This war could have been stopped after 6 months

[Stripes56]

Interesting piece in New York Times. They are questioning, after speaking to numerous people, to what extent the continuation of war has been about Netanyahu’s political survival.

Quite a few interesting points- including the role two far right politicians have had in shaping policy.

Firstly- the war could have stopped in April 2024, when plans for a ceasefire were shelved to keep the coalition together. There is a narrative about Hamas not accepting ceasefires, but it doesn’t seem that Netanyahu and some in his coalition were interested in a ceasefire:

“He pressed ahead with the war in April and July 2024, even as top generals told him that there was no further military advantage to continuing. When momentum toward a cease-fire seemed to grow, Netanyahu ascribed sudden significance to military objectives that he previously seemed less interested in pursuing, such as the capture of the southern city Rafah and later the occupation of the Gaza-Egypt border. And when an extended cease-fire was finally forged in January, he broke the truce in March in part to keep his coalition intact.”

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/magazine/benjamin-netanyahu-gaza-war.html

The rules of engagement were substantially altered:

”The enemy will pay an unprecedented price.” Shortly afterward, the generals significantly loosened their rules of engagement, expanding the set of military targets that their subordinates could hit in pre-emptive airstrikes, while exponentially increasing — sometimes by a factor of 20 — the number of civilians that officers could endanger in each attack. When Halevi later told him that the air force had hit one thousand targets in Gaza, Netanyahu pushed him to strike even faster. “One thousand?” Netanyahu said dismissively. “I want 5,000.”

There was a real concern prior to 7/10 that the internal dissent due to judicial reforms being pushed through was putting Israel at risk.

Various people were trying to impress onto Netanyahu the risks present including head of their intelligence agency, Bar:

“Bar told him that the country was at a “point of crisis” and faced imminent peril. The details were not clear, Bar said, but the danger was real. “I am giving you a strategic alert for war,” he said. “I don’t know when, and I don’t know where, but I’m giving you a strategic warning for war.”

The war could be stopped today if the Gazan government surrenders and releases the hostages. Why don't they?

A couple of thoughts come to mind: what were the terms of the rejected ceasefire? AFAIK the objective from the start has been to defeat Hamas and leave them unable to maintain control in Gaza and be a threat going forward. Secondly WRT Rafah etc and changing priorities, without knowing what the intelligence was - and I imagine there's a very small number of people with that access - we can't really make a judgement as to what forms the basis of every decision.

There was a similar article in the Guardian which was summed up by saying whenever Netanyahu had a choice, he always chose himself. He would rather cling to power than take his chances with the corruption charges etc.

@Frummie - I must admit I am not sure that it would. I think the destruction of Hamas would be pursued with or without hostages. The attack proved they were a massive risk to have sitting on your border, I think anyone would want to eliminate the possibility of that happening again.

Surrendering is the destruction of Hamas. At least one of the ways Hamas could be eliminated.

That’s true, and the authors of the article will not have full details.

The overall impression is that Hamas took advantage of internal turmoil generated by the judicial reforms, despite repeated warnings from
intelligence agencies that Israel was in danger.

Once 7/10, people were left reeling at the Hamas had been able inflict and there did appear to a need for vengeance - not wanting images of aid going into Gaza being on TV is telling of what the feelings in Israel must have been like at the time.

However you do have to question the necessity of various conditions stipulated by Netanyahu for the ceasefire- as his military leaders were not requesting them from what we know, and haven’t they had to row back from them now?

The article does seem quite explicit that in April 2024 the ceasefire proposal was shelved due to risk to coalition.

Ye-es but what would a surrender that made Israel feel safe again look like? A long line of hundreds of Hamas operatives voluntarily walking into Sde Teiman? I'm not sure that is realistic. I can't imagine Israel will accept a written apology and a promise not to do it again!

Proper trials for the perpetrators and safety for the innocent civilians.

Maybe so. I do question it, but I wouldn't claim to have any real idea of all the factors involved. The whole situation is appalling, but I can also see why Israel is determined to remove Hamas and make it clear that an attack like October 7th can never happen again.

I can completely see that too.

It’s interesting that their own military leaders said that there was no military advantage in continuing the conflict in April 2024. Was that pragmatism or lack of ambition?

Will Israel really safer at the end of this? I think it will for the time being due to the destruction it wrought on Gaza - rather than through destroying Hamas per se.

Israel should use this time to try and work towards a 2ss that will hoped bring it longer term hope for peaceful existence in the region. I think there will be desire to see this happen from Palestinians, given what is happening to them both in the WB and Gaza.

We’re not seeing any breach in the ‘river to the sea’ narrative, though, are we?

Hamas can end the fighting by releasing the hostages.

Israel can end the fighting by agreeing that Hamas can keep the children they stole.

Who would agree to that if it were their own?

Anyone who doubts they would stop need only consider the reaction of the rest of the world. None of the supporting countries wants this to continue so would leap at the chance to end it.

Netanyahu already confirmed that releasing the hostages won’t stop the war. The previous ceasefire deal would have released all the hostages,

It could have, but Israel sensed an opportunity.

Netanyahu has always been seen as a political survivor. It was a bit Machiavellian leaking half a report to the German newspaper that portrayed Hamas appallingly to influence Israeli support for continuing the conflict, but did not include the half that said Hamas would consider a ceasefire. It must be torture for hostages’ families seeing missed opportunities for ceasefires.

It will be interesting to see if he wins the next election.