What price will Israel pay?

[Catatonican]

Whichever side you support, surrounded by enemies near and far, undoubtedly whatever the outcome of this war, Israel will need to pay a price.

Some say the price is 24/7 vigilance. What are your thoughts?

I think, regardless of what's happening now, Israel is in serious trouble going forward. It can't fight its way to peace. It needs a two state solution and peace with its neighbours as fast as possible, even that might not be enough long term for the continuation of the 'Jewish State'. The world is changing, the influence and number of Muslim Americans and Europeans is growing while Jewish populations are shrinking comparatively. This will probably influence policy towards Israel in the future. Even within Israel itself the demographic is changing. Already 20% of the population is not Jewish, these people have a voice and a vote, and a higher birth rate than the Jews.

So, what do you think is going to happen?

I don't know.
I think Israel needs a two state solution even more than the Palestinians do though.

Why? Not saying you're wrong just trying to understand. I certainly think 2SS is essential.

Perhaps because a true 2 state solution might create more of a basis for mutual tolerance and respect, and mutual consent that Israel and Palestine each exists and will not go away.

This could begin to replace pre-emptive, aggressive defence policies and the crime of theft of land against Palestinians by the Israeli government, and revenge and ideological aggressive terrorist strikes by Palestinