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Conflict in the Middle East

Is someone very clever and informed able to explain the happenings in Syria? As well as the broader context

51 replies

buzzheath · 10/12/2024 15:36

Obviously catching up with the news etc but quite confused. Although incredibly oppressive, it wasn't exactly an Islamist regime under al-Assad, was it? Was it a Western-backed regime at one point?

The coalition of groups that toppled the government - are these Islamist? Are they actually pro-democracy? What does it mean for the future if Syria? Will it be become like Afghanistan under the Tablian? Syrians seem pretty elated (based on photos in the media, etc) - why is this? Why have Russia and Iran supported Syria? What is Baathism?

OP posts:
1dayatatime · 12/12/2024 11:47

HTS are a designated terrorist group by the US.

The founder of HTS was once a participant in the Iraqi insurgency against the US as a member of the group that eventually became Islamic State.

amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/who-are-the-syrian-rebels-who-have-captured-damascus-explained-in-30-seconds

www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo

So despite the anti western sentiment of many posters and the desire of such posters to blame the US for all the ills of the world they are most definitely not backed by the US.

Currently they are allies with the Syrian National Army who are backed and armed by Turkey and it is alleged some of this support and weapons have found their way to HTS.

So if anyone then Turkey would be their main backer albeit very indirectly through the SNA.

1dayatatime · 12/12/2024 11:57

@OchaLove

"I don't think so for a few reasons:
First, people in Turkey, even who are close to government are baffled about HTS and not sure about trusting Al-Jolani. "

True but Turkey does directly support the SNA who in turn cooperate with HTS. So there is indirect support for HTS even if the Turkish Government is not deliberately providing it.

Having a potentially extreme Islamic fundamentalist failed state on their border may come back to bite Turkey in the future.

Second, Turkey can not do this level of coup-like change in Syria without USA backing.
I don't think that either Turkey or the US were seeking regime change in Syria it just so happened that HTS were strong, Hezbollah has been decimated and Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine. So HTS simply took advantage of the situation.

Third, if there would be no major USA backing, then there is no way HTS or Al-Jolani would have this much support in western mainstream media.

Western media despite conspiracy theorists are not controlled by the US Government. The reason Western media has become excited about the fall of Assad is that he was a brutal dictator and his fall must be a good thing. They naively assume whoever or what replaces him must be better than Assad. This might be the case but equally HTS could be worse. It's too early to tell.

Scirocco · 12/12/2024 17:15

Not sure about intelligent and informed, but here's my thoughts @buzzheath ...

"Although incredibly oppressive, it wasn't exactly an Islamist regime under al-Assad, was it?" Assad's regime was oppressive and cruel, characterised by human rights abuses. Assad used chemical weapons against his own people, his regime tortured children... Something doesn't have to be Islamist to be awful. In his efforts to hold on to power, Assad catalysed a civil war that has torn Syria apart.

"What is Baathism?"
Ba'athism arose from, I suppose the simplest description would be, an Arab nationalist ideology, combining ideas of socialism with a one-party state. The main examples of how this manifested have been Saddam Hussain and Assad, both of whom used authoritarian and frankly dictatorial approaches to holding on to power, so the practical examples are quite far removed from much of the original theory.

"Why have Russia and Iran supported Syria?"
They supported Syria because it was strategically useful to do so - once it was less useful, their support decreased substantially, as we saw. Syria was a useful link in Iran's 'Axis of Resistance', which Iran viewed/views as important for its geopolitical survival (Iran sees itself as being victimised and under threat, and in a fight for its own existence). That network has been crippled recently and that changed some of the equations going on behind the scenes.

"The coalition of groups that toppled the government - are these Islamist?"
The coalition of groups fighting against Assad's regime has been diverse, changed over time, and involves groups of very different political viewpoints. Groups have splintered, re-positioned themselves, fought each other... There are groups that have their origins in some very unsavoury connections (eg Al Qaeda, IS) and which are currently classed as terrorist organisations in the UK (currently subject to review). The push to oust Assad has had Western backing, and the main groups involved have done a lot of re-branding of themselves recently, so whether there are still major players who'll push for Islamism remains to be seen.

"Are they actually pro-democracy? What does it mean for the future of Syria?"
The main groups seem to be trying to assure the international community that they don't want to fight their neighbours, or oppress minorities, but whether that's sincere or not will take time to see. An interim government is being put in place, and a lot of questions can only be answered with "we'll need to wait and see" at this stage. The future of Syria is very uncertain at this time - lots of different groups and regional powers will have their own competing agendas.

