Trump sowing mistrust amongst the remains of the Iranian leadership....

[mids2019]

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603234812

Insightful article into Trumps thinking. He is trying to spread paranoia amongst the Iranian leadership by making them believe there is a traitor in their midst who wishes to sell them out.....as well as calming markets.

That really isn't the only realistic option.
The only sensible option was not to have started this war in the first place. As several people said at the start, it was obvious that this was going to be a disaster.
There is no guarantee of an Iranian capitulation, not even with many, many thousands of ground troops and many, many thousands more deaths. Vietnam anyone?
You understand that everyone suffers from the higher price of oil but also assume that it is just a temporary blip, not something with wider reaching consequences, causing a huge recession and having the potential to cause fuel shortages (already happening), food shortages, metal shortages, chip shortages. It will also cause major 'dysfuntion' in financial markets.This is something that could, in essence close down the world economy as we know it and cause mass starvation. That may sound dramatic but this is a posibility if a rapid solution is not found.
You also assume that, if the US were to remove the current regime, that outcome for the people of Iran would be better. You seem to have forgotten about history. Out of all the times the US has invaded other countries to cause regime change/steal their oil, etc, how many times have the natives been better off?

Here link to other of his videos.
Not the original one I watched, but similar info.
I think mumsnet is looking into my prior post.
But it has nothing extra on it, so no idea why.

Sorry about the delay @rainingsnoring, the discussion about the bases has been discussed as a possibility on Iranian TV and by prominent Iranians and geopolitical experts during interviews (I have heard it on Judge Napolitano and other shows). It's also evident in the fact the majority of Iran's initial attacks focused on degrading or destroying the American bases as opposed to attacking Israel which every expert had been predicting.

However it was during Mojtaba Khamenei's first speech as the new Ayatollah that it was mentioned as a serious condition, in part 5 he says:

““The fifth part of my speech addresses leaders in certain regional countries. We share borders with 15 countries and have always wanted, and still want warm relations with them. But for years, the enemy has been establishing military and financial bases in some of these countries to secure its dominance over the region.

“In the recent assault, some of these military bases were utilised; naturally, as we had clearly warned in advance, and without committing any act of aggression against those regional countries themselves, we have only targeted the US bases there. After this, we will have no choice but to continue this course of action. Though, we remain committed to the necessity of friendship with our neighbors.

“These regional countries must determine their position with regard to the aggressors who’ve attacked our beloved homeland and murdered our people.

“I advise the leaders of regional countries to shut down those [US] bases as soon as possible, for they must surely have realised by now that the US’s claims of ensuring security and peace have been nothing but lies.

“Shutting down US bases in the region will enable those governments to strengthen their ties with their own people, who are generally dissatisfied with the humiliating behavior associated with those bases. It will also bring an increase in their wealth and power.

“I repeat: Islamic Republic, without being in pursuit of domination or colonisation in the region, is fully prepared for unity, and fostering warm, sincere, reciprocal relations with all its neighbours."

(It was extremely difficult to find a full copy of the speech, most papers including Al Jazeera just had extracts, finally found it on a Pakistani news site)

Automatically filtered/hidden because it mentioned the word rhyming with griptoe.

Zineb Riboua on twitter is pretty bloody good if anyones interested in the china angle. She’s been on point for the last year as far as I can see. Out of the analysts I follow she’s the one I find most insightful.

How? I did not write that. And it would be a weird auto correct of some sort.

I just wrote that according to some experts in finances, Trump has a plan to reduce the value of the dollar and by so allow manufacturing back to the US. And that he may use crypto currency to keep US assets while purposely depreciating the dollar.
I am also missing a post that I was replying to. Or I got confused on which thread I am!
Sorry if this does not follow with this conversation!

It's weird I once wrote a post that mentioned the finance bros who deal in the speculation you mentioned above and was automatically hidden. AI hey? 😁

On weakening the USD to make manufacturing cheaper it does sound like a Trumpian gamble.

The USA is 39 trillion dollars in debt right now and their bond markets did not fall for Trump’s "truth" yesterday.

