To think this coronavirus hysteria is completely OTT

[tacosplease]

I’ve just read that the NHS has declared the coronavirus “situation” a level 4 incident - the highest level of emergency.

There are only 51 known cases in Britain out of a population of 66 MILLION. None of these people have died. In the extremely unlikely event that you do catch it, the chance of death is just 2%.

So, I simply don’t understand why people are getting so hysterical about this. Far more people catch the common flu every year and no one starts panicking over that. Every time you use your car you have a 1/20,000 chance of dying yet people still drive and don’t think twice.

AIBU?

@tacosplease
Thank you. I do try and offer a sensible perspective based on my experience and also information about what is happening in China which is not reported in the media. I understand that people are anxious and fear of the unknown can be very stressful. I have left my home; my dd has lived in China since she was 2 and her whole life Is there, so I am aware how tough this situation can be.

It’s total madness. The people who should be concerned seem to just be getting on with it, while those who will likely be fine (most of the ‘preppers’ on here) are almost catatonic with panic and anxiety.

OP you do you boo. Evidently the world looks very different from that high high horse of yours. Obviously you are so much smarter than all the economists, epidemiologists, virologists, pulmonologists who have developed the models on which the government’s reaction is based. A true Einstein. Under appreciated in your time. What a crying shame.

It’s a big deal to have an easily communicable illness that can kill even 1% of people who get it, even with good medical care. Read that “ordinary” flu has death rate of about 0.1%. “Spanish flu” was estimated to have had a death rate of 2-3% and that killed hundreds of millions globally. Estimates for this virus range, but the death rate SEEMS 1% at least - so 10x that of flu.

Most of us are acquainted with several hundred people. So based on current projections, we will all know at least one person who dies from Covid-19, probably several more. Whether it's your own elderly relatives or just one of your mum's old work colleagues you haven't seen for years, who knows. Not saying this to scare people but some people don't seem to understand the reality of the threat. And that's not taking into account the societal and economic impact.

Also humans are really bad at assessing risks from statistics. People panic during pregnancy when they're told their baby has a 1:500 chance of having Down Syndrome. Yet people spend money playing the lottery when their chances of winning is miniscule. If you were told that you needed an operation and you had a 1:100 chance of dying you'd probably be worried. Yet with Covid-19 a 1-2% fatality rate is nothing to worry about?

Also, given the chronic, long term underfunding / resourcing of the NHS and social care our health and care systems wouldn’t cope with “demand”, worsening the odds for both people with the virus and other health issues.

@BeepOpsiePie
To put yer comments in perspective, I live in China and don’t know anyone who has had it, let alone died. Many of my friends are still there and have been there throughout the outbreak.

The 'fuss' has been because there was/is a chance to contain it so it isn't doing the rounds every year on top of the flu etc. This was successful with SARS so not wildly out of the question, but optimistic. That's partly why the NHS is taking it so seriously, an investment now in preventative measures will save lives down the line. It's part of a global effort as well, to be successful every country has to do it.

@constantlyseekinghappiness I completely disagree with you. I think this thread is one of the more sensible ones regarding the virus. There are definitely some people out there thriving off the drama and whipping themselves into a media induced frenzy.

@ShanghaiDiva Yes but as I understand it in China schools have been closed and social distancing enacted. People wear facemasks where possible and many are working from home. Anything I've missed? Here we are apparently increasing class sizes and washing our hands while singing the national anthem! I'm not sure you are going to get the same result...

@Faybian
Schools were closed for the holiday and remain closed. Offices etc reopened last Monday. We have also been encouraged to wash hands frequently and stay at home, although in my city we are able to leave home and some restaurants are staring to open.

Is that relaxation of the social distancing happening all over China or just in some places? Would you mind telling me what province you are in (sorry, you may have already mentioned this).

If the situation in most of China is so benign, why can NASA see a huge drop in pollution all over China as factory production has slowed, if not halted?

It seems inconceivable that as this infection was doing the rounds from early December onwards, with no restrictions whatsoever, yet so few cases? either this virus isn't very infectious or the Chinese are lying.....seeing how it has swept through Korea etc, i'll go with the latter.

