Monitors Acknowledge Relying on Malnutrition Data Absent From Initial Report
A crucial finding of the IPC’s August 22 report was that malnutrition among children had grown “exponentially” in July, exceeding 15 percent — the famine threshold — in the latter half of the month. Yet closer inspection of the raw data in the IPC report showed that malnutrition actually fell slightly in the latter half of the month and did not exceed 15 percent in either half. Subsequently, the IPC acknowledged this problem. In an August 30 follow-up note, the IPC explained it had actually relied on additional data that never appeared in the August 22 report at all.
The IPC released that data as part of an addendum to its initial report, yet the Israeli paper flags multiple inconsistencies in the new data. For example, it includes a survey whose quality the UN nutrition group in Gaza had previously determined to be deficient. The addendum also reassigns data from the latter half of July to the first half, an adjustment necessary to create the impression that malnutrition rose in the latter half of the month. The addendum does not inform the reader of these changes; they are only apparent to those who examine the data line-by-line.
Israel Disputes IPC Forecast of Famine Spreading to Nearly Entire Gaza Strip
The IPC’s report formally declared a famine in only one of Gaza’s four governorates but forecast it would reach three out of four by the end of September and possibly the fourth. In part, the Israeli response challenges that prediction by emphasizing the sharp increase in humanitarian aid that began arriving in Gaza while the IPC was preparing its analysis. The COGAT dashboard shows that 123,000 tons of food arrived in August, nearly doubling the amount the IPC considers necessary per month. The figure for mid-September stands at 49,000 tons.
The IPC also flagged “high prices, liquidity shortages, and a lack of purchasing power” as reasons that Gaza residents lack sufficient food. The Israeli response shows that prices for key goods, including flour, sugar, rice, cooking oil, and salt had all begun falling prior to the publication of the IPC report. Data from the UN’s World Food Program shows similar drops with the price of flour in Gaza’s northern governorates. In fact, flour fell 86 percent in August, sugar 98 percent, rice 92 percent, cooking oil 75 percent, and salt 20 percent.
Time To Revisit Flawed Analysis
The U.S. government should assign its own food security experts to vet the Israeli response paper and gauge its accuracy. If the American assessment concurs with the Israeli findings, the White House should publicize the result widely. While journalists have all but ignored the Israeli paper, they should carefully examine its findings and report them to readers. Finally, the IPC should prepare to issue a public evaluation of its forecast that famine would reach nearly all of Gaza by the end of September, ensuring it does not repeat past methodological errors.
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/09/19/scientific-malpractice-israel-publishes-58-page-report-dissecting-claims-of-famine-in-gaza/