How bad do you think it's going to get?

[twelveminutespast]

To be honest I wasn't worried about coronavirus at first, but today has got me thinking. Obviously there are more cases and a death confirmed here in the UK but it hit a bit more close to home today when somebody I know is now off work for 2 weeks as their office has closed.

How bad do we think this is going to get? How long will it last for?

There has probably been threads on this but I've not been on Mumsnet for the past couple of weeks and have missed everything!

They say it won’t peak for at least another 3-6 months, so I can’t imagine it’s going away anytime soon and there won’t be a vaccine until next year.

Similar to what Rhoda has said above, I've read today that we could be looking at months rather than weeks for the virus to peak. The government has said that essentially this is the best "outcome" as if there are more cases coming out in the summer, then the usual winter pressures on the NHS will have eased considerably, which will allow more focus to be put onto coronavirus.

It's worrying, there's no doubt about that, and I'd be more concerned if you weren't feeling a little worried about it! But I'm trying to cope by avoiding news outlets such as the Sun/Mirror etc that are notorious for scaremongering and peddling stories that are sending people into frenzies at the supermarket/pharmacies.

P.s China has announced a day or two ago that there are more fully recovered coronavirus patients than people still infected in their country. So no matter how bad it gets, it will be temporary and the majority of us will remain healthy. Try to keep that in mind 😊

I've been worried since January :(

I get on quite well with our emergency planning team at work and according to them it’s going to get very bad.

Italy had 800 cases 5 days ago. They now have 3800. Their death rate has shot up. 148 deaths so far. Now unless people die very quickly after being tested positive, then someone somewhere is not telling the truth.

148 deaths is a lot. 4% based on positive cases.

However 3000 of those have only tested positive in the last 5 days.

If this virus miraculously stopped tomorrow and there were only 3800 cases, how many of those remaining would die?

This is at a stage when there are enough Intensive care beds and people are still dying.

At this rate of infection there will be over 100,000 people in Italy with the virus by the end of the month. There will no longer be the beds to deal with it. Unless the action they have taken is not too late,

This will get out of control very quickly and our government are telling people to wash their hands!

We need to take the action Italy have now or it will spiral.

@BentNeckLady can you elaborate? What line of work are you in?

I am worried. I realise the plan is to try to stem the tide so we don't have everyone ill at once and therefore the health service can cope. However I'm not sure if we can slow the spread enough and extend capacity enough for that to be achieved. My gut says no. I'm also worried about the economy. This is will cause fundamental damage and I believe there isn't a lot of quantitative easing potential remaining in the system to counteract it. This is maybe the first time I've ever felt genuine anxiety about a world event.