@Faybian
I live in Jiangsu.
I can’t comment on the rules in other provinces, but am sure Hubei is still very strict. Some provinces have had a very small number of cases eg just one in Tibet and he recovered weeks ago.

Shanghai do you think medical orgs are overestimating worst case scenario (60 to 80%) or China is particularly good at keeping it down?

I’d be interested to see what you think, living there.

@jasjas1973
I don’t think anyone has suggested the virus is benign or that the situation in China is benign. As 80000 Chinese have been infected, your benign comment is pretty crass.
I can only comment on my experience. My dh’s Factory has been operational throughout and does not shut down for the Chinese New Year holiday (or any holiday)..Many factories do close and took time to reopen as per govt guidelines. My dh’s factory is not running at full capacity, but this is due to economic consequences of the virus, not because staff are not working. No doubt this is the same case for many factories, hence lower pollution levels.

Italy only had 20 people infected on the 21st of Feb. Less than 2 weeks later and there are 2500 cases and 80 deaths.

^
This

So assuming that we are roughly 1-2 weeks behind Italy and follow the same path I think people are right to be concerned. This is not just any old flu. I don't think hysteria is helpful but people need to take this seriously because it's those who are dismissive of the risks and don't follow advice that will cause the most harm to all of us.

@MarshaBradyo
I am not in China at the moment, but have a detailed knowledge of the rules as I was there and as residents we are regularly updated on rules regarding our re-entry and current quarantine arrangements.
There is no doubt that China has taken extraordinary measures to contain the virus and I don’t see the same measures being introduced here in the uk. On a positive note, we know more about the virus now (incubation period etc) and there is increased public awareness which hopefully means those who are infected seek and receive rapid treatment.

I have just joined a Facebook group called CoronaVirus UK updates the level of hysteria on there is off the scale. Some people are very worried and they are all feeding each other's anxiety.

Thanks for your answer Shanghai, interesting

Daily life for an expat in HK: slate.com/human-interest/2020/03/coronavirus-diaries-home-school-hong-kong.html

I just can’t see Europeans accepting this level of precaution.

I hear you @tacosplease. The nhs level up is a strategic thing, but some people are choosing to see it as evidence of definite future disaster.

The hysteria's exactly the same as during the swine flu and bird flu panics. I love Mumsnet but at times like this it can turn into an echo chamber where (presumably isolated) people wind each other up to crazy levels and post about nothing else all day long.

I'm worried but not hysterical. I can't buy hand sanitiser as the preppers have taken it all, so will be accused of being one of the people who aren't doing their bit. Obviously I can wash my hands when I'm at home, but when I'm out all day, I'm carrying on as normal.

I has posted this on another thread but it may reassure some of you.

The government are preparing for the very worst scenario (80% infection rate) based on the theory of herd immunity with no reference to the experience in china or elsewhere. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

The infection rate in china is around 80000/1.3 billion so 0.006%. They say it has peaked so after another 2 months or so could rise to 0.012% max.

The following document suggests that 4 in 5 cases are not diagnosed so based on this the infection rate in china is likely to be around 0.06% (i.e 5 × 0.012%).

It may of course be considerably higher in the UK if we don't shut down cities etc but I would doubt it would be anywhere near 80%
www.cato.org/blog/misleading-arithmetic-covid-19-death-rates

Also the document above shows that as the unreported cases don't figure in the death rate calculations the death rates appear artificially high.

There is another thread running (think it's on the 10th thread now) and whilst there is some useful info on it there are some posters who are whipping up hysteria and frenzy. People excitedly waiting for the 2pm bulletin and guessing how many new victims there might be. It may seem harmless but there are people on there who are clearly anxious and it's fuelling that anxiety. Sitting endlessly on Mumsnet rather than getting out into the real world isn't helping them. I'm in London and all is normal. I'm sure lots of people are worried - I am - but life has to go on.

The government has already said that it’s possible schools could end up closing for a couple of months. Some Italian towns are in lockdown.
European countries might not be quite as strict as China but we are/will see quarantine and school closures if there’s a major outbreak.