Andrew Fox deaths in Gaza report

[ChangeyerNameyer]

I haven't seen much discussion of the report (here: https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/questionable-counting/) on mn or in real life. It includes some serious criticism on both the way news sources are reporting the number of dead in Gaza and also on the way Hamas is calculating the number of dead. In 19% of news reports, the Hamas numbers were presented as undisputed and quoted without even citing a source. This is especially worry because it seems that there has been widespread miscounting to make it look like more people died (i.e. counting people who died before October 7th and people who died of natural causes as war dead) and misidentifying people to make it seem like more women and children died (i.e. more than one person with the first name Mohammed was recorded as a woman and adults have been recorded as children). 84% of publications also failed distinguish between combatant and civilian deaths. Whilst any death is obviously a tragedy, it seems like we should be relieved to hear things may not be nearly as bad as we have been lead to believe.

The opening post contains these words.
it seems like we should be relieved to hear things may not be nearly as bad as we have been lead to believe.
Oh good - maybe only 10000 dead - that's alright then?

@SharonEllis Interesting that there is no substantive criticism of the report here.

I suggest you read the full thread. The report has been well and truly rebutted.

You need accurate casualty figures and you need to understand what is happening in a conflict.

Absolutely so why won't Israel allow independent observers in so this can be acheived? It is not good enough to hand wring about relying on Hamas run health ministry when something in Israel's control, can be done about that. No one is happy with the current situation.

The deleted thread had good analysis of it. I guess people can't be bothered doing it twice, which is understandable.

But no country has ever had accurate contemporaneous casualty figures for a major conflict. If you're interested look at the meticulous work of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia that took place to try and get accurate figures years later. Even the Siege of Sarajevo had no accurate figures (despite being in a fairly confined space) until ICT did an analysis. And surely if you do want to critique the numbers the first step is to allow in independent observers?

I've read the report, and have a number of questions. Firstly, why would Hamas let them have copies of the records if they were attempting to mislead? Also while I have no doubt that there is misreporting, a lot of it it "tinkering round the edges" - they give individual cases and there is no overall assessment of how different these figures would be if the supposed errors were corrected. It's a very poorly put together report with no adequate conclusion. Their main point is that there is a reliance on media reports and incomplete family submissions - this is the norm in armed conflict where the health care system and pretty much every other system has broken down (and why it is often only decades later that there is a fair estimate) - I really don't know what they expect.

There are people who spend their whole lives meticulously and independently estimating conflict fatalities with extensive experience and skills in demography (I know some of them). Andrew Fox is not one of these. He has a military background and supposedly has academic experience , in the War Studies and Behavioural Science departments at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. He does not appear to have any previous experience in estimating mortality, and his mail claim to fame seem to be a large following on twitter and substack. is also heavily biased towards Israel - the HJS itself in their bio of him say " He has taken a particularly strong stance on the Israel-Hamas war, arguing from a military perspective that the international hostility directed at how Israeli forces in Gaza have operated is entirely unwarranted." He has absolutely no credibility in this area.
Trust me, I'm no lover of Hamas, but I really don't see anything in the report that makes me feel any different about the appalling death toll,

Obviously war means there can't be precisely accurate figures for a whole variety of reasons but iterrogating data in a war is a completely normal and responsible thing to do.

@SharonEllis If you actually wanted to independently assess casualty estimates you would look at those potentially left off the lists as well as those on it to get a picture of both over- and under-reporting. And you wouldn't pick someone with an obvious bias and no experience to do so.

Well said!

The Hamas Health Ministry who have no bias?Usually in contested issues you take the data from various sources and evaluate with those biases in mind. The HJS contribution is perfectly legitimate and useful yet people here have dismissed it out of hand for political reasons.

@SharonEllis - I've never said they were, but if you want to counteract bias you don't do it with further bias. I am not saying that these sources are accurate, but Andrew Fox's ill-conceived report does nothing to undermine them. No-one can genuinely believe based on his lack of expertise and self-confessed agenda that there is an interest in undercovering the truth rather than minimising the suffering of Palestinian people here? He has no credentials, no peer review, yet his report is all over the press.

@SharonEllis Are satellite imagery also biased? It’s clearly obvious residential buildings are being targeted. You cannot deny that.

Usually in contested issues you take the data from various sources and evaluate with those biases in mind
Yes so why don't you respond to the question that has been asked numerous times on these boards, why won't Israel allow independent observers in to facilitate some of what you are suggesting?

@IWFH

Would it be 'better' if 'only' 10000 innocent Palestinian civilians had been killed rather than 40000?

Yes.

Why do you think it's a no?

How the hell do I know? I have no personal connection to Netanyahu or anyone in the Israeli government or military.

The mind boggles doesn't it? Who doesn't think its better to kill fewer civilians.

However you look at it though, there is no doubt that Hamas's figure has to contain combatants so all the people killed in gaza cannot all be 'innocent'.

I don't think anyone has ever said the figure won't include combatants?

They are not, then, by definition, innocent civilians.

@SharonEllis No of course not - again I haven't seen any estimates that assume all are? The question is the balance between combatants and non-combatants, including women and children.

No but you have a lot to say about the bias figures yet never seen to criticise Israel for not allowing independent observers in its weird when that is the most obvious solution.

Over 16,000 children are included in the figures that alone is enough to suggest this needs to stop.

Of course it has to stop. Hamas could relesse the hostages tomorrow, decommission their weapons and commit to a peace process. We don't know how many of those under 18s were combatants and its Hamas who are responsible for using teenage soldiers and taking away their innocence. Its evil beyond belief.

anyone that doesn’t know who this organisation is please look for it and their bias as it’s anti Muslim. So take all they say with a pinch of salt

10000 innocent deaths are terrible, 40000 innocent deaths are also terrible.

By your logic is a murderer who kills 10 people 'worse' than one who kills 9? Or if he's tried and found not guilty on one charge do you say ' ooh that wasn't as bad as I thought'
No - he's still a murderer.

Or is your position that no innocent civilians have been killed in Gaza and all the claimed deaths are combatants or Hamas lies?

Of course it has to stop. Hamas could relesse the hostages tomorrow, decommission their weapons and commit to a peace process
Yes they should but what happens then? Do the Israeli government miraculously stop seeing and referring to the Palestinians as subhuman animals and respect their right to self determination? I doubt it. I doubt any ceasefire with Isreali security controlling Gaza will bring any peace and healing to the Palestinians. I do not trust the Isreali government or the IDF. There needs to be security forces in Gaza yes but not the IDF they have demonstrated their hate for Palestinians and I do not believe Palestinians would be or feel safe with their presence in Gaza.

We don't know how many of those under 18s were combatants
No we don't or if any were. 16,000 children killed.

Whether you do or don't trust the IDF won't have any impact I'm afraid. Of course the Israeli government will have to agree to Palestinian self determination in any serious peace process. What they don't have to agree to is a terrorist state on their doorstep, which you seem to think is something that nobody can or should do anything about.
Hamas's use of child soldiers is well documented so of course some of the children are combatants. Pretending we can't know that is pretty myopic.