The thing that most people don’t understand about the Coronavirus

[Notcontent]

I am not panicking about the Coronavirus but I am getting a bit annoyed at the people who keep saying that it’s not a big deal. What people don’t seem to understand is that:

• even 1% is actually quite a nigh mortality rate;
• it’s been estimated that while MOST people get mild symptoms about 10% ( could be higher ) need medical intervention;
• if it gets out of control and 10% of people who get it need medical help, there is no way that the NHS could cope.

The NHS is already very stretched but it can just about cope with dealing with medical emergencies. If there was a sudden dramatic increase, there is no way it would be able to cope. There is no health care system in the world that can cope with larger numbers of people suddenly getting sick.

I think most people (like me) just think there is fuck all we can do about any of it so there’s no point worrying. If we get it, we getit

Hear, hear! 👍

TBH, I'm like this for most things - Coronavirus, Brexit, Elections - what's done is done so just get on with life.

On the main panic thread, some posters say “are we ready for 2pm update?” And I think, ready with what, smelling salts?

No one’s ever really ready for the phone call that says a loved one is very ill or has died. For that, you need smelling salts, sure. Not that anyone has them! But the release of a set of figures? And the demands for postcodes....goodness, no one can admit if they get it, can they.

@MimiLaRue - well said! I wish everyone could be as sensible.

And the thing about over 70s maybe being barred from football matches - seems unfair. Are the clubs worried about being sued or something?

I don't mind the "we're all going to die anyway, I can't really do much more than wash my hands crowd."
But I do get annoyed by the "I'm just living my life as normal and am still going to go on four holidays in the next two months" crowd.

most people who get the virus will make a complete recovery

Isn't it way too early to tell? It's new. The people who have had it and recovered will just barely be out of recovery. SARS also targeted the respiratory system and some survivors were left with their health permanently damaged. Some died years later because of the vulnerabilities they got from the original virus. I don't think it's something to be too complacent about.

Also, most is a weasel word. 51% is most.

Isn't it way too early to tell?

True it's early days but studies have been carried out. According to a study in China, 80% of confirmed cases had relatively mild symptoms. 15% had symptoms that caused respiratory issues and 5% had very severe symptoms.

So, although that means a high number will have severe symptoms, on current evidence the vast majority will be far less severe cases expected to recover well.

If you find it cathartic to be anxious and obsessive then carry on, people are allowed to deal with things in their own way, what they should not do is judge others for tacking a different tack

We can only go by what we know. So far, 80% of those who contract it will get it mildly. 15% will get it badly. 5% will need serious hospital care. The numbers are uncertain so far, but it seems like most of the 5% will recover.

When it comes to public health, the most important thing is to limit the spread. The experts seem to hover around 1.5% to 2% mortality. But that's of the people who get infected.

Containment is the thing. Think of your town. 2% of your town dying is very scary. But if containment measures are in place and only 20 people get it, nobody might die at all. Bear in mind theres less than 200 people diagnosed in the UK at the moment.

Medics just want the cases spread out so they can deal with each case properly.

We are lucky. Soap and water are the best defences against this virus. And we pretty much all have access to these powerful weapons.

Your figures are a bit too optimistic, I'm afraid, 7Days. I posted this on another thread. This is from the World Health Organisations fact finding mission to China.

Basically, we have :
6.1% needing intensive care.
13.8% needing hospital care and oxygen
Approx 40% suffering from pneumonia, treatable outside of hospital
40% mild symptoms

From the report:
Most people infected with COVID-19 virus have mild disease and recover. Approximately
80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes
non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory
frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio 50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory
failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure).

If you find it cathartic to be anxious and obsessive then carry on

I merely suggested we shouldn't be too complacent

Tbh I'd rather wait and hear what happens with countries like Italy and Korea, because several things about the way China has handled this seem... not quite above board. They certainly haven't been transparent. I don't know if we can trust their studies.

So what do you want us to do?

I'm not panic buying and my eczema is horrendous already on my hands from the extra washing....

Sorry if I get sick.. wtf

@nellobee but that only includes those who we know tested positive. As it's possible (I'd go as far to suggest likely) that those who were asymptomatic or had the mildest symptoms did not present themselves for testing those figures would seem to be a worst case scenario to me.