"Syrians seem pretty elated (based on photos in the media, etc) - why is this?"
Assad is gone. There is uncertainty over what happens next, but there's now hope where it felt like there was none, and a sense of long-awaited justice in his fall from power. People who have spent years in exile from their homes may now have a future where they can see home again. People whose loved ones were in prisons may be reunited with them, or at least find out if their loved ones are dead. People whose loved ones were brutally killed and had their bodies disrespected may now be able to re-bury them with dignity or at least have a proper memorial for them. The past few days have been an emotional whirlwind for a lot of people, and in amongst the celebrations for hope for a free Syria, there is also a lot of trauma being processed and a lot of healing starting. People don't know what will happen next, but right now, Assad is gone.

buzzheath · 12/12/2024 17:18

Scirocco · 12/12/2024 17:15

Not sure about intelligent and informed, but here's my thoughts @buzzheath ...

"Although incredibly oppressive, it wasn't exactly an Islamist regime under al-Assad, was it?" Assad's regime was oppressive and cruel, characterised by human rights abuses. Assad used chemical weapons against his own people, his regime tortured children... Something doesn't have to be Islamist to be awful. In his efforts to hold on to power, Assad catalysed a civil war that has torn Syria apart.

"What is Baathism?"
Ba'athism arose from, I suppose the simplest description would be, an Arab nationalist ideology, combining ideas of socialism with a one-party state. The main examples of how this manifested have been Saddam Hussain and Assad, both of whom used authoritarian and frankly dictatorial approaches to holding on to power, so the practical examples are quite far removed from much of the original theory.

"Why have Russia and Iran supported Syria?"
They supported Syria because it was strategically useful to do so - once it was less useful, their support decreased substantially, as we saw. Syria was a useful link in Iran's 'Axis of Resistance', which Iran viewed/views as important for its geopolitical survival (Iran sees itself as being victimised and under threat, and in a fight for its own existence). That network has been crippled recently and that changed some of the equations going on behind the scenes.

"The coalition of groups that toppled the government - are these Islamist?"
The coalition of groups fighting against Assad's regime has been diverse, changed over time, and involves groups of very different political viewpoints. Groups have splintered, re-positioned themselves, fought each other... There are groups that have their origins in some very unsavoury connections (eg Al Qaeda, IS) and which are currently classed as terrorist organisations in the UK (currently subject to review). The push to oust Assad has had Western backing, and the main groups involved have done a lot of re-branding of themselves recently, so whether there are still major players who'll push for Islamism remains to be seen.

"Are they actually pro-democracy? What does it mean for the future of Syria?"
The main groups seem to be trying to assure the international community that they don't want to fight their neighbours, or oppress minorities, but whether that's sincere or not will take time to see. An interim government is being put in place, and a lot of questions can only be answered with "we'll need to wait and see" at this stage. The future of Syria is very uncertain at this time - lots of different groups and regional powers will have their own competing agendas.

"Syrians seem pretty elated (based on photos in the media, etc) - why is this?"
Assad is gone. There is uncertainty over what happens next, but there's now hope where it felt like there was none, and a sense of long-awaited justice in his fall from power. People who have spent years in exile from their homes may now have a future where they can see home again. People whose loved ones were in prisons may be reunited with them, or at least find out if their loved ones are dead. People whose loved ones were brutally killed and had their bodies disrespected may now be able to re-bury them with dignity or at least have a proper memorial for them. The past few days have been an emotional whirlwind for a lot of people, and in amongst the celebrations for hope for a free Syria, there is also a lot of trauma being processed and a lot of healing starting. People don't know what will happen next, but right now, Assad is gone.

This has been the most comprehensive, informed-sounding and detailed response yet - thank you! Lots for me to look into and look up, based on that.

OP posts:
Xenia · 12/12/2024 20:07

Yes, good post. I hope it does not end up like the Taliban in Afghanistan who at first said some quite positive things about women's rights and education which turned out to be a bunch of lies for the Western media's benefit only.

I hope Syrians now have freedom of speech, even if it is to praise Assad or Christianity or rights for women, even if the new leaders hate the views being expressed.

