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A scientific discussion about COVID-19

46 replies

OnTheEdgeOfTheNight · 11/03/2020 15:02

If anyone is looking for a scientific discussion about COVID-19, reddit has some good resources.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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OnTheEdgeOfTheNight · 15/03/2020 13:08

Dysregulation of immune response in patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa248/5803306

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OnTheEdgeOfTheNight · 15/03/2020 15:51

myprivacy.dpgmedia.net/?siteKey=V9f6VUvlHxq9wKIN&callbackUrl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.ad.nl%2fprivacy-gate%2faccept%3fredirectUri%3d%252fdossier-coronavirus%252f40-a-50-nederlandse-coronapatienten-op-intensive-cares-meer-dan-de-helft-is-onder-de-vijftig%257ea058aad2%252f

Via Google Translate

40 to 50 Dutch corona patients in intensive care units: "More than half are under fifty"

Today, between forty and fifty corona patients are in critical condition on Dutch intensive care units. “More than half of those patients are under fifty years old. It also includes young people. " That says chairman of the Dutch Association for Intensive Care (NVIC) Diederik Gommers, in an interview with this site.

The professor of intensive care medicine, who himself heads the IC of the Rotterdam Erasmus MC, emphasizes that it is not only the elderly who are affected by the corona virus. ,, What has mainly made the news is that older people die faster. This is about 2.5 percent of the entire population, while about 15 percent of the elderly die. But more than half of those patients are under fifty years old. It also includes young people. "

The specialist explains that it also regularly happens with regular flu that younger people end up in intensive care. "You can see that with the flu: those people get severe double-sided pneumonia." In addition, older people also choose not to be treated in intensive care.

16 year old

A 16-year-old boy from Breda is infected with the coronavirus and is currently in the intensive care unit of the Erasmus MC-Sophia Children's Hospital. His family calls on the whole of the Netherlands: "Wake up and take this virus seriously."

The IC specialist also says that admissions to intensive care because of the Covid-19 virus can take weeks. ,, In Erasmus there are two patients who have been on respiration for three weeks now. All other patients on the intensive care unit are shorter. "

Dutch doctors have also been informed about patients from Lombardy, Italy, who confirm data that young and relatively healthy people are also affected by the corona virus. ,, The youngest intubated Covid-19 patient is a girl of 16 years old. Two children with Covid-19 were admitted to the pediatric IC for observation, but did not require additional therapy, "the information circulated among Dutch physicians states. The first patient to be ventilated in that Italian region was ventilated for eighteen days, while he was relatively healthy. "It was a 38-year-old, otherwise very healthy man, who ran marathons for this."

Main risk factor for obesity

The average age of all covid-19 ic patients in Lombardy, Italy, was 70 years, according to which "the main risk factor for ic uptake is obesity". According to that information, the transfer of corona from mother to unborn children does not seem to take place. ,, This is based on three positively tested mothers (all incidentally complaint-free) who gave birth to a child which tested negative for covid-19. The same was observed in China, "according to the information distributed to Dutch specialists based on the Italian region.

Rest and control

According to Gommers, it is "busy" in the Netherlands for the departments for the most seriously ill patients, who need continuous care and monitoring, "but because precautions have been taken, it is still possible." “I have had both Den Bosch and Amphia in Breda on the line today. There is peace and control. "

Currently, according to the chairman of the IC doctors in the Netherlands, "about forty to fifty people are in intensive care units, that is the position this morning." “In Breda, for example, the large intensive care units have between eight to ten patients. That is about 30 percent of the total capacity. It is therefore a little less busy than I initially expected, "admits the chairman of the intensive care association, who warned that after this weekend not only the Brabant but also the Rotterdam intensive care would fill up.

A Chinese study, based on nearly 45,000 patients, shows that the elderly are by far the most at risk for contracting the coronavirus. The risk of death of people over 80 was nearly 15 percent, for people in their seventies this is 8 percent, for example, against 0.2 percent of infected teenagers.

Of those first 45,000 patients from the Chinese study, according to Gommers, "about 5 percent were in intensive care and about 15 percent ended up in hospital." "So it's a total of 20 percent." “There is no point in counting hospital admissions. You can only tell afterwards how deadly such a flu virus is, by comparing the number of deaths against the population. "

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peajotter · 17/03/2020 10:16

An excellent paper by epidemiologists at imperial college (a top scientific university in the uk) www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

OnTheEdgeOfTheNight · 17/03/2020 21:54

Thank you

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OnTheEdgeOfTheNight · 19/03/2020 15:20

amp.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75?__twitter_impression=true

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OnTheEdgeOfTheNight · 19/03/2020 22:52

A discussion of the Imperial College's modelling of the uk covid-19 crisis

mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1240629424871047168

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LWJ70 · 27/04/2020 08:56

@peajotter

That's a great article, they must have some UK blood serum data but are not yet ready to publish. BUT there are already two other sets of results and they are VERY SIGNIFICANT!

The second vitamin D3 blood serum study in the world has been published yesterday.
It was a study of 780 Indonesian covid patients.

These are the conclusions of the study:
• Majority of the COVID-19 cases with insufficient and deficient Vitamin D status died.
• The odds of death was higher in older and male cases with pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D levels.
• When controlling for age, sex, and comorbidity, Vitamin D status is strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality.

