Is someone very clever and informed able to explain the happenings in Syria? As well as the broader context

[buzzheath]

Obviously catching up with the news etc but quite confused. Although incredibly oppressive, it wasn't exactly an Islamist regime under al-Assad, was it? Was it a Western-backed regime at one point?

The coalition of groups that toppled the government - are these Islamist? Are they actually pro-democracy? What does it mean for the future if Syria? Will it be become like Afghanistan under the Tablian? Syrians seem pretty elated (based on photos in the media, etc) - why is this? Why have Russia and Iran supported Syria? What is Baathism?

it wasn't exactly an Islamist regime under al-Assad; No , they are Ba’ath , think of it as communism ideology.

Was it a Western-backed regime at one point? Not really

thecoalition of groups that toppled the government - are these Islamist? yes , the majority of Syrians are Muslims ,

Are they actually pro-democracy? yes

What does it mean for the future if Syria? too soon to tell,

Will it be become like Afghanistan under the Tablian? No,
no matter how much western media are spreading this statement backed by pro Assad , Kurdish , and Israelis, Iranian <yes really> and Russians.

syrians seem pretty elated (based on photos in the media, etc) - why is they’ve been living under a military police state for the last 50 years , bashar’s father was nicknamed the serial killer of Syria.

hundreds of thousands were either killed or imprisoned under his and his fathers rule.

another more detailed post will follow shortly

They are also elated because the decade + long war ended.

Syrians seem pretty elated (based on photos in the media, etc) - why is this?

Bashar al-Assad committed war crimes, including using chemical weapons against civilians. I don't know much about it, or about the people who've taken over. But I can see that if I lived there, I'd be happy to see this guy gone even if it meant jumping into the unknown.

Bit confused by your third point - I'm aware most Syrians are Muslims, but I was asking whether the various groups that toppled the Assad regime are Islamist in nature. You then also say they're pro-democracy - is that not contradictory?

What’s confusing ? It will help if you point out what’s contradictory?

Islamist is absolutely not the same as Muslim.

We have no idea whether they're pro-democracy yer.

Perhaos op you'd do better to google & use reliable resources? All your questions could be answered with some fairly basic research.

Newscast has a good podcast on what happens next which I found quite interesting. Worth a listen if you have time.

why not take things from the source it’s self , the president of the provisional government has been talking about all the challenges they are facing , their main concern is security and stabilizing the country and quick return to normalcy. Banks and some businesses have opened today and they are working on reopening the airport in the next coming days , some municipalities are gradually functioning.

linking the events in Syria to Taliban and showing concerns just just because you’ve heard it somewhere , can be infuriating to some, even the most liberal Syrians, Lebanese are rejoicing the end of half a century of a terror state.

Great post. Thanks for taking the time.

For anyone interested @ AJASyria are doing a great job at reporting the current situation in Syria , all videos are Sub.

I'm astounded at the sheer speed at which HTS, one of many rebel groups, advanced and succeeded - who backed and financed them, the USA?

I'm quite knowledgeable about Middle East politics and the various ruling regimes and factions but have to admit to being blindsided by this.

He is former Al Qaeda....I don't think we can be sure of his pro-democracy spin right now. They could be trading one dictatorship for another. Let's hope not.

It baffles me when someone suggests googling to find the answers, you could say that about every single question ever posed on here. This is a forum with what a million users? You're going to get some of the best, most considered and independent opinions possible on here surely?!

astounded at the sheer speed at which HTS, one of many rebel groups, advanced and succeeded - who backed and financed them, the USA?
It was so fast , I don’t believe any of the talk that it was in the works for years , definitely lots of backing from the US.

I think any foreign support was mainly from Turkey.
They were originally set up as a branch of Al Qaeda but split with both Al Qaeda and ISIS.
They are currently officially described as terrorist by many western countries and the leader has a $10 million bounty on his head from the US government.
That is probably all under review now.
In the parts of Syria they already controlled they seemed more interested in in running the place then throwing people off roofs.
There a lot of statements being made now about protecting minorities. I have not heard any address the issue of the future of women in Syria.

It is the strangest offensive in recent conflicts. The "Rebels" encountered so little resistance it almost looked planned.

