got the odd mild cold but that was about it. He did die young due to heart problems (strong family history) but that’s another story.

I live on my own and don't leave the house due to chronic illness. I would have thought people like me won't catch it. I have an Ocado order which comes once a week, so I guess the only way I would catch it is via the delivery man or the shopping bags etc.

@WhyNotMe40 do you have a link for the 30% figure?

Do you not have carers Ten?

Source for claims about 30% of infected suffering pulmonary fibrosis please?

What I read was that in following up with a dozen recovered people, 2-3 were out of breath if they walked quickly. That is firstly a tiny sample, but it will be some time before we will know whether it's a long-term issue or whether it just takes a bit of time to fully recover from the effects of Covid-19.

Bear in mind that the statistics will include only those who have been tested.

Currently, in the UK, people are only being tested if they have definitely been in contact with the virus.

If, for example, only 50% are tested, then the official stats will record at most only 50% infected even if everyone tested is positive.

Very different to wondering what percentage of people will actually be infected and whose immune systems will be unable to fight it off.

@DonnaDarko I think it's been round for longer than has been in the news. I was very poorly (unusual for me) in early December. My temp went up to 40.9. I stayed in bed for a week away from everyone. Dry cough, very weak, bouts of breathlessness. It was the fever that knocked me off my feet. I drank copious amounts of honey, lemon and fresh ginger. I lost a stone in weight as didn't eat for a week.

All in all, it took me a month to recover wholly. No runs or streams of snot. I work in an environment where there are lots of international students.

There is evidence of long term damage, which probably will lead to pulmonary fibrosis. I apologise for my overstated post above, I am so upset about the government lack of response and lack of long term thoui to infecting 80 % of the survivors that I'm not being as rational Asni should.

We do know however that SARS did indeed cause long term Lung damage to the survivors

I can't claim I found these but I have read most of Dean Koontz books...
Conspiracy theory galore!