Cecilly · 12/12/2024 21:52

I really doubt that Al Julani et al will be even remotely interested in democracy in Syria. These are the same people who a few short years ago were beheading twelve year olds and burning people alive in cages. They can shave their beards and trot themselves on CNN but it doesn't change who they are or what they stand for.

Lalaloveya · 12/12/2024 22:13

SharonEllis · 12/12/2024 08:16

Can you post the evidence for direct US support of HTS?

Sharon, they don't announce when they're backing terrorist groups in foreign coups 😂

User37482 · 12/12/2024 22:27

queenofarles · 11/12/2024 10:46

it wasn't exactly an Islamist regime under al-Assad; No , they are Ba’ath , think of it as communism ideology.

Was it a Western-backed regime at one point? Not really

thecoalition of groups that toppled the government - are these Islamist? yes , the majority of Syrians are Muslims ,

Are they actually pro-democracy? yes

What does it mean for the future if Syria? too soon to tell,

Will it be become like Afghanistan under the Tablian? No,
no matter how much western media are spreading this statement backed by pro Assad , Kurdish , and Israelis, Iranian <yes really> and Russians.

syrians seem pretty elated (based on photos in the media, etc) - why is they’ve been living under a military police state for the last 50 years , bashar’s father was nicknamed the serial killer of Syria.

hundreds of thousands were either killed or imprisoned under his and his fathers rule.

another more detailed post will follow shortly

I’m not sure HTS has promised democracy.

There are numerous groups, SNA (turkish backed, obsessed with Kurds) HTS (previously al-nursa which was al-qaeda backed) Kurds, Druze, southern forces which are mainly sunni arabs who chucked al nusra and sna out of their areas. Druze do their own thing but have generally been left alone since the Ottomans to do their own thing and Kurds who are guarding Isis and fighting Isis but can’t because they are being attacked by SNA (backed by USA but only in certain areas) also been pushed out of some areas due to SNA activity.

It’s unlikely to become like the taliban because the taliban mix their own culture and islam and syrians have their own culture but Idlib which was governed by HTS was very conservative. Initially minorities were oppressed (think churches being burned) but they came to an uneasy truce with minimal harassment but also no representation at governance level. So very much second class status.

I’m actually quite optimistic for Syria despite all this. I fervently hope that whats to come is better than what Syrian’s (all of them, regardless of ethnicity and religion) have suffered.

User37482 · 12/12/2024 22:31

Lalaloveya · 12/12/2024 22:13

Sharon, they don't announce when they're backing terrorist groups in foreign coups 😂

There was minimal arms provided to the free syrian army at the beginning. I don’t think the USA has been arming al-qaeda in Syria which is what al-nusra front is. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Israelis armed the Druze.

Frankly having seen the videos of the poor souls at sedanya prison, I saw a ex medical student who was emaciated and could only say “aleppo” while smiling blankly (they utterly destroyed his mind) any Syrian should be happy to see the fall of Assad. He and his father, just monsters, utterly depraved, the worst of humanity.

User37482 · 12/12/2024 22:33

Scirocco · 12/12/2024 17:15

Not sure about intelligent and informed, but here's my thoughts @buzzheath ...

"Although incredibly oppressive, it wasn't exactly an Islamist regime under al-Assad, was it?" Assad's regime was oppressive and cruel, characterised by human rights abuses. Assad used chemical weapons against his own people, his regime tortured children... Something doesn't have to be Islamist to be awful. In his efforts to hold on to power, Assad catalysed a civil war that has torn Syria apart.

"What is Baathism?"
Ba'athism arose from, I suppose the simplest description would be, an Arab nationalist ideology, combining ideas of socialism with a one-party state. The main examples of how this manifested have been Saddam Hussain and Assad, both of whom used authoritarian and frankly dictatorial approaches to holding on to power, so the practical examples are quite far removed from much of the original theory.

"Why have Russia and Iran supported Syria?"
They supported Syria because it was strategically useful to do so - once it was less useful, their support decreased substantially, as we saw. Syria was a useful link in Iran's 'Axis of Resistance', which Iran viewed/views as important for its geopolitical survival (Iran sees itself as being victimised and under threat, and in a fight for its own existence). That network has been crippled recently and that changed some of the equations going on behind the scenes.

