To be very concerned that the UK is not yet closing schools or introducing other quarantining measures, despite clear evidence that in 1918, it reduced total deaths by as much as 50% in cities that

[effingterrified]

The 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic infected a third of the planet’s population and killed an estimated 50 million people. The number of Americans who died of the Spanish flu was greater than the number of Americans killed in both World Wars. However, not all US cities suffered as badly as others. Research published in 2007 (at a time of heightened interest due to the avian flu outbreak) explored how cities across the US had responded in 1918, and the impacts this had had on mortality rates.

St Louis and Philadelphia provide good examples of how different approaches to public health led to radically differing outcomes. In Philadelphia, where the disease struck in September, authorities were slow to realise the threat posed by the virus, and allowed large public gatherings, including a citywide parade, involving 200,000 people in support of a World War I loan drive, to take place as planned. In four months, more than 12,000 Philadelphians died, an excess death rate of 719 people for every 100,000 inhabitants
.
In St Louis, on the other hand, two weeks before Philadelphia officials began to react, the highly-experienced Health Commissioner, Dr. Max Starkloff, insisted that the city cancel all public gatherings, from football games to Halloween parties, close all schools for ten weeks, and even station police officers in department stores to keep people from lingering. St Louis made the mistake of reacting to an initial fall in cases by lifting controls, leading to a second wave of the illness; however controls were immediately reinstituted.

Excess deaths in St. Louis were 347 per 100,000 people, LESS THAN HALF the rate in Philadelphia. Early action appeared to have saved thousands of lives.

The 2007 studies used mathematical models to show that such large differences in death rates could be explained by the ways the cities carried out prevention measures, especially in their timing. Cities that instituted quarantine, closing schools and banning public gatherings and other such procedures early in the epidemic, had peak death rates 30 percent to 50 percent lower than those that did not.

A study examining the course of the epidemic in 23 cities across the US found that San Francisco, St. Louis, Milwaukee and Kansas City, Mo., had the most effective prevention programs, and time was of the essence. If restrictions were introduced too late or lifted too early, success rates declined substantially.

Why do people think death is the worst thing? Most of the rellies on my mum’s side died near 90, bedridden. I don’t want to end like that and I don’t want it for my mum either.

“ Secondary school age children are quite capable of staying home whilst parents work.”

Yes, they’ll do that, they won’t gather in large groups anywhere!

You cant compare this to Spanish flu yes similar bit not quite the same.

I think it will get worse before it gets better some months I expect. Yes Italy does not look good right now and we'll have to see what happens there. I think we ough to be locking down a bit but thats up to Boris and co;(

Still the infection rate in China has slowed right down and the recovered rate is climbing. I was reading in a few medical journals that some drugs are looking very promising they are trailing these in China right now.

So not all bad;!

Ok, so you have a stash of inhalers, but either way you say for you asthma is unlikely to be deadly. What about all the asthma sufferers that only have the usual supply, that are at a higher risk if we end up in a situation with shortages? People like my friend who died from an asthma attack.

What about those with cancer or any other condition where life depends on medication and treatment? Do you honestly think that right now they are more at risk from corona virus than they are if they are left to deal with medication shortfalls? Should they stock up on chemotherapy in advance so they can manage a few weeks or months without any?

@AutumnRose1 has anyone ever asked you if your understanding of empathy is unusual?

Death leaves the living in a horrific pain called grief...which presumably you would feel for your mum if she died?

Who will look after primary school kids?

John Campbell posts a daily video on youtube, and he has been saying clearly that we need to be proactive, not reactive , in reducing social contact and slowing down the viral spread.
I am amazed that people can’t look at Italy and see we are two weeks behind.
As individuals we need to stop all non essential travel ( holidays in the Uk or abroad etc ) and minimise social contact ( “social distancing”)
If we all do this, we will slow this virus. If we don’t, more people will die. It is that simple.
I am in my fifties. I am on the edge of Asthma, and I have an auto immune condition. My children are 15 and 12. I really do not want them to grow up without a mother, because I needed oxygen and there were no beds and nothing to help me.
The stats show clearly that where healthcare is very good, more people survive. When a healthcare service is overwhelmed, more people die. This is a disaster, and yet so many people are still acting as though we are talking about a nasty cold.
Millions died of Spanish flu. This has a higher death rate. We all need to act now to change our behaviour, to protect the most vulnerable.
I really think if children were dying in these numbers, then the reaction would be different. Over 130 people died in Italy today !

Quite a large percentage of the NHS workforce have school age children. It will be disastrous if schools start closing simply for a precautionary measure as it will mean that many vital NHS workers are not able to to go to work, they will be at home with their children. The NHS really cannot afford this if there is going to be an outbreak, they are still struggling to cope with the usual winter pressures. Closing schools might seem sensible to panicking parents but it won't be without consequence in other very important areas.
I am a nurse and the majority of my colleagues have children at school. It would be an absolute nightmare if all schools closed. On the rare days where schools close for snow the workforce in the hospital is reduced to an absolute bare minimum and it's absolute chaos - imagine that scenario everyday for weeks on end...

