Please read this article

[Booboostwo]

On the coronavirus

www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

If you don't have time to read all of it here are the highlights:

• the virus is extremely contagious because a lot of people have mild symptoms
• it is spreading despite unprecedented measures to contain it
• it will probably become endemic in the population, like flu
• a vaccine is 12-18 months away if we are being optimistic and would still need to be manufactured in high numbers.

Most importantly: this is a long term and global issue. Hoping it will go away in a few weeks or it won't come to you is unrealistic. Accepting all this and staying calm is key. Closing down schools, airports, ports, events, etc. is more likely to cause economic harm which will compound the direct coronavirus harms.

Except the measures taken in China DO seem to have been effective.

We have one example of a country which has taken stringent containment measures that appear to have worked. We have zero cases of countries that have chosen other options. There is no evidence base to say which approach is the least disruptive to the economy.

The WHO Organization has a different view on how the governments should respond and I’d listen to them first.

mobile.twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1235635005415739393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1235635005415739393&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldometers.info%2Fcoronavirus%2F

@booboostwo DON'T PANIC MR MANNERING

I am clearly not communicating my thoughts clearly so I was hoping this article would make my point, but it doesn't seem to be working. Here is one (final, I promise) attempt:

Courage is not the absence of fear, that is merely rashness. Courage is the appropriate amount of fear towards the appropriate situation in the appropriate time and manner. To judge what is appropriate one must have knowledge.

Facts about the coronavirus are shit scary. Yet we need to face them because inappropriate reactions (buying face masks, buying toilet paper, removing DC from school, shouting at BFs who traveled to Italy) are not only wasteful but counter productive. Coronavirus will raise very real challenges, we need to address those head on. Currently the biggest harm from the Coronavirus is the collapse of the world economy and the disruption of supplies of goods and medicines - this risks harming far more people than the virus itself. This is mainly caused by panic and inappropriate reactions. We should try to stop panicking and accept the reality of what is happening.

My concern is with slowing the spread so that the volume of people with it at one time is staggered, so that the NHS stands more chance of coping with the people that require medical help. Good medical care will make a difference to survival rates for serious cases.
Also, the longer we can hold it off, the more information we will have about best practise when it comes to dealing with complications.

Nothing to add, OP, but I hear you. The roots of anarchy grow from the soil of uninformed panic.

Thank you.
Very interesting article.

I am worried, but think that there is some middle ground between "it's just like flu, no need to worry at all" and "lock the door, seal up the windows, we're all doooooooommmed..."

Problem is, when situations are scary, people like to feel in control. I think that lots of people are drawn to the idea that it will be a dramatic but short term issue because they feel they can do something about that (stockpile and prepare to not leave the house for a month). The fantasy of self isolating with tinned food, ample loo roll and netflix for a month and then life going back to normal is comforting in a way, because it gives people a false sense of control. Hence the clearing of certain supermarket shelves - although it is easy to ridicule/decry them as selfish I have some sympathy for the extreme panic buyers. It gives them a false sense of control.

Life is not a 90 minute disaster film, and I suspect that the effects of a real life pandemic will play out over a long time.

From my estimation, the chance of any particular person within the UK catching Covid-19 tomorrow, or this week or next week is incredibly low.
The chance of catching it at some point this year is considerable however - if it does spread throughout the UK chances are you will get it eventually. The very vulnerable may need to live restricted, isolated lives for many months (not weeks) to avoid it. If it does spread widely then the knock on effects will be felt for years by all of us, even if you manage to avoid the virus itself.

From threads on here, many seem to think that trying to balance economic considerations against containment measures (closing all schools NOW, shutting borders etc) equates to putting money before human lives.
But poverty kills too. Economic catastrophe and a breakdown in global supply chains will result in suffering and death, so getting the response right is essential.

Maybe it will all fizzle out, but I'm bracing for the long haul.

Exactly SquishySquirmy.

It’s a good article and it raises the point that
Maybe this IS the new normal
Notwithstanding , let’s stay sensible