"The coalition of groups that toppled the government - are these Islamist?"
The coalition of groups fighting against Assad's regime has been diverse, changed over time, and involves groups of very different political viewpoints. Groups have splintered, re-positioned themselves, fought each other... There are groups that have their origins in some very unsavoury connections (eg Al Qaeda, IS) and which are currently classed as terrorist organisations in the UK (currently subject to review). The push to oust Assad has had Western backing, and the main groups involved have done a lot of re-branding of themselves recently, so whether there are still major players who'll push for Islamism remains to be seen.

"Are they actually pro-democracy? What does it mean for the future of Syria?"
The main groups seem to be trying to assure the international community that they don't want to fight their neighbours, or oppress minorities, but whether that's sincere or not will take time to see. An interim government is being put in place, and a lot of questions can only be answered with "we'll need to wait and see" at this stage. The future of Syria is very uncertain at this time - lots of different groups and regional powers will have their own competing agendas.

"Syrians seem pretty elated (based on photos in the media, etc) - why is this?"
Assad is gone. There is uncertainty over what happens next, but there's now hope where it felt like there was none, and a sense of long-awaited justice in his fall from power. People who have spent years in exile from their homes may now have a future where they can see home again. People whose loved ones were in prisons may be reunited with them, or at least find out if their loved ones are dead. People whose loved ones were brutally killed and had their bodies disrespected may now be able to re-bury them with dignity or at least have a proper memorial for them. The past few days have been an emotional whirlwind for a lot of people, and in amongst the celebrations for hope for a free Syria, there is also a lot of trauma being processed and a lot of healing starting. People don't know what will happen next, but right now, Assad is gone.

good summary

User37482 · 12/12/2024 22:34

Interestingly ba’thism as an ideology started in Syria, by a Christian who thought it would dampen sectarianism. Great idea, badly applied.

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 06:46

Lalaloveya · 12/12/2024 22:13

Sharon, they don't announce when they're backing terrorist groups in foreign coups 😂

I didn't ask for a link to an announcement. But the person who says they are backed by the US must have some sort of evidence. Otherwise they are just making things up, right?

Einaldilastcup · 13/12/2024 06:59

One oppressive regime taken over by a new one.

They are ISIS rebranded. I genuinely feel sorry for the females in this country because I’d bet my house on it things are going to change very quickly for them - and not for the better. Why do you think the west is gearing up for a deluge of refugees

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 08:15

User37482 · 12/12/2024 22:31

There was minimal arms provided to the free syrian army at the beginning. I don’t think the USA has been arming al-qaeda in Syria which is what al-nusra front is. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Israelis armed the Druze.

Frankly having seen the videos of the poor souls at sedanya prison, I saw a ex medical student who was emaciated and could only say “aleppo” while smiling blankly (they utterly destroyed his mind) any Syrian should be happy to see the fall of Assad. He and his father, just monsters, utterly depraved, the worst of humanity.

I thought al nusra front split (pretty acrimoniously) from al qaeda & merged with others to form HTS.

Lalaloveya · 13/12/2024 08:45

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 06:46

I didn't ask for a link to an announcement. But the person who says they are backed by the US must have some sort of evidence. Otherwise they are just making things up, right?

No I don't think that that is the only logical conclusion. Are you familiar with US foreign policy tactics in the last 50 years?

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 08:51

Lalaloveya · 13/12/2024 08:45

No I don't think that that is the only logical conclusion. Are you familiar with US foreign policy tactics in the last 50 years?

What, the tactics where they hide all evidence of their tactics, but people on mumsnet still know exactly what they are, and we all know that they must know, because....obviously.....?

Lalaloveya · 13/12/2024 09:47

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 08:51

What, the tactics where they hide all evidence of their tactics, but people on mumsnet still know exactly what they are, and we all know that they must know, because....obviously.....?

It comes out in the end.

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 09:51

Lalaloveya · 13/12/2024 09:47

It comes out in the end.

Sometimes things do, sometimes they don't. A poster said America was supporting HTS. Its a simple enough question to ask how they know that. Interesting that you're not bothered by evidence & think its weird for people to want it. Good to know.

queenofarles · 13/12/2024 09:54

Perhaps take your own advice and do a simple google search? Lots of statements coming from the US in favour of the events going on in Syria , a whole country doesn’t just fall in days.

better yet , to help you get an idea of the complexity of the region, go further back and have a look at who supported khomeni against the Shah?
Who supported the Afghan Mujahdeen against the Soviets?

How did the Taliban overthrow the democratically elected Afghan government lead by pro US Allies like Ghani and karazi?

backup Comes either directly or indirectly through other Allies in the region .