However looking at some of the experts he has around him, I wouldn't bet on this working,

https://reason.com/2026/03/17/peter-navarro-promised-700-billion-in-tariff-revenue-the-actual-amount-was-about-240-billion/

Riboua points to basically damaging China and enabling the USA to refocus on the east, from a security and economic perspective. The stabilisation of the middle east is part of the plan. I understand some people here will only see chaos but militia are being squeezed (Hezbollah is basically only slightly popular with shia at this point in Leb) , hamas is being chucked out of Qatar, the peace plan in Gaza specifically sets out the disarmament of Hamas (at the beginning of this whole thing hamas expressed support for Iran and then remembered who’s going to pay the bills when a lot of khaleejis got pretty angry and they aren’t going to forget that). Syria has strengthened it’s border forces to prevent hezbollah movement and probably because they’ve been having another crack at the Druze.

The idea that the gulf states would lessen co-operation with the USA after this is faulty I think. Many are pretty angry at what they see as a lack of arab unity when they are usually massive donors to other countries. I think they will assert that their national interest is their number one concern and that it is aligned with washington.

I agree @Bringemout there seems a lot of anger against Iran in the ME:

Lebanon expelling their Iranian ambassador
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry declaring the Iranian embassy’s military and security attaches as persona non grata, along with their staff.
UAE closing its embassy in Tehran

Saudi Crown Prince, UAE President Say Iranian Attacks on GCC States Threaten Regional Security

english.aawsat.com/gulf/5251748-saudi-crown-prince-uae-president-say-iranian-attacks-gcc-states-threaten-regional

Interesting analysis from Riboua, the famous "pivot to China" that occupies the other half of neocon Washington.

She dows seem to fundamentally misunderstand the Shia philosophy and essence of their beliefs (as do many experts in Western based think tanks).

Nasrallah was offered money and power to abandon Palestine and normalise with Israel (or the occupying entity as many Lebanese refer to Israel as) he refused:
https://www.newarab.com/news/nasrallah-reveals-hezbollah-rejected-us-money-and-power-deal

Even the idea that the Shia in Lebanon are tired of Hezbollah is laughable, even some Christians in Lebanon are fighting with Hezbollah as they consider Israel the real enemy:
https://tapnewswire.com/2026/03/23/christians-and-hezbollah-unite-against-epstein-empire/

(Using that link as the Telegraph deleted the article).

Is there a chance of sectarian strife in Lebanon, yes due to external destabilising forces and unsettled scores from the civil war.

Regarding China, Xi is laughing, he has watched Iran destroy billions in Air Defence systems in the middle east.

On the other front Russia has depleted American and NATO weapons. XI also controls the precious metals and minerals needed to build new weapons and air defences, you think he's going to supply that to America to attack China?

After America moving those air defence systems from South Korea last week, Xi could do the funniest thing right now.

Yeah there really is, that is not to say they are supportive of Israel and America but they are very clear that attacks on them were completely unjustified and unreasonable. They have continued to act defensively not offensively, giving Iran the opportunity to just quit it but it’s not happening so I’m not surprised if they take a much more aggressive posture.

I do think that what happens in Gaza will also be affected by this. Firstly the lack of support from neighbouring countries, secondly there are some having very honest conversations about the fact that Israel has never bombed them but Iran has (still doesn’t mean they aren’t deeply anti-israel and it’s not everyone, a lot of people in the arab world are deeply fixated on Israel). Thirdly the view at the top on militias running around destabilising the middle east will harden. Twitter is also doing it’s divisive work, Palestinians who accuse the gulf of letting them down some how or stabbing them in the back by being aligned with america are being slapped down as people assert their right to prioritise their own national interests. I think the position that Hamas need to go will take root.

I think this is why the UAE has been an outlier, it’s the first to break away from the pack and plainly say their national interest won’t be held hostage by a conflict in another country. I imagine more gulf countries will move towards this position. Even qatar is taking a harder line with al-jazeera staff (too much of a hard line, some have disappeared and this is not ok, they should be deported if they have pissed you off, not disappeared and I think al-jazeera is basically full of shit).