From journalists in the region who I've been listening to and who've spoken to military/diplomats in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran and Russia. It was a complete collapse of the Syrian Arab Army (Assads forces) due to a number of factors:
*Assad had failed to modernise the army and the ground troops were unable to deal with the drones.

• Initially there was limited fighting with the Syrian and Russian airforce targetting and eliminating a lot of "rebels".

• Orders were given to the SAA (unsure whether from Assad or his General's without his knowledge) to withdraw from defensive positions, first in Aleppo, then Hamah, then Homs.

• Due to sanctions the soldiers (mostly conscripts) were only paid $40 a month. They were tired of war (over 90000 killed since the beginning of the civil war) and many ripped off their uniforms and fled.
  https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1865927069005177047

*Lack of money also made it easy to "bribe" the military higher ups.

*Assad refused help from Russia and Iran (and proxies) who were in Syria and ready to fight. They all withdrew as "how can we fight for an army that doesn't want fight".

• In the last hours it was a negotiation for Assad to step down if the "rebels" guarantee not to target minorities.

In my opinion the country was tired after 13 years of war and nearly 500'000 deaths.

https://www.syriahr.com/en/328044/

I think Assad deliberately and defiantly gave the Syrian opposition and it's backers what they wanted.

A "rebel" group including ex ISIS and Al Qaeda fighters (many from around the world), who've had a PR makeover.

There are many videos of summary executions and women are being asked to identify what they are (Christian, Alawite, Shia etc) and people are being mis/treated according to their religion.

https://x.com/iraqschristians/status/1866572625192902700

It is simpler to believe in good and bad but life and regimes and revolutions and countries are always much more complicated than that. Assad's regime was terrible and if this has given anyone the chance to destroy its chemical weapons that's brilliant as the last thing we want is for ISIS or Al Q or anyone else to get its hand on them and use them on anyone anywhere.

As for if things will be better - hopefully but it is very complicated - freeing terrible ISIS killers from jail may not go too well and has shades of Russia releasing murderers to become soldiers killing Ukrainians. Prisoner release is not 100% a good thing here but obviously good for those who are innocent and held without proper trial..

This could be a good chance for the 28,000 Syrians in the UK to return to the new free Syria and I see Germany is offering £1k per asylum seeker in Germany to return to Syria too. Syria will need the skills, talents and hard work probably of most of the UK's 28,000 Syrians and we will wish those who return well in building the new Syria.

I hope the new Syria will have full democracy and equal rights for women and that women will be free more than now over there in what is a fairly mixed country which has kurds and many different peoples in it. I am optimistic.

Its a discussion forum, not a place to farm out tasks to other people to do your research for you. You just get a load of randoms giving their opinion as if it was fact. Which is competely different to posting an article for discussion or asking for opinions on a particular issue, or for others experience of something.

Definitely lots of backing from the US.

^

Ok, but how? The US sending the rebels money?!? How have they been backed??

"I think any foreign support was mainly from Turkey."

I don't think so for a few reasons:
First, people in Turkey, even who are close to government are baffled about HTS and not sure about trusting Al-Jolani.
Second, Turkey can not do this level of coup-like change in Syria without USA backing.
Third, if there would be no major USA backing, then there is no way HTS or Al-Jolani would have this much support in western mainstream media.

Where's the evidence that HTS is backed by the US? They support the Syrian Free army and designated HTS a terror group.

Not just money support comes in many ways , sharing coordinates , intelligence , weapons .

Ahmed Al-Sharaa stated that they are working with international organizations to secure potential chemical weapons sites, and the Pentagon acknowledged and thanked them for that.

later on Blinken said "he envisions an 'opportunity' for Syria to transition from turmoil towards unity, advocating for an 'inclusive' political shift that unites all factions."

their tone has changed but still they have some reserves naturally.

Can you post the evidence for direct US support of HTS?

I doubt the US is very happy with terrorists but sometimes politics involve people having to deal with people with whom they don't like. The enemy of my enemy is my friend kind of thing.

Sure, thats geo politics. And it changes all the time too - you might support a group in one situation and not in another. I'm just trying to get at what the evidence is for direct US support for HTS. Apparently we can expect some of the most informed people sharing their knowledge here, so it would be great to see it.