Is this more of a threat to richer countries?

[CandleInTheTree]

I was talking to a friend who lives in a developing country. He seemed to think that it wouldn’t really make much of an impact there as they have a higher death rate in general from accidents/homicide/infectious disease and there was no large population group of baby boomers, as not too many people live to aged 60+. Much more of a younger population. Also the government is not as well functioning in general, so quarantine laws for example, wouldn’t effect the movement and daily lives of people as much.

For a first post you’re getting stuck straight in there OP! You do realise China is rich, but has poor areas too, and Iran is struggling. Quarantine laws not effecting the people’s daily lives is somehow a bonus? No I wouldn’t go into rich vs poor countries, a virus won’t discriminate. Although poor countries ultimately will have less access to basic needs

To be quite frank, how many people from this developing country do you think would have travelled to China or Italy? Or anywhere else? It's less of a risk to them because they aren't travelling and mingling with those infected to pick it up.
However, if one case gets in, they're all in danger.

I do feel like you have stacked your question with an unfair comparison though.

You do realise China is rich, but has poor areas too

China is pretty poor overall not just in some areas. The average annual income is about $8,000 compared to about $40,000 in the U.K.

I agree with your point though!

China may have poverty but it is unusual compared to many other poor countries as it does have a large older population.

I was mostly interested by his suggestion that richer countries may have more of a disruption from this virus as it affects the older population and richer countries have more older people.

Also as the death rate in richer countries is generally lower, there will be a noticeable increase in the death rate of richer countries.

@florababy84 I’m talking China as a global economy, not as a people. Unfortunately the wealth distribution is very unequal

No @CandleInTheTree you just sound like some gravy newsreader who wants to make a story with no facts, so if that’s what your ambition is you are working towards it. Don’t try to play on people’s concerns, if you want to ask people a question just ask them, they’ll probably happily answer

@Idontknowmyownname

As China has massive businesses across the world lots in developing countries. And lots of people work and travel in them.

Just back from Ghana and they are shitting a brick if it hits as not the health care infrastructure and many people live hand to mouth. They have far better screening at the airports because of this.

This virus will travel to all countries eventually. Lower income countries have very poor health systems as it is, so they will be far less able to respond to outbreaks or provide treatment to those with more severe symptoms. There are also larger populations with underlying health problems such as malnutrition, HIV, etc who will likely be more vulnerable to the virus. So if you are mainly worried about going about your daily life, perhaps it will be less affected by quarantine issues and other control leagues, but I imagine the death toll could be a lot higher in the poorer countries due to the state of the health system, their reduced ability to delay spread and the high burden of comorbidities.

I see what he is saying OP, that many of the worst affected people have already died in developing countries.
I'd say many people in those countries have badly managed health conditions so would be vulnerable.
Lack of an organised response and overcrowding could still cut a swathe through the population.
And what about countries with a high level of endemic HIV? Anything could happen there.

From Dr John Campbell, paraphrased: Older people may be more susceptible because they have more co-morbidities, it’s not clear if anyone’s analysed the data enough to split the effects of age from the effects of say, high blood pressure and diabetes. It’s likely that there’s a contribution from both age and the additional co-morbidities. This could mean big problems in countries with a large population of people who also have tuberculosis or AIDS.

Developing countries probably are at less risk because people will travel less. Once it it is in a community though, I'd expect death rates to be higher simply because the general health will be poorer.

Yes this disease will have more of an effect on devloped nations, due to demographics. This virus is particularly lethal to the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. This is why it will be pretty bad for Italy and Japan (the 2 countries with the oldest population in the world).

It will be worse in developing countries.

About 10% of patients so far have needed ICU beds. Look up the number of ICU beds per capita in developed versus developing countries. When this truly hits the developing world the casualty rates will be totally staggering. People who could have lived, but for the lack of adequate ventilation and oxygen contentration capabilities in developing-world hospitals, including the formerly young and healthy, will die by the millions.

Yes he was referring to the fact that the general death rate is already high due to accidents/homicide/infectious disease that an increase might not be so obvious.

Also as young people are less affected and the population is younger on the whole and few people make it into their 60+ years.

Obviously their economy is weaker so worldwide economic woes will affect them anyway.

Another negative is that large portions of the population are less able to access healthcare if they need it, but that is likely to be a issue in other countries that have user pay health systems (even in rich countries like USA).

But China's colonisation of infrastructure, particular in Africa and the middle East is potentially an open door.

Nothing, no cause of death in any country in the world, kills off 3% of the population in a year's time. If it did, the life expectancy would be lower than it is anywhere in the world today.

The idea that this will somehow just be a day in the life in the developing world is a comforting lie that will have a body count.

Surely in an environment where people die of old age younger, the issues associated with old age just come earlier?

I think the virus will soon reduce in virulence and just become like any other flu