To not understand the coronavirus panic

[YeahWhatevver]

With all the media coverage and social media posts on coronavirus it's hard to really understand why it's so bad.

As I understand it, for most people (and I accept that for those with preexisting conditions it's more worrying) nothing will come of it beyond a respiratory infection.

What am I missing?

5% of people need intensive care. We don't have enough intensive care for 5% of the people who might catch it. If too many people catch it, the 5% who need intensive care might die when they would have otherwise lived, and the case fatality rate might rise quite a lot higher than 1%. That's why it's really, really important to spread out the impact on the NHS by doing our best to lower the transmission rates.

This.

I think this is what is so worrying. It is not the actual mortality rate. That will be a lot lot higher if the 5-10% of people who need critical care don’t get that care. And indeed that is why we need to eek out the spread of it so hospital beds don’t get overwhelmed. People keep talking about low mortality % but they completely miss the point. There is a 38 year old man in Italy who first spread the virus who was a fit and healthy football player and runner who is still in critical care. That is what freaks me out. That is why they are making priority plans for who they will put on the ventilators. The relatively young and healthy or the already vulnerable and/or old.

The death rate currently could be misleading either way. Also, currently the numbers are low so if you are one of those who needs intensive care/ventilator (5%) you’ll probably get it. If the numbers grow so that NHS resources are overwhelmed, the death rate is likely to rise . That and the fact that no one fully understands the virus yet - the incubation period etc - and the reinfection case is very scary indeed.

I wondered why China was building two new hospitals so quickly. It didn’t click. Now it has. We are going to need hospital beds - intensive care and ventilators. For a lot of people. Yes I am worried and hope more people start taking this seriously and understand the panic so we can help each other.

I'm worried about DS in GCSE year. He's not self-disciplined. He needs going into classes to revise the material to do well. I could see schools closed for weeks and exams happening anyway & DS bombing most the exams. It's his price to pay when yrs of trying to support him have failed to result in him becoming self-disciplined... but what a shame. Exam results wouldn't be remotely similar to what happens in other years for other kids. Arggh.

The mortality rate figures are misleading. Far more people will have been infected by it than those officially recognised. It is serious but nothing to loose sleep over.

The figure of 1% takes this into account as far as is possible right now. There is a theory it was in Italy for several weeks before it was detected, hence so many cases.

In one way it isn't worth worrying about, you have to get on with life. DH is asthmatic though, my DF isn't in the best of health.

If many many people become ill enough all at once not to be able to work and participate in ordinary life, can you not imagine how that will affect day to day life?

That is bus drivers, postmen, shop workers, school teachers, healthcare workers, lorry drivers, council workers, police, fire fighters etc etc you get my drift?

Not even thinking about those that could die from the disease here.

Sick to death of people saying " it's just media hype".

think one of the worrying things that only become apparent in the last few days is that if you get it and recover, it can come back again

Do you have a source for that. As I understand it (and do correct me if I'm wrong), Health departments have not yet established that it can recur.

@sleepingpup exactly! This is what I keep saying to people!

You can’t catch the train if there are no drivers. You’ll be queueing a long time at the supermarket if only one cashier is able to work.

to those making threads to laugh at those who care about others dying! You're the weird one!!

@Roussette It can re occur. The Chinese doctor caught it so many times, that's why he died as it's worse each time! That's what i read anyway but obvs everything with a pinch of salt in the news

(whispers) I don't think some of the tests are that accurate.
I suspect they are much more likely to give false positives than false negatives.
Best practice is to double test to confirm results.
But there may not be enough tests to double test
A lot of SARS1 cases were diagnosed on symptoms & contact history, they didn't have enough tests. That's the normal.
Even if someone 'tests positive' they may not be shedding enough virus to infect other people (probably true of that dog, too).

There's a Limit of Detection in the tests, which could turn out to be below the point when people are shedding enough virus in ordinary ways to tend to give it to others. In other words, some people may have detectable levels but can't (at that point) give it to anyone.

From what I can tell, the claims that folk will easily get COVID19 more than once or that many people are passing it on when they have zero symptoms are based on incomplete data, or even bad data. The picture is still too incomplete meanwhile, from everything else we know about virus infections & disease transmission, it's unlikely that either one of those will be often true.

