Labour seeing a trap with the Israel Gaza conflict especially with Reform's popularity?

[mids2019]

I as just thinking Starmer is really facing a headache with this conflict.

having wrested the party from anti semites with a large scale full of extreme left wingers he is facing calls from some to be tougher with Israel. I think the conservatives and reform are just waiting to see Labour's On going response to the crisis to see if they are going to respond in such a way as to seem to be rewarding terrorism and the perpetrators of October 7th (Kemi has already inferred such).

All the main parties let's face it will lose seats with high proportion of Muslims by the next election with these few seats going to the independents so politically there is no win for Starmer in terms of polling and indeed risks of losing votes of there is any indication of actions that may thought anti semtic .

it's interesting that Labour have expelled no Israeli diplomats and if you look at the reasons for diplomatic expulsion of all the pro Palestinian lobby are correct why is this? The simple answer is that we have good relations generally and historically with Israel at a fundamental level and Keir needs to tread the tightrope of not doing anything looks anti semtic or taking a side in this conflict.

I also see none of our MPs have decided this a matter of such conscience that would resign their positions which is interesting but reflects the fact that there is a lot more going on in their political lives.

Starmer will upset people whatever he does or says in regard to the war in Gaza. Some will always accuse him of not doing enough and others of doing too much.

Had Israel not agreed to the latest US ceasefire proposal, I think the UK government would have felt obliged to take more concrete actions against them but Israel has shown willing to accept that proposal. They have also taken action to bring humanitarian aid back into Gaza, albeit not in the form that Starmer & other world leaders like Macron wanted (via the UN).

Overall, I think Starmer is walking a fine line but getting it about right at the moment. This is not an issue he wants to lose too much popularity over. The UK electorate have many issues that most probably care more about than wars in far away places such as the cost of living crisis, the state of the NHS, the economy, controlling immigration, etc.

He needs to get off his arse and do what’s right, or why bother being in power? They’d be more popular if they had clear values and exercised them. And fuck off to any Reform member with an opinion.

Why did the Tories bother being in power for 14 years seeing as they rarely if ever seemed to do what was right?

He's doing a better job than them so far. So I would quite like him to remain as leader a bit longer and not get mired in controversy so that he has to resign before he gets pushed.

The Labour party freeze in fear at the words "anti semitic". So now Keir is frozen with fear at dealing with Israel. I think the electorate would appreciate him growing some balls. I wanted a new Government, I actually voted Lib Dem as tactical voting was necessary in our area anyway, but I'm disappointed in Keir Starmer.

I would appreciate him being good enough at his job that Labour stay in power because at this point it's looking like Labour or Reform at the next election.

@Twiglets1he’s definitely doing a better job than that shower, but he could hardly do a worse one. I think he needs to be less fence sitting and more on the sides of right. That would include not sending bombs to Israel. I’ll still vote for him but plenty won’t, over this.

When it comes to voting you have to be pragmatic sometimes and vote for the "least bad" option even if you really disagree with some of their policies.

The bombing in Israel is not Kier Starmer's fault and I agree with @mids2019 that it would be a trap for him to get too involved.

He gets enough stick as it is for every decision he makes that affects the UK.

“When it comes to voting you have to be pragmatic sometimes and vote for the "least bad" option even if you really disagree with some of their policies.”

Hmm. There was me saying that I already did, too.

I disagree with your strategy. The more times Labour has tried to appeal to everyone, the more times they have failed. They’d have lost elections through this, more than once. Have strategies, yes, but have core morals and values. THAT will make you stand out.

No we need to stop trying to convince ourselves of that, it will become a self fulfilling prophecy. We can and should demand better of our Government.

There are no votes in Gaza and after a destructive phase of anti semitism the Labour party are going to be very very careful with this. Personally I think they said what they had to because the next 6months to a year are going to be difficult for Gaza. As I said those wards or constituencies that are full of pro Palestinian voters may now be lost to the main parties so hunting for those relatively few votes would be politically wasteful at the least.

There is in my opinion little chance of sanctions on Israel with most European governments hoping to avoid this vexatious subject in reality. At the core of things Israel is an ally in the region and for politically there don't a chance they will be abandoned by limiting arm sales of destroying their economy (which I agree with Israel does not deserve that).

I do think that there may be quite an intense period perhaps when as it appears increasingly likely there is the displacement for Gaza of peoples to other nations. My theory is that in reality the costa of rebuilding Gaza (homes,hospitals,infrastructure) could easily exceed 100 billion and no one is going to stump up that cash with a prospect of repeat war and there is no way Gaza can repay debt. It will take 20 years to clear up and rebuild anyway. You are therefore left with Gazans living in tents with no prospect of what we would see as a reasonable life thanks to Hamas. There will eventually be a funded humanitarian effort through the richer gulf states and the US to identify parts of the middle East (possibly over a number of countries where townships could be built for the refugees). Trump has already agreed big money trade deals with Arab states so maybe that will grease the wheels of the eventual displacement. I think the displacement will be voluntary because at the end of the day as humans we need hope for ourselves and our families and that may now I guess have disappeared in Gaza. Israel may even help out as their security would be guarenteed.

