Herd Immunity?

[alloutoffucks]

The UK approach is for most people to get this virus and try to create herd immunity. Herd immunity is being talked about as if it means that everyone who is still alive will be immune to this virus. But is that true?

I would love the opinions of someone who really understands this.

Because as far as I can see the virus has already mutated. Won't this mean that we just get a version of this virus every so often in the UK just as we get with flu? And like flu it would just continue to kill people who become in later years elderly and vulnerable?
Or have I misunderstood this all?

This is trending on Twitter at the moment under #herdimmunity

Someone has tweeted: •They don't know that yet. They don't know if it's biphasal or can remain dormant and reoccur, much like coldsores or shingles.

Way too many gaps in our knowledge and understanding at the mo. I'm no expert, but given those gaps herd immunity seems like a risky strategy.•

Also just listened to this podcast with Patrick Vallance this morning. twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1238380109746311168

posted by Laura Kuenssberg. I think it was supposed to reassure.

I just could not here him commit at any point with any confidence that we can become immune to this thing.

Found it far from reassuring.

Thanks. I hadn't even considered it becoming dormant like cold sores. Yes it is a risky approach.

hear

Cold sores and shingles are caused by herpesvirus not coronaviruses. The coronaviruses are the cold/flu viruses and there's no indication that they behave like herpesviruses and become dormant so that's a rather bizarre analogy... herpesviruses target the nervous system specifically. Coronaviruses do not.

I think there's a lot of uninformed supposition. All the strains of flu that we currently experience were outbreaks once - this will likely be similar

I understand that it is does not cause cold sores and shingles. The issue is how it behaves. Too little is known.
If it does behave like flu viruses that would mean it will mutate and continue to kill people every year. So the idea of herd immunity would be totally bogus.

But why on earth do you think it would behave like a herpesvirus?
That's a rather arbitrary stretch!

And herd immunity refers to this pandemic. Once we reach 60% it becomes manageable. No one's expecting it to disappear forever, it's a case of managing it sensibly

Not in terms of affecting the nervous system, but in terms of remaining dormant and reactivating.
It is less likely not to, but it is a gamble. Because no one knows.
Much more likely to be a virus that could have been eradicated, and now will become another virus that will circulate every year killing some people.

@Veterinari I can guarantee that most people think this means it will disappear for ever.
It is a shit strategy.

herpesviruses target the nervous system specifically. Coronaviruses do not

Not strictly true. There is evidence that covid19 was found in the spine of a deceased patient and it had actually affected his nervous system. We don’t know if it targeted it specifically or it was an after effect. I remember this case well because DH has a neurological condition and it scared the shit out of him.

But why on earth do you think it would behave like a herpesvirus? confused
That's a rather arbitrary stretch!

My point though was to illustrate that viruses can remain dormant and reoccur thoughout a carriers lifetime. We don't yet know if this is the case with COVID.

Isn't that kind of what happens with HIV?

Yes - that must be why they are trialing HIV drugs to see if they work on Covid-19.

So yes it could become dormant and re emerge. Lets hope not. But it is a gamble.

Can anyone reassure me that if you have it once you are ok? I read about people getting it twice and that has really freaked me out.

Thing is, the common cold viruses that are rampant amongst Western populations and cause very little harm, can be fatal to remote/uncontacted tribes who have never encountered them before. That's fairly well documented isn't it?

Presumably, over time, Covid19 will become a particularly nasty strain that circulates and causes problems for some people but isn't the novel virus it is now so doesn't pose the same level of threat. At the moment it's the first time anyone has ever encountered this strain. That is always likely to be a problem, combined with the fact we know very little about it because it's a novel strain of coronoavirus.

There have been suggestions it’s biphasal, based on recurrent cases in China. Too early to tell.

More significantly minor mutations may mean we can get it again and we do not develop lifelong immunity to the four coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

*There have been suggestions it’s biphasal, based on recurrent cases in China. Too early to tell.

More significantly minor mutations may mean we can get it again and we do not develop lifelong immunity to the four coronaviruses that cause the common cold.*

If this is the case - that means Herd immunity (with regards to our governments approach to this) is a fallacy, doesn't it?

For reference:

“ Along with his research associate Marc Desforges, Professor Talbot worked on a study recently published in Nature Communications about the ways in which coronaviruses adapt and evolve, becoming ever more effective at infecting hosts without being defeated by the immune system.

The small, spiky spheres, the coronaviruses are closely monitored by public health agencies, since they're able to be transmitted between species and some have a high potential mortality rate. Both SARS and MERS are caused by coronaviruses. Their ability to adapt to new environments seems due in part to the spikes on the surface of the virus--more specifically, a small, strategic part of the proteins that form those spikes.

The spikes are made up of S proteins (S for spike). A specific part of the spike seems to allow the virus to attach itself to host cells. The spike's RBD (receptor binding domain), which initiates the interaction between cell and virus, is essential for infection. But RBDs are targeted by antibodies that neutralize the virus and allow the immune system to flush it out of the host's system.

Coronaviruses are thus faced with an evolutionary problem. They can't infect cells without an RBD, which needs to be exposed so that it can latch onto cells. But the RBD needs to be masked to avoid being targeted by antibodies.

In response, the coronavirus has developed a mechanism that helps it survive, and thrive. The RBD is made up of three parts that vary widely between strains. Thanks to this variation, antibodies are unable to detect new strains, whereas RBDs retainand even improvetheir affinity for the target cell. Plus, RBDs alternate between visible and masked states.”

www.technologynetworks.com/immunology/news/why-dont-we-ever-develop-immunity-against-the-common-cold-294551

Can someone please point me in the direction of ANY evidence that this virus has any form of dormancy it behaves remotely like herpes or immunodeficiency viruses?

Or is it actually just hysterical speculation by people who think that just because it's a virus it myst therefore behave like other totally unrelated viruses?

@Veterinari Of course there is no evidence that the virus is dormant and reemerges. There are suggestions this may have happened. Those cases may end up being falsely reported. The point is that we don't know with this virus, and neither do the Government. It is a gamble.

This discusses herd immunity from about 18:40.

Basically regardless of biological unknown there are mathematical knowns. There is a relationship between R0 and percentage of population that needs to be immune. An R0 of 4 would be 75% threshold.

@Veterinari

“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” said Philip Tierno Jr., Professor of Microbiology and Pathology at NYU School of Medicine.

www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/japanese-woman-confirmed-as-coronavirus-case-for-2nd-time-weeks-after-initial-recovery.html

Also:

clinowl.com/cause-analysis-and-treatment-strategies-of-recurrence-with-novel-coronavirus-pneumonia-covid-19-patients-after-discharge-from-hospital/

Right so just speculation and hysteria then?
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-people-being-re-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-after-initial-recovery-e-g-case-reported-in-japan-where-a-woman-has-been-confirmed-as-a-coronavirus-case-for-2nd-time/

What is the point of this thread?