Future US support for Israel and a 2SS

[Polka83]

US jet fighters in the ME provide are currently providing a warning to Iran not to retaliate after Israeli strikes. There has also been billions of dollars of other military aid given to Israel.

Of course this strengthens Israeli hands. Netanyahu has joked about support of evangelicals’ support for Israel and how this enables him to act with impunity towards Palestinians and their rights.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1423118978249848&id=728550392640538

However - as US becomes more secular - what does this mean about ongoing support for Israel in the face of what it has inflicted on Palestinians?

Could this ultimately draw Israel to work constructively towards a 2SS?

https://english.m.tau.ac.il/news/declining-support-of-young-evangelicals

There are polls showing decline of church affiliations in US of people are interested.

I doubt that the support in the US comes mostly from the evangelicals. At the same time, yes, it seems like the younger generation who has seen the survivors videos and not just dry santised news updates will not be ready to keep the status quo. Something will need to change

I suspect that ultimately what is relevant here is not how many American evangelicals feel an emotional attachment to Israel or not (in any case many of them live in solidly Republican states so probably this issue has little actual importance in terms of the outcome of any election), but rather the extent to which the American administration sees Israel as a strategic ally against the Iran/Russia axis.

@israelilefty
Those are good points but Christians did provide political support of Israel and US Church affiliation has fallen from 70% in 1990s to less than 50%.
As this percentage falls further and more people take a less literal view of the bible, the political support will fall further - even amongst GOP voters.

Americans support Ukraine but they are not sending US troops there, nor allowing their weapons to be used offensively into Russia.

If political support declines - so may the nature of the support? In this election, people are already upset at the fact that their tax dollars have contributed to what is happening in Gaza.

@Polka83 Im not sure where your figures are from or what 'church affiliation' is exactly, but data for last year shows 70% of American identify as Christian with only 14% as evangelical Protestant. While the number was declining a bit in recent years that decline has stabilised. And I don't think the evangelicals have been as significant as you seem to imply. There are many other reasons why someone would support Israel.

Church affiliation is related to those who actually belong to a church and visit. There are Gallop polls that specifically track this. Netanyahu appeared to think US religious support for Israel was previously important.

The US will want to use/ support Israel to manage Iran/ Russia alliance in the foreseeable future, and this will also due to ME being a major oil supplier.

However, the IDF’s actions against the Palestinians have led to changes in how Americans view military aid to Israel and increased support for Palestinians. This as well as a less prominent role of religion in people’s lives and the harsh way the US have handled student protests will, I think, influence future voters. I hope it will enforce the need for a 2SS resolution and make future military aid contingent on it. Netanyahu and his government appear to be on a mad land grab before their opportunity expires.

abcnews.go.com/538/americans-israels-war-gaza-year-after-oct-7/story?id=114489775

@Polka83 sorry, can't see where the abc link makes a connection between religion and attitudes to Israel/Palestine.

Church-goers are neither here nor there. If anything, the new testament does not support the killings.
The politicians of both parties on the other hand...
98% of AIPAC-backed candidates won their general election races in 2022.

I guess the younger generation will demand more transparency, then things could change.

Agree about church goers. Not clear what point you're making about Aipac though?

The foreign policy is exceptionally rare on the ballot in elections, so the US politicians do not care what the church-goers think, and the voters don't really care (most of the time) what the US policy is towards some country outside of the US borders.
AIPAC does care what the US policy towards Israel is. So they make extra effort to support the politicians who would be happy to support AIPAC's preferred actions. My point is AIPAC matters, plus they themselves boast about their efficiency.

I agree with my @myearthisflat
Firstly, foreign policy is not an election issue.
Secondly, the falling off in church attendance has been linked to a hardening of existing attitudes on social issues, rather than a shift leftwards.
Thirdly, the culture of the Jewish diaspora is inextricably interwoven with American popular culture, so there is a deep seated affection and identification with Israel.Bagels, Broadway, the Reuben sandwich are more American than the proverbial apple pie. To be American is to be a bit Jewish. The same is not true of Muslims actors on the international stage. So we see that support for 7/10 victims has more traction than that for the larger number of Palestinian civilians with whom Americans do not identify.The status quo is that grassroots Americans support Israel and it would take a lot to change that and even then at a glacial pace.
Lastly, policy on Israel is shaped by stakeholders other than the electorate.AIPAC is hugely influential in relation to US policy on Israel. Miriam Adelson also holds a huge sway with the Republicans. There is a complex ecosystem of defence contractors, weapons developers, lobbyists, employers etc . Israel uses aid to buy US weapons and this provides much needed US manufacturing jobs. America co-operates on weapons development using Israeli brains and US money. They test get to test the weapons in real life in the Middle East. Surplus weapons can be exported for the Israeli secret hoard that is stockpiled for Israel’s next inevitable war
.Defence contractors need high level security clearance so the contractors are typically ex military so there is a kind of golden inside circle of insiders and consultants. Blinken has a finger in the latter pie himself with a consulting firm. Then there are contracts that are legally binding to supply weapons.
However, if Netanyahu succeeds on getting American boots on the ground, the situation could change quickly if there are American casualties.

