actual CV cases in UK are double the ones detected?

[Newleafinspring]

Read lots of reports, I get the impression that 50% the CV cases are mild or non symptoms( the actual percentage need to be checked), so from statistic point view, as we only pick up cases with symptoms, there must be the same amount of cases still out in the communities. am I right? So we have 373 cases detected yesterday, which means we actually have around 750 cases.

I think this is the reason we suddenly see Italy's case increasing so dramatically. and also Italy's cases' death rate is too high compare to other countries, also mean there are massive undetected cases.

I understand government has their plan, they want wait till maybe more cases and more deaths to apply more strict measures due to economy etc. The point is these are real people, not numbers. Who will be the first thousand and first 100 death for government to take actions?

There is already Italy's example there, can't we just learn from them? I am not asking to shut down everything, but can we take more actions, so sacrifice a bit now to save more and big loss later?

Lets talk about ask people with even minor sickness symptoms to stay at home, so may have to waste some sick leave pay, but this will slow the spreading speed.

Don't close the schools, but ask schools to only have the normal education activities for now, but stop all the school trips, to Europe, to London, stop all the school trips with indoor activities.

And other actions, like cancel all the indoor big events, ask company to allow staff to work at home if possible?

Lots of people think it is only like a flu, but it is not true. first, anyone with close contact to CV will catch it. Second, although the death rate is around 1-3% at the moment, the hospitalized case rate is high ( percentage need to be checked, but I have the impression 30-40%), last, the recovery period is long, 3-4 weeks.

I agree with you. From everything I have read, the NHS are only testing people who have travelled or knowingly been in contact with a confirmed case - so it's unlikely that cases transmitted within the UK will have been picked up.

I don't understand why the government are so reluctant to move to the next stage of the plan. I am not suggesting a full lockdown, but any steps that could be taken to reduce spread - isolation of people with symptoms, banning large gatherings, encouraging those who can to WFH - would surely be a good idea. As it stands there will be people with early symptoms who are out and about, going to work because there's no official 'sanction' to do otherwise.

Testing is increasing to 10000 a day now and includes proactive monitoring i.e. anyone with symptoms and no contact/travel history. So yes we'll see cases go up massively but should therefore make death rate as % go down. FT ran interesting comparison on countries testing rates. Iran has tested so few people that 50% of tests are positive and makes their death rate look terrible (also could be higher due to lack of resources but they have a very young population). South Korean on other hand has tested over 200000 people, so they've counted virtually every positive case, their death rate is

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51814874

This in my view would be a good thing. Lots of undetected cases means the actual death rate is lower. That is 100% my view given the rules under which we are testing.

If this could be proven than maybe the mass hysteria would stop.

I have an idea that it’s been around some time - at Christmas a LOT of people were complaining about an awful “flu” with a cough and crushing exhaustion. Some got better only to fall ill again. I do wonder if there’s been a lot of mild cases already. Well, mild....

I totally think the true number of cases is much much higher. Testing will now be rolled out to anyone in hospital with respiratory or flu like symptoms, was previously just those in ITU if no travel or contact. This is still going to miss masses of mild community cases though.

I think the number of infections is far higher than is realised- they wont test you if you've not been to a high risk area or can definitely say you've had contact with someone who has tested positive, even if you are really sick.

I am sure you are right. Plenty of people with symptoms who will not see the need to be tested and just get on with it

I read somewhere that the true number of cases is probably around 3 times the number that have ^^tested positive.

How do we know that many people have extremely mild illness or no symptoms? I have seen this widely reported as fact but not seen any evidence of this ?
I also wonder how people manage not to catch it, has pretty much everyone in Wuhan caught it, for instance ?

Well they are testing patients in ICU routinely and in some GP practices more so than in others to get a true snap shot of the spread from around the country. When you look at how many thousands of tests they are running daily compared to the number of positive cases in the UK they have to be testing somebody - it's just not who posts on Mumsnet who catches the tube and has a cold.

The numbers might be higher but they're not suppressing the true data, and as agreed if that were the case it's good for the death rates.

I agree totally.

This isn't hard to believe. I believe the first case in Jamaica is a dual citizen of the UK and Jamaica who contracted the virus in England. If the UK is exporting non-travelling cases now, that points to community spread.