On the cruise ship approximately half of those who tested positive for the virus had no symptoms.

In any event, it doesn't change anything, it is what it is. Unless people plan on isolating themselves for months it's very much a "carry on as normal until told not to do so whilst taking sensible precautions" situation.

I’m resigned to the fact we will catch it. I know someone whose been to Italy and now has flu like symptoms. Are they self-isolating? Have they called 111? Nope they’ve popped a couple of paracetamol, self-diagnosed a cold and gone to work as a chef in pub kitchen.

It’s clear to me the government doesn’t care about the nhs, the elderly and the sick. A cull of the vulnerable will suit this lot fine. Economy first, always.

No point panicking just carry on as normal and hope you’re one of the lucky ones.

I was speaking to someone who was very dismissive of the virus. He was full of bravado and cracking jokes about people who are worried. But out of ear shot of the others in our group he was pretty worried and said he has a young family member who's immune suppressed. I could briefly see the worry on his face before we were interupted and the mask went back on. People are coping best they can.

All of this is based on chinese data and cannot be just applied to other countries. In italy atm 11% are in intensive care and more than 50% have had to be hospitalised. Yes theyre an older population but that cant be the only reason.

Most people who tested positive and were at the time symptomatic went on to develop symptoms. WHO no longer give much credence to the tip of the iceberg theory and believe that China found most of their cases (hence why they managed to curtail their spread).
This is not a mild illness. Mild means not having pneumonia in this context. That’s a bloody low bar.

I think - and don’t shoot me- that most of the population are selfish, the whole point of self isolation and testing are altruistic so you don’t pass it on to others, but most people have a very “I’m alright, Jack” type mentality so I really don’t think - if people suspect they have it- they will stay home or bother to get tested. They will just think that’s that then and carry on as normal. Everyone getting up in arms about the official figures is pretty silly, there will be 000s of unofficial cases. I’m sure of it.

Not even 1% of the worlds population is known to have the virus at this moment in time.

I bet there are others who have such mild cases, they have not realised or they have not bothered to get tested, which means the mortality rate is even lower than the current stats.

So I don't think it is a big deal and there is really no need for panicking at this point! You're literally more likely to win the lottery or die in a car crash.

I think the use of the word ‘mild’ is misleading people to not take this seriously.
Yes no point panicking but we should all be concerned and be obsessive about hand washing.

Mild in this context is basically getting pneumonia and not dying...

COVID-19 typically causes flu-like symptoms including a fever and cough.

In some patients - particularly the elderly and others with other chronic health conditions - these symptoms can develop into pneumonia, with chest tightness, chest pain, and shortness of breath.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms/

I heard a man on the radio this morning - I didn't hear if they said his age, sounded 50's/60's. He and his wife went on a ski holiday in Italy recently and came back early due to Coronavirus.

He said they self-isolated and then, last Monday, he came down with fever/strong chills and headache. He was tested at an NHS 'pod' and found to be positive for the virus. He reported that by Thursday he felt over the worst and now was 'about 75% normal'. His wife has no symptoms so far and has been told to isolate for a further 2 weeks.

The man was told by NHS that once you are symptomatic you are no longer contagious.

So, without being complacent, there is a first-hand account of someone in a higher risk group who has had the illness and is recovering well.

I merely suggested we shouldn't be too complacent
apologies Intergalactic I actually didn't mean to sound so rude! .

I just meant that some people find it more helpful to get worked up about stuff - get it off their chest so to speak - where others find it more helpful to just keep calm, follow advice and carry orn

We were at an extra curricular event on Saturday, really busy with lots of parents and kids. One parent had a hacking cough taking ibuprofen saying that he had been ill all week joking that 'I hope it's not corona', works in a public facing role. A child on DCs team had a temperature and his DM was dosing him up with Calpol to get through the day. I don't think the penny has quite dropped with people that this thing is now in the community and life cannot carry out on as normal if we want to prevent widespread infection.

Most people seem to think getting a couple of colds and tummy bugs every year is normal - probably the same people who don't wash their hands and go out even when they're will. This virus is no different in that sense - you can take steps to prevent catching and spreading it but most people won't...

It's incredible how everyone is suddenly buying handwash like it was a new invention and not an essential in the weekly shop.

Back, that’s the kind of thing I’d avoid with a cough and temperature anyway.