I was listening to a public health doctor on the radio.

He said they have a huge amount of data and case studies from China but there is no information on smoking in this data.

Rates of smoking and air pollution are very high in China so there is much higher levels of respiratory issues anyway which can contribute to a higher mortality rate than in countries with lower smoking and clean air,

We don’t have clean air. Levels of air pollution on the Northern Line in London are something like 17 times the WHO maximum. A lot of people have asthma and I believe COPD is the fourth largest cause of death in the UK.

I’m very much at risk due to compromised immune system and kidney disease - I’m not laughing about people dying at all but I think people are going too far , take precautions yes that’s sensible during flu season anyway but a lot of what I’m reading is just hysteria. I haven’t lost any sleep worrying about it and wouldn’t change my routine or plans to travel as things stand

@Roussette

source here

The Chinese doctor caught it so many times, that's why he died as it's worse each time! That's what i read anyway but obvs everything with a pinch of salt in the news

It is equally possible he was murdered because they were trying to shut him up. No one has any idea at all what the truth is.

I think the risk of catching and dying from Coronavirus is something we all need to accept eventually, we can't cut off towns permanently and close down the whole country/ world. If we do then there will be no money from taxes to treat anyone for Coronavirus/ anything else and we'll all starve to death eventually. Older people need to assess their own risk - many I'm sure will still choose to go on cruises because if they can't enjoy their last years there's no point etc, others may decide to be a lot more careful.

We do need to take more seriously staying at home if we are ill at least until there is a vaccine, however. This in reality is the main reason things spread, people insisting on going into the office and sharing their bloody germs round. Perhaps it will lead to a culture change.

That doesn't say she caught it more than once it said there was more than one phase to her illness and that she tested negative once between two positive tests. Loads of people who have it seem to test negative, then positive it's one of the challenges.

I'm chronically ill, so more at risk. It's not so much the actual virus that I'm concerned about, it's disruption to supply lines and services if people get ill, or schools close and parents have to stay home from work to look after children, or we have areas that need to be quarantined as in other countries. I think being a bit prepared for those eventualities is important.

Also reading that people are not being tested at airports on return from infection hotspots, that lots of people who are exposed are asymptomatic and still testing positive and spreading the virus is concerning too.

We have a shitty attitude to ilness in this country. Unless were on deaths door your meant to be at work or school. It means virus spread like wildfire. It will spread because idiots will consider themselves to important to self isolate

There’s fuck all to panic about and I’m frankly tired of hearing about it. It’s just mass hysteria.

Well I am glad for those not worried. However my DH and DD have very compromised auto immune systems so I worry for them rather than me.

Even if you aren't worried, at least please follow basic hygiene advice to try and stop the spread to others. Many people do not wash their hands properly. They think they do, but don't. Plenty of information out there on this and the "Catch it, bin it kill it"

My mother is 79 and as fit as a fiddle, I'm not too worried about her but my dad is 80 and in poor health with cardic and lung problems, diabetes and asthma............ he would be unlikely to be able to fight it off. Both my in-laws also have heart and lung issues............... My 91-year-old uncle has heart problems, he lives with my cousin who has MS and asthma.........My elderly neighbour has MS and other health issues, she is unable to walk and is hoisted from bed to chair................

If all of these elderly and vulnerable relatives get the virus and need hospital care where are the hospital beds going to come from????

Another thing to consider is the psychological impact, we're not used to large numbers of people falling ill or dying, we're used to modern medicine being able to cure most things.

@sleepingpup
You don’t need people to become ill for it to affect daily life, lockdown/limiting movement will have the same effect. Eg schools in China are closed, but office workers are going back, but who will look after their children if there is no stay at home parent? Only a resident can enter your compound so no external help. Where I live some restaurants are starting to open (Limited hours), but prior to that no work, no salary..what about small businesses who could not open?

@eenyminymeenyboo
The psychological impact is not just about large numbers of people falling ill, but also the effects of self isolation and the uncertainty regarding the situation.
We had to leave China and have no idea when we will be able to go back. My dd is distraught she has lived there since she was 2, it’s her home and she wants to go back.