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Actual chances of getting CV-19

8 replies

Gemm83 · 12/03/2020 13:42

Does anyone actually know... Percentage wise as to how much of the country are likely to be infected?

Is it an absolute certainty that everyone is going to get it?

OP posts:
dameofdilemma · 12/03/2020 13:46

No one knows but given it is highly infectious and most people don’t live alone on a remote island for one, it’s reasonable to assume one might catch it.

Look at the stats for the percentage that have only mild symptoms though. Those stats may even be higher as many may not be recorded as having had CV at all.

Parkandride · 12/03/2020 13:46

In China it was about 0.005% if my maths is right.
Obviously hugely bigger land wise and more draconian lockdown measures likely

NoMorePoliticsPlease · 12/03/2020 13:50

Difficult to say when many of our cases will not be tested/reported

Gemm83 · 12/03/2020 13:52

Thanks just looking at numbers. I need to stop as my anxiety about it is through the roof at the moment! 😔😏

Looking good for China though only 7 new cases yesterday. Lowest ever recorded daily cases.

OP posts:
GoodJobSteve · 12/03/2020 13:54

Gov 'worst case' was 80% of population to eventually get it.

Baaaahhhhh · 12/03/2020 14:01

27.5k tested versus 460 found - so by those stats less than 0.02%. Of those who have it, 8 have died, so another less than 0.02%.

The unknowns of course, how many have it without being tested, and how many will eventually get it, are unknown.

brilliotic · 12/03/2020 14:35

No, even with zero intervention, not everybody gets a new virus. I think the figure is something like 60-80% of the population.

And these 60-80% are not going to all get it right now. But if you don't get it now, then chances are that you will get it in a couple of months, or in half a year, or next winter. The chances that you will not get it at all are perhaps one in three or one in four.

The good news is that if you are one of the two in three or three in four who do get it (at some point), then the chances are hugely in your favour that it will be a mild disease.

If you do catch it, but manage to delay catching it until the worst crisis (pressure on NHS) is over, then even if you are one of the unlucky ones who need hospital care, chances are overwhelmingly in your favour that you will be treated adequately and get better.

The worst odds would probably be if you catch it in the next week or four, and end up being the one-in-six (or so) of those who catch it, who require hospital treatment and ventilation, sometime in April; then if you are older and/or particularly vulnerable, you might not be given the care you need (because the resources would be prioritized for younger/healthier people), which would drastically reduce your survival chances.

So the likelihood is that you will get it at some point - most people will, but not all.

But there are very, very good reasons to try to avoid getting it right now/in the next month. Any precautions you take now help you, and help slow the spread overall so help everybody else as well.

UsernameUnknownn · 12/03/2020 14:42

I think a lot of the population will get it but we won't all get it as bad as each other. Some might even be managed at home. Not all of the people who have the virus are hospitalised

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