Oh wow, @Kindatired ,
I had no idea about the specifics. That's helpful, thanks.
I thought there must be a reinforcing loop of the budgeted military aid that has to be spent on US contractors and part of their profits would oil the merry-go-round to ensure the next years' military aid. It looks like over the years the interconnectedness became much stronger.

@Kindatired
Agree that there are issues over and above what is happening in Gaza that the majority of the electorate may put first. But disagree that it may not play a deciding factor in certain crucial states which may decide the election. Stein may have cost Clinton her election.

Chicken tikka masala is basically an English national dish but don’t see this influencing policies UK has towards India.

Israel does have to spend its US military aid on US weapons and agree with cooperation on weapon development. I am sure that some powerful pockets have been lined by the destruction of Gaza. I can’t see this be a factor that necessarily influences move towards a 2SS. The US wants to see Israel normalise its relations with other countries in the ME and for some - particularly Saudi Arabia- a 2SS is important for this.

Agree changes in attitude may take time, but don’t agree that it’s going to be glacial. The demographics of US electorate is changing quickly.
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/americas-electoral-future-3/

AIPAC is powerful but they are spending more and more to maintain their influence. They have raised $100 million to spend on 2024 election. Seems to smack of desperation.

I hope these factors do favour increase pressure on Israel to accept a 2SS

Foreign aid has always been tied to the donor's economic interests - buying goods produced by the donor is standard practice.

There’s an interesting feature in today’s Washington post about the top megadonars in the US elections. Six out of the top 10 are Jewish or one half of a Jewish couple. This makes me think that they are likely to have some degree of interest in Israel. The other 4 are mostly old money, socially and economically conservative apart from Musk at number 4. Musk has been cosying up to Netanyahu recently but the Middle East is a side issue for him I think.
There’s Miriam Adelson of course, at number 3.She’s the woman who got to recognize Jersusalem as the capital of Israel. El Pais today claims she is the top donor for Trump and observes “The eighth-richest woman in the world will not be content with merely leaving a book in the White House.”
Jeff Yass and wife at number 4.Yass has given millions of dollars to right wing think tanks in Israel including one the Koehler Policy forum that has various spin offs involved in settlement.
At number 7, we have Paul Singer, whose foundation funds the Foundation for the defence of democracies, a hawkish pro-Israeli think tank/ lobby group.
8 Bloomberg- democrat supporter, supportive of Israeli civilians / communities in aftermath of 7/10 and generally a good guy.
9 . Stephen Schwartzmam ditto but republican
10.Dustin Moskovitz- democrat decent guy who gave millions for ambulances to Israel but low key and at least has given some thought to the plight of ordinary Palestinians.
So if Trump is successful, I think we will see a very hawkish policy being demanded by the backers but if Harris gets in, there is a better chance for dialogue and consequently to save any surviving hostages.
And against a background of these sums of money, churchgoing habits pale into insignificance
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/biggest-campaign-donors-election-2024/?itid=sf_elections_elections_2024_e2024-with-integrated-luf_p001_f007

@Kindatired
I wouldn’t be dismissive of Christian influence within US politics. This is the country that has reversed Roe vs Wade and has the GOP wanting to increase influence of Christianity in politics (Project25).

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/project-2025-heritage-foundation-christian-nationalism-rcna103510

However - given findings of reduced church affiliation etc already mentioned - I do wonder how long it will be till it’s unwound even if Trump wins.

Rich donors clearly have huge influence on US politics but when you have population that is becoming more liberal, more culturally diverse, more highly educated - then the politics will also change. Undoubtedly this is the reason in itself for Project25. White Christian conservatives will be becoming a minority in the US.