US return to war?

[mids2019]

I think think this ceasefire will not hold for a few reasons........

1. Trump is feeling absolutely humiliated looking at the press following his ceasefire announcement saying effectively Iran has won. The presentation of the Iranian 10 point plan as a done deal and effectively US surrender terms has compounded this.

2.Lebanon. Obviously confusion here with Lebanon not being in the ceasefire deal and this starts any prospective talks under huge strain already.

1. Israel does not want this war to end and will pressure Trump to continue. Any new missile strikes from Iran will result in retaliation from Israel looking for opportunity with poor Iranian air defence. This is has often been touted as a once in generations opportunity for Israel to deal decisive blows to it enemies.

1. There are still considerable US assets in the region including troops which may have future use.

1. The strait of Homuz does not look like it's fully open yet and the charge imposed by Iran for passage won't have long term agreement by western countries or allied gulf states. The world won't be held hostage.

1. Nuclear material. It now seems like it will be an imperative of Iran to develop a nuclear weapon quickly to prevent a repeat of this war where huge swathes of its military and regime infrastructure were destroyed. This can't happen.

1. 2 weeks is not long enough for a highly complex deal and the US military can't remain on standby forever.

1. It could be current ceasefire is to allow breathing space for the US to reassess military strategy and as a result of Trump' s statements which though bluster did cause international alarm. It may be that the US were starting to run out of military targets so regime infrastructure and economic targets need to be determined with a view to proportionality.

1. Regime change. This is not an impossibility but may take time. The spur to regime change will be an economic one so selectively impacting the economy may eventually make the regime realise it has no long term future and cause dissent.

Am I being negative?

No it was a can of worms that needn't have been opened.
Trump and his administration are a menace to the world.

Israel immediately broke the ceasefire. This is Israel's war that Trump, stupidly, allowed himself to get dragged into. Israel is not going to stop any time soon.

You missed out illegal in your thread title. People need to stop trying to legitimise it. It's an illegal war which the US and Israel are responsible for.

I think you are being a bit too negative @mids2019 - but then again I am a natural optimist so maybe I'm the one in the wrong!

I think we are seeing a lot of posturing at the moment from both sides as they both want to claim victory. It will be clearer after the war ends and a bit of time has passed who has gained what and who has lost what.

The positive part is ... we have a temporary ceasefire, which the IRGC previously said they would never agree to.

2 weeks isn't long enough but it's a start and can be extended. The talks begin on Saturday.

I think Netanyahu will be most pleased if the ceasefire that he didn't want doesn't hold.

I think it's coming down to the strait of course and nukes.

The USA ten point plans said it would help Iran move towards nuclear energy which I felt was quite magnanimous of them.

Yes.

That should be a reason for Iran not to end the truce then.

It's all a bit of a mess and the negotiations if they are to go ahead seem to be based on very different positions with leaking to try and give an impression of another hand.

It will be interesting to see if Iran throw Hezbollah under the bus which seems a possibility. Ultimately Israel have staked too much on this war for it to end now with a wounded angry Iran with some potential to develop nuclear weapons.....Israel can't just sit on its hands for 5-10 years until Iran has a working nuclear ballistic missile so even if the US pull out will want to continue this.

He's desperate for a way out. He'll grasp at any opportunity and call it victory, regardless of what it actually is. And he'll happily throw Netanyahu under the bus. There is no political capital in supporting Israel in the US these days - indeed support for Israel is seen as toxic across the political spectrum, the volte face among the American public has been spectacular with now 60% having a "very or somewhat" unfavourable view of Israel.

I think this war was the final nail in the coffin for those who were still on the fence regarding support for Israel.

This illegal war affects the whole world, so the world needs to make it clear that the war criminals Trump and Netanyahu have to stop - and yes that needs to include Lebanon. Much more pressure needs to be put on the US and Israel.

And just looking at it from an economic point of you even if it stopped today we in the UK will suffer from the effects for months to come.

Nah! I think there is still a healthy amount of support (even on these boards) for the terrorist and his Zionist expansion plans.

We are also surrounded by weak and greedy politicians who are afraid of Trump and will continue arming Isreal.

What is happening in Lebanon is utterly reprehensible, but the world's two biggest terrorists know they can 'obliterate' sovereign nations/kidnap world leaders/arm other countries' citizens with impunity.

Yes that’s what worries me 🙁 but we have to hope that the tide will turn 🤞