I may be wrong but if this is the outcome there will have to be careful stage management from the West (and yes they will be a bit missed at Israel and there may be some choice rhetoric) and some distancing from the whole sorry saga. 10 years on though I guess the world will be on another place and perhaps there is a certain inevitability about this.

Lovely bit of tolerance in action from those who bleat about the 'intolerant' Reform.

Overall, I think Starmer is walking a fine line but getting it about right at the moment

Agree with this

Good move banning the group that broke into an RAF base. At least the government is showing some teeth.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14833643/Israels-ambassador-UK-Labour-backing-Iran.html

If the US do enter the conflict I think the government should admit mistakes and while heartedly support our ally Israel against let's face it a geo political enemy, Iran. Iran is no friend of the UK.

the Gaza conflict has revealed the Labour government has been too worried about the Muslim vote (which it has lost any way) than understanding our strategic place in the world and remembering the alliances that have helped forge our great country.

obviously the Iranian regime might try a pity card in the next few weeks and try and declare itself the new Gaza with the hope that some naive students will pitch a tent on their campus with an Iranian flag next to a sign saying stop the genocide but this simply won't wash. Iran chose its fate by supporting a massive program to highly enrich plutonium with the avowed desire to create a nuclear bomb to aim at Tel Aviv. This has to be stopped.

Effectively European leaders trying negotiation currently can only hope Iran offers an unconditional surrender (no enrichment, defunding proxies etc.) as nothing else will satisfy Israel and the US. It would be good if this happens but it may be the Iranians stall for more time and this shouldn't be a reason to let Iran off the hook. There is a good opportunity to critically weaken the Iranian regime here with concerted international effort (though thought does need given to post regime governance) and the Iranian people would ultimately benefit (with 80% wanting democracy).

Agree.

Love how they say they are representing "every individual" who is opposed to Israel's military action in Gaza, adding: "If they want to ban us, they ban us all".

Pretty sure not sure every individual who opposes Israel's military action in Gaza asked or wanted to be represented by a group like them. Especially as the aircraft targeted by the group "do not do what these protesters think they do. They're largely used for moving passengers or fuel".

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn81g4e0nlyo

@marmaladeandpeanutbutter
Please don’t totally despair and presume that Reform voters are not concerned about what is happening in Gaza. A very recent poll shows that the majority of them think Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

Starmer had been proposing to recognise Palestinian state together with France and Canada. They have sanctioned 2 Knesset members and would uphold ICC warrants against Netanyahu.

I believe the main difficulty now for Starmer is what Israel is doing in Iran. Many politicians are extremely concerned about an escalation and need to not overly ostracise Netanyahu’s government. They need to keep up communication to see if they can support with de-escalation of the situation. Although if Trump can’t control him - no-one can.

58% of Reform voters and 82% of all in UK Yougov poll believe Israel committing Genocide in Gaza:

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ActionForHumanityResults250605W.pdf

I think the time for tolerance for reform is over. They are a bunch of incompetent bigots and I'm sick to death of hearing howw they will bring change. They may well do but not in a good way - why people are suckered into thinking a rich elite gives one fuck about the working man and will reform Britain is deluded and deserves calling out.

Just for a couple of examples, Farage and his ilk have been overtly racist, started making noise about abortion, privatising the NHS etc...

@mids2019
European diplomats will side with Israel in its conflict against Iran but they are unequivocal that the way ahead lies with negotiations and Iran has said it will do this if Israel stops bombing it. Doesn’t seem unreasonable request but Trump has said he can’t make Israel stop!

“The message from Europe’s top diplomats was that only a negotiated agreement - not more military action - could provide a lasting solution to Iran’s nuclear programme, and to regional stability.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c994v4gm9jmt

I also think that Stramer will not want to join Israel’s war against Iran- he is a lawyer and his own Attorney General is concerned about the legality of UK joining in conflict unless our own soldiers are targeted. I don’t think Iran will do this given they don’t want the situation to escalate.

“Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source said that the attorney general's concerns limit UK involvement in the conflict "unless our personnel are targeted".

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-attorney-general-has-concerns-over-iran-israel-war-13385688

You mean Farage suggesting 24 weeks is too late a term a term for abortions? That's common sense, inasmuch as most of Reform's policies. Whether those policies are workable is another matter, as with any other party. Your attitude is why they are gaining traction. BTW, the NHS does need a radical overhaul with the funds being mismanaged.

This government is already finished anyway. One term government 💯

Even Nigel has significant concerns about the way that Israel has fought the war in Gaza and the blockade of food, which fits in with most of his voters thinking there has been genocide there:

https://www.gbnews.com/politics/israeli-ambassador-labour-david-lammy-nigel-farage

I wouldn’t presume that Starmer is going to be thinking about alienating Reform
voters when he decides his government’s policy towards the ME