Iran - Trump's 'I may do it, I may not'

[Westfacing]

Do you think Trump has a plan - he seems to blow with the wind and experts on the media seem not to know what he's up to?

I think he was intending to sit on the sidelines and let both sides get on with it, and then saw how well it seemed to be going for Israel and now wants a bit of the action/glory.

The fall of the regime would please the majority of the Iranian public but I doubt if the majority want the government to 'surrender'.

I have a feeling that the Ayatollah might just call Trump's bluff and sit tight - they have survived 46 years.

Still waiting for Trump's consequences to Putin after giving him 14 days warning. That ran out on the 11th of June.

There is an outlier maybe more than that where Trump goes for peace negotiations, but Netanyahu proceeds unilaterally with continuation, and Trump just shrugs and walks away. An Iranian woman in tears on LBC now saying if the US attacks then Iran is done she fears in the depths of her soul the potential chaos that is coming down at a rate of knots.
The refugee crisis wil be off the scale.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-858269

Defense Minister Israel Katz on Thursday directly threatened to assassinate Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in response to Iranian ballistic missiles striking Beersheba's Soroka Medical Center.

Katz said, "Khamenei will pay for his crimes."

The defense minister added that Israel will now start attacking new kinds of strategic targets in Iran "in order to remove the threats hanging over the State of Israel and to shake the ayatollah's regime."

It was not clear whether this meant the government has now given the order to actually Khamenei, with US President Donald Trump so far wanting to hold off on such a measure to still try to reach some kind of a deal with the regime. Or, whether Katz was simply raising the level of rhetoric to the threshold of being ready to assassinate Khamenei and giving him a last chance to cut a deal with Trump, while still leaving some amount of time for that kind of diplomacy.

He was "very angry" - but he's now obsessing about his new flagpoles that he has paid for.

Meh, Ukraine is so last week.

Trump has realised that he can't stop the Ukraine war and has lost interest. Luckily for him the middle east has drawn the world's focus and I think he is just waiting for an opportunity where he can be seen to take some personal glory.

Who can bar Russia giving up which is unlikely

At least the ‘coalition of the willing’ nonsense has gone quiet.

I do feel for Ukrainians though, there’s not much of a deal to be signed with Russia but those poor people are still dying in the fight. I include everyone there Russian and NK too who have no choice.

There'll be no glory for the USA in Israel's war with Iran.

Although on the plus side Iran's supply of shahed drones for Russia to use in Ukraine might falter a little.

Russia actually builds the Shahed drones under licence in Russia, including making improvements that are then shared with Iran.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/drone-saturation-russias-shahed-campaign#:~:text=Russia's%20drone%20campaign%20utilizes%20inexpensive,electronics%20and%20essential%20Chinese%20components.

He may do. He may not. When he's finished weighing up what's in it for him, he'll decide. Maybe.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/147170-uk-sanctions-iranair-over-alleged-missile-transfers

Available information varies. It was recently noted that the new head of MI6 is an expert on the middle east so I'm sure there are people who know more.

No, whatever the anti Trump rhetoric, he doesn't want to drag the US into this. Trump hopes that his threat to get involved will be enough to bring Iran to heel. Trump is no fan of Netanyahu.

Iran also knows it will be reduced to rubble aka Iraq, if the US does carry out its threats. It's currently checkmate

@Pollqueen yes I hope so too. Whatever Trumps failings as a leader, and there are many, he doesn’t seem to have an interest in war. He’s more about transactional exchange. He’s a bully but not one that kills his victims.

I thought that maybe his bombastic approach might scare Iran actually but then that regime are all a bit mad as well.

It’s still an anything could happen moment.

The US needs two weeks anyway to get its military assets in place as well as to figure out a bombing strategy for Fordow.

Personally I think that if Iran doesn't come up with a resolution that is acceptable to Trump within two weeks then the US will get involved

However this will only be an air campaign with no boots on the ground.

As to whether the current regime stays in power or topples from internal pressure then that's a matter for the Iranian people. But what is important for the US, UK and quite frankly the rest of the world is that Iran doesn't get a nuclear bomb.

Trump is no fan of Netanyahu.??? 😂😂😂

Turns out the US did not need 2 weeks for those things.

That comment didn’t age well, did it.

Trump saying today that he & Netanyahu “worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before.”

@Twiglets1

"Turns out the US did not need 2 weeks for those things."

True - now what intrigues me is what information the US had that made them want to go earlier.

They may have had intelligence, or i think it's likely the two weeks time frame was given to the media to dupe the Iranians. It sort of worked as the attack caught them by surprise.

Have you all not got used to Trump yet? He Lies. He lies all the time whether he has to or not. He will say whatever he feels expedient at the time or ignore the question. Nobody sensible would have given '2 weeks' any serious attention.

True.

The attack did seem to take them by surprise. It’s likely that they were expecting it soon but not that soon.

America, Trump, intelligence in the same sentence.. come on people wake up.
If Iran falls .. who's getting the fat juicy contract's.

What do you mean, If Iran falls ....?

Surely they won't "fall" though there may end up being a regime change. To a more moderate leader.

And if there is a regime change don't you think America wouldn't have influence?

As George Dubbya said prior to regime changing Iraq to save the world "It's not our fault that God put our oil under another country". A rare moment of honesty. Bigly is waving his "bigger than yours, so there" nukes around. No one can - or nobody is willing - to reclaim the medication from Elon and give Bigly a shot to calm him down. No one can touch him. It's utterly insane.

You haven't answered - What do you mean, If Iran falls ....?