When compared to cases with normal Vitamin D status, death was approximately 10.12 times more likely for Vitamin D deficient cases (OR=10.12; p

LWJ70 · 27/04/2020 08:57

Here's some of the data from both studies

A scientific discussion about COVID-19
A scientific discussion about COVID-19
RoseAndRose · 27/04/2020 09:03

This (reanimated) thread looks so old alrdy, even though it's been only a few weeks.

Very prescient about public likely to lose patience with a lengthy lockdown, so having to factor that into timings

Gasp0deTheW0nderD0g · 27/04/2020 10:01

As a layperson, I'm not equipped to evaluate this article, but I wondered what other more expert people make of it.

quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/ It's about superspreader events across 28 countries. Starts off pointing out that it's still very unclear exactly how the virus is transmitted - large droplets in the air, smaller droplets in a cloud, or fomites? Interesting.

peajotter · 27/04/2020 13:32

@LWJ70 that’s a very strong result from the first paper. Almost unbelievable but I do hope it stands up to peer review. I had a quick scan and it looks legit, and a straightforward analysis, but I’m not in the field.

Do you have a link to the second paper you mention?

If this is true it would give some hope that most developing countries would have some degree of protection, particularly in Africa and India. 🙏

Why would no other studies have been published though? Is Indonesia the only country who routinely collect blood samples from patients for analysis?

oldbagface · 27/04/2020 16:02

Place marking

LWJ70 · 28/04/2020 04:48

The first two worlwide studies of vit D3 status of covi 19 patients here:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3571484

The Alipio study only used data from patients who already had their levels tested. Therefore it proves the covid 19 virus DIDN'T reduce their levels, they were already deficient BEFORE they caught the disease.

In 30 years studying science professionally, I have never seen success probabilities as high as these. These statistics are mind-bogglingly highly significant
An expert on vitamin D3 has produced a video which analyses the two blood studies and explains the outcomes and the science in simple terms. He filmed this yesterday:

oldbagface · 28/04/2020 20:46

@LWJ70 fascinating stuff. I have my family topped up on high strength vitamin D with vitamin K. Thanks for the links

zippyswife · 28/04/2020 21:34

Also place marking. Fascinating.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 28/04/2020 23:09

As a layperson, I'm not equipped to evaluate this article, but I wondered what other more expert people make of it.

Thanks for posting this, I am also a layperson but found it fascinating.

LeeMiller · 29/04/2020 09:14

The first patient to be ventilated in that Italian region was ventilated for eighteen days, while he was relatively healthy. "It was a 38-year-old, otherwise very healthy man, who ran marathons for this."
This patient, Mattia, Is now recovering at home. Lots of reports in the Italian press have discussed the fact intensive exercise can temporarily lower your immune response - he did a couple of races immediately before getting sick, and played football even when he already had a fever.

LeeMiller · 29/04/2020 09:22

The average age of all covid-19 ic patients in Lombardy, Italy, was 70 years, according to which "the main risk factor for ic uptake is obesity
what's the source for this please? This is the latest official Italian report on deaths with covid-19 (age, sex, commorbidities): www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-analysis-of-deaths
Obsesity is listed for 12% of deaths so roughly in line with population.

LWJ70 · 30/04/2020 10:16

The third study in the world that shows a clear relationship with vitamin D deficiency and covid 19 severity has been published. It's a study from Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans.
20 patients, randomly sampled.
Conclusions:

''Strikingly, 100% of intensive care patients less than 75 years old had vitamin D deficiency. Among these, 64.6% had critically low (less than 20ng/mL) and three had less than 10 ng/mL.''

Only one of the randomly sampled patients was caucasian - the other 19 were afro american and hispanic.

The study also cites 33 references of causal evidence.

Here is the link.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1.full.pdf

A number of the patients were taking vitamin D supplements. So safe sunlight exposure must be more important and the much lower deaths rates in equatorial and southern hemisphere regions are surely explained by this.

SAGE, the group of scientists that advises Public Health England only meet on Tuesdays and Thursdays, so they will not have seen this study. I doubt whether they have read the previous two conclusive blood studies.

Even if SAGE does read these three studies, they do not have any specialist molecular virologists or immunologists to professionally interpret and evaluate the scientific evidence:

'Government rushes out request for experts to work with Sage panel Notice sent to universities amid concern over lack of expertise in parts of Covid-19 advisory group''

''The government's secret science group has a shocking lack of expertise''

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/27/gaps-sage-scientific-body-scientists-medical

www.theguardian.com/science/2020/apr/29/government-rushes-out-request-for-experts-bolster-sage-panel

In the meantime thousands of elderly are dying in care homes. The government can't even be bothered to test all of them for covid and vit D def. and administer any vitamin D3 supplements. If only they knew.

LWJ70 · 10/05/2020 14:21

The sixth blood serum vitamin D study has been published today - from covid patients in Switzerland. Similar conclusions to the previous five:

All covid 19 patients were deficient in vitamin D.

The study checked the averages from the year before and checked the average of 1377 random individuals.

The covid positive patients had an average of 9.3 ng/mL whilst the negative patients had an average of 24.6 ng/mL. The average of the random individuals was also 24.6.

Interesting that Professor Jonathan Van Tam, the Public Health England scientist answering questions during yesterday's briefing is of Vietnamese decent and I 'm 100% sure that he is well aware of these blood serum studies. Yet when he was asked to put forward some advice for BAME citizens, he declined to comment, citing a lack of evidence.

Link here:
www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/5/1359/htm

A scientific discussion about COVID-19
A scientific discussion about COVID-19
lljkk · 10/05/2020 14:36

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