I do hope they take a more robust role in mediating between israel and lebanon. Syria cutting off supply lines, hezbollah’s unpopularity and disappearing Iranian support means one day the lebanese may be free from having a militia run their country. Once that happens Israel can withdraw and it’s better if that pressure is applied by “friends”.

I’m not sure how popular hamas is in Gaza at the moment, not very from the number of people who have had both arms and legs shot I imagine.

She’s Morrocan (as in born and raised) she speaks arabic, she has an excellent grasp of the middle east.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/699071/lebanese-say-army-weapons.aspx

Thats a poll suggesting that the majority of Lebanese want to live in a normal state. Of course they are anti-israel, that does not mean they are pro-hezbollah.

The funniest thing would be to attack South Korea….?

I’m not sure that the americans are disadvantaged here, repositioning assets is not the same as not having them.

I don’t think it’s sectarian, some are chucking people suspected of being hezbollah out but I know someone who's father is the mayor of a Christian town and they are welcoming displaced people, there is just a ban on Hezbollah. The one thing Lebanese do not want is another civil war, I have a friend who grew up in Beirut and suffers from PTSD, it’s ugly. People are doing their best but don’t want hezbollah to put a target on their back, there is anger because the government tried to move them into Christian areas of Beirut. A bus full of people was attacked when it entered Syria because locals mistook them for lebanese (you will know hezbollah helped assad barrel bomb his people). Hezbollah are going to find it hard to hide in syria and not many want to give them shelter in Lebanon either. Thats is not the same thing as liking or endorsing the Israelis.

I find a lot of people in the west don’t get the complexities, Lebanon has been occupied by both Israel and Syria, it has been the battleground between iranian proxies/PLO and Israel and these are people who just want to get on with their lives and have a currency that has some value, have some opportunity to build a life. It doesn’t mean they aren’t horrified at an occupation, it doesn’t mean they are friends with Israel it means that they too want to assert their own national interest rather than that of Iran or Palestine. That also doesn’t mean they don’t care about Palestinians.

No one can blame them for being fed up with Iran @Bringemout

They have been very restrained so far under extreme provocation in some cases. But have clearly had enough & Iran are pushing their luck by repeatedly targeting their neighbours in the ME who they are not at war with.

I believe Iran’s aggression in this war towards their neighbours will strengthen not weaken the co-operation of countries like the UAE with the US.

I think the fundamental problem a lot of people in the west have is they don’t understand is that a) there are other options aside from pro axis of resistance and pro israel b) not everyone in the middle east is dreaming of dying for whatever “omnicause” is going on. Romanticising conflict is something only psychopaths and comfortable people do.

The fundamental shift aside from the destruction of the axis of resistance so less terror for everyone living in the middle east will be the reassertion of national interest being the guiding principle of gulf countries and the levant. Jordan and egypt trade with Israel and do not have conflict with israel. No gulf country has ever been attacked by Israel and they have never directly attacked Israel. People are starting to notice that. This is not the same as the abraham accords or normalisation but it can be at bare minimum peace deals.

Absolutely and I think it’s probably solidified in many peoples minds exactly why the regime cannot stay. If they has just attacked american bases, both the americans and the arabs would have shrugged and said “well, we expected that”. The attacks on civilian infrastructure is where they crossed the line. No-one will want them to stay in place after this. They bombed Oman ffs who have been nothing but helpful.

No, invading Taiwan.

America is currently tied up on 2 fronts in Ukraine and the Middle East. It was a crass joke based on Xi acting preemptively if he was power hungry.

On Hezbollah in Syria, knowing Christian Syrians (one of the oldest villages where they speak Aramaic the language) whose villages were liberated by Hezbollah from the head chopping wahabi ISIS, recollections may vary.

Even Joe Kent (former deputy DNI) spoke about fighting alongside Iran aligned militias during the first Trump term to destroy ISIS, many people have forgotten this.

Lebanon is 2 different countries, the Southern Lebanese have suffered so much, the Sabra and Shatila massacre (carried out by the Lebanese Army), their villages being destroyed. That's why in the GALLUP poll they did not want the weapons to be given up.