CFR of Spanish flu -2-3%
Current CFR in Italy - around 5%

Allowing anyone who can remove a child, to do so, would help to some degree. Fewer children in school, spacing desks more widely etc.

I tend to agree that schools will need to close and sooner is better than later in terms of reducing transmission. The evidence is fairly incontrovertible as far as I can see - and it won't just be schools it will be any large gatherings, likely cinemas and theatres will close etc. Football matches behind closed doors. The Government has actually said all of this is in their plans.

What I've found really weird about this is all the people screaming 'scaremongering' and 'hysteria' at people stating actual scientific fact. Like the fact that 1 in 10 need intensive care, well evidenced.

It's almost as if 'scaremongering' means don't tell me things I don't want to hear. The problem is, with this, everyone is going to be affected. People can carry on if they want, but they're only making everything worse for everyone.

People really need to prepare for what is likely to happen and take this seriously now. I'm surprised at the number of people that are carrying on with doing things that just aren't essential (like Crufts for example). I do understand those against closing schools because there is a big economic impact - but there really is no big downside to reducing social contact that is non-essential and yet people are just sticking their heads in the sand.

We're stopping anything involving large gatherings that isn't essential. At the moment there are penalties for taking kids out of school and DH obviously has to go to work, and his work are doing nothing to encourage WFH or social distancing - so he can't really not go in (am v annoyed at his work about their attitude). But other than that, we're not doing anything that involves being around lots of other people. We've been out on bikes etc instead this weekend.

This was posted by someone on another thread and makes a lot of sense.

Italy has the highest proportion of elderly people in Europe and the second highest worldwide after Japan, approx 24% of the population of Italy is elderly. Their current death rate is 3.5%, only 0.1% higher than what was seen in China, and we already know that this virus is more likely to be fatal for elderly people so it stands to reason that a country with a higher percentage of elderly people will see more deaths.

One of the potential reasons for a death rate of 3.4% in China is that it is one of the most highly polluted countries in the world and this causes hundred of thousands of premature deaths each year. China has more smokers than any other country. Chest problems, breathing problems, and associated illnesses are already very common. Primary healthcare is virtually non-existent for much of the population so general health is poor is many areas too. One of the other things we know about this virus is it is more likely to be fatal in people with underlying health conditions so again it stands to reason that a population with a higher than average proportion of people with underlying health conditions would suffer a higher number of deaths.

AutumnRose1 - so because you and your family don't care about dying, then it doesn't matter if hundreds of thousands of people die?

That's not a remotely normal response.

Minty the same fairies that will presumably ensure the nhs is fully staffed and equipped, produce and deliver online shopping, electric, running water etc. The same fairies that will be providing soup kitchens for all the working poor that stand to be left destitute if they can't work.

I'm popping out in a moment, I'll have a look and see if the farming fairies have arrived next door ready for morning so the online shopping fairies have food to deliver.

Ellapaella - I and lots of others would be happy to look after your children for free if schools closed.

The reality is that schools are going to close - it's a matter of when not if.

TrainspottingWelsh - what about the doctor and nurse fairies working in the fairy hospitals who will be saving your life and giving you fairy oxygen?

Or are you not bothered about them?

I and lots of others would be happy to look after your children for free if schools closed

"Here children, off you pop with the internet strangers. Have fun!"

Meanwhile, over in Reality Land, for most people who don't usually have readily available childcare there will not suddenly be a queue of people willing to take on care of their children.

I will cope how I normally do on inset days and school holidays. Not like we are a stranger to the kids being off.

Hoik - China imposed an incredibly strict quarantine (after a slow start) and that has managed to slow their numbers right down. Before that they were increasing exponentially.

What makes you think that we will keep numbers low with zero quarantine measures?

Why do you think you know how to deal with this better than WHO, who clearly advise early and preventative quarantines?

Where did I say I know better than the WHO?

JFC, are you this much hard work in real life too?

It’s very kind of you to look after other people’s children while they work, but having groups of kids being cared for together sounds strangeły like school!

It's called a discussion. A discussion is where people share different viewpoints and discuss them.

If you want an echo chamber where yours is the only viewpoint that matters and you don't have to listen to any alternatives then I suggest you start a blog.

I'm sure it will be wildly popular.

purple a lot of people use clubs and day camps for child care during holidays. These wouldn’t be operational obviously, so where would these children go?
The bottom line isn’t that, rightly or wrongly, closing schools indiscriminately is not a viable option at this stage.

Yeah thanks for the offer but I think I can safely say that I speak for the NHS workforce when I say we will not be handing our children over to complete strangers to look after so that we can go to work.

Well, that's fine, Ella, but you'd better figure something out soonish, because schools WILL be shutting within weeks.

I don't really care what you do, but I advise you to get some measures in place.

I'm a bit scared that someone who works for the NHS is unaware that closing schools is top of the list in the 'delay' stage outlined by the government.