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 10:12

queenofarles · 13/12/2024 09:54

Perhaps take your own advice and do a simple google search? Lots of statements coming from the US in favour of the events going on in Syria , a whole country doesn’t just fall in days.

better yet , to help you get an idea of the complexity of the region, go further back and have a look at who supported khomeni against the Shah?
Who supported the Afghan Mujahdeen against the Soviets?

How did the Taliban overthrow the democratically elected Afghan government lead by pro US Allies like Ghani and karazi?

backup Comes either directly or indirectly through other Allies in the region .

Obviously I'm doing my own research and came up with various things, many of them conflicting, none of them suggesting direct US government support for HTS in the past. I agree a country doesn't just collapse out of the blue but the Americans as much as anyone else do seem to have been caught on the hop a bit. I wasn't so much interested in Aghanistan etc (and America has changed a lot since the end of the Cold War) but the specifics of Syria - while other conflicts can be instructive they can also confuse. I was interested in your sources and evidence - thats how you get a useful discussion where you learn stuff. But ok, if you don't want to do that. I'll leave it .

ladymactíre · 13/12/2024 12:05

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 10:12

Obviously I'm doing my own research and came up with various things, many of them conflicting, none of them suggesting direct US government support for HTS in the past. I agree a country doesn't just collapse out of the blue but the Americans as much as anyone else do seem to have been caught on the hop a bit. I wasn't so much interested in Aghanistan etc (and America has changed a lot since the end of the Cold War) but the specifics of Syria - while other conflicts can be instructive they can also confuse. I was interested in your sources and evidence - thats how you get a useful discussion where you learn stuff. But ok, if you don't want to do that. I'll leave it .

If HTS has any connection with Al Qaeda, which I think they do, like any other similar "organisation", than US money is there. I listened to Sarah Adams on Shawn Ryan Show (episodes 81 116 149), US money go to the taliban, taliban give it to al qaeda and then it trickles down to where ever they have interests. It's like a spider web. She explains it quite well, with a lot of names and who's related to whom and who married whose daughter
She says Julani was given 10000 fighters by Al Qaeda and the taliban gave him camps in Afghanistan to train
They are all part of the big islamic army
Almost 3 billion dollars went to Afghanistan as humanitarian aid and counter terrorism funds since the taliban took power. I doubt they were used for the well-being of the Afghan people
I looked for her as I was interested in the Benghazi attack (2012), but she knows A LOT about Al qaeda.
Also, Ahmad Massoud, northern alliance commander speaks about it on the same show.

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 12:12

ladymactíre · 13/12/2024 12:05

If HTS has any connection with Al Qaeda, which I think they do, like any other similar "organisation", than US money is there. I listened to Sarah Adams on Shawn Ryan Show (episodes 81 116 149), US money go to the taliban, taliban give it to al qaeda and then it trickles down to where ever they have interests. It's like a spider web. She explains it quite well, with a lot of names and who's related to whom and who married whose daughter
She says Julani was given 10000 fighters by Al Qaeda and the taliban gave him camps in Afghanistan to train
They are all part of the big islamic army
Almost 3 billion dollars went to Afghanistan as humanitarian aid and counter terrorism funds since the taliban took power. I doubt they were used for the well-being of the Afghan people
I looked for her as I was interested in the Benghazi attack (2012), but she knows A LOT about Al qaeda.
Also, Ahmad Massoud, northern alliance commander speaks about it on the same show.

My understanding is that HTS or its antecedents split with al qaeda. If we're talking money trickling through networks then everyone is impliicated one way or another, not least because in such a volatile conflict alliances shift all the time. My understanding of 'direct support' is different.

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 12:13

But thanks @ladymactíre for a considered response which I will look at!

ladymactíre · 13/12/2024 12:54

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 12:12

My understanding is that HTS or its antecedents split with al qaeda. If we're talking money trickling through networks then everyone is impliicated one way or another, not least because in such a volatile conflict alliances shift all the time. My understanding of 'direct support' is different.

It looks like ALQaeda just want to keep their name out of any discussion, so they can do their work in peace and quiet.

SharonEllis · 13/12/2024 14:40

ladymactíre · 13/12/2024 12:54

It looks like ALQaeda just want to keep their name out of any discussion, so they can do their work in peace and quiet.

I'm not sure I agree. But I'll look into it.

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