But time will tell.

Yeah I don’t think they would dare, America has basically shown that it will react and react harshly. I wish they had exercised this level of aggression to protect Ukraine but we are where we are with that.

Yes I imagine there are people who saw Hezbollah as protection against Isis, and now there are Druze who see Israel as protection against their own government (mostly those headchoppers you referenced). But I imagine that wouldn’t make you think Israel are the good guys? But many more remember the IRCG and Hezbollah action in Syria which killed 500k people. So yes as I said it is not simple, multiple options in a complex part of the world. What is obvious though is hezbollah does not act in Lebanons interests, there was zero benefit or desire on the part of the majority of Lebanese people to be drawn into a conflict with Israel (again). Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire it had not intention of respecting.

Joe Kent is a conspiracy theorist who think that Israel is responsible for what happened to his wife in Syria. I’m sad for him but he’s wrong. Israel had very little to do with Syria, it was an authoritarian supported by Iran, it’s proxies and Russia, america mainly bombed isis which suited the existing regime.

The south has been occupied by people who prioritise Iranian interests over their own peoples (other Lebanese not other Shia). Partly because Iran has pumped money into them for for years. They have literally spent billions on the South, it’s not just religion it’s funding. Would any british person be content if there was an armed faction in the UK who was better armed than the British army but was loyal to France? Would we accept that or would we feel that it meant that our votes didn’t matter, we had no control over own security etc etc.

Why do you think Riboua doesn’t understand the Shia? Genuinely curious.

My position will always be peace in the long run, sometimes it takes some conflict in the short term to get there.

IRCG and Hezbollah action in Syria which killed 500k people

Have you got a source for this? As it has never been proven and was a number amplified by the Syrian Observatory a London based think tank. How many of that 500'000 were ISIS/Al Qaeda?

On Shia, Riboua just doesn't, I read some of her analysis about the IRGC apparently acting that way due to Fitna and other Islamic traditions and I chuckled, so off the mark. Ali Larajani translated Kant from German to Farsi and discussed philosophy with Kissinger.

Not to denigrate her, a lot of people don't understand the significance of Ashura snd Imam Husayn. I didn't until a Shia friend who has lost their home and family since 2023, didn't complain once, always tried to help and listen to Palestinians. That silent steadfastness, fight against injustice and faith is something the books don't teach you.

Anyway, hope that you have a nice evening, it's actually been a nice conversation.

America has basically shown how readily it will elect, then bend to the will of a proven liar and corrupt, sex offender who repeatedly fails in everything he does!😒🤨

How many more years of this fuckwittery do we have to endure?🤦‍♀️

How much more does Trump have to do to get Putin and Netenyahu off his back? When will the famous Checks and Balances kick in for the benefit of the American people?

Where on earth did you get the 500K figure from, because that sounds like the total figure for civilians and combatants, including Islamic State. From the following link, 199K civilians killed, 157K by the Syrian government, 8.8K by Russia, 4.9K by ISIL.
Combatant deaths around 400K in total on both sides.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Syrian_civil_war

I don't know your source, Riboua and don't have time to look her up at present.
You seem to be suggesting that this war is justifed because you assume that it will lead to peace in the long run. This point has been repeatedly on these threads but perhaps I should state it again. There is very, very little evidence from the history of US led wars that they lead to 'peace in the long run'. What usually happens if tens of thousands of destruction, billions of $ worth of destruction, billions of $ spent on weapons, enriching the powerful military industrial cos. in the US and then failure or chaos. It's also worth pointing out that the US installed leader in Syria is an ISIS terrorist. He has been welcomed in the WH. The US seem to be extremely hypocritical when it comes to doing business terrorists. They have done plenty of business with them when they think it suits their agenda.

I think your 500k figures are inaccurate as two other posters have already said.

Lastly, Joe Kent is certainly not a conspiracy theorist. If you actually listen to him speaking, he is extremely rational, calm and balanced, the opposite of a wild consipracy theorist. He was a gov insider until very recently and is therefore in an excellent position to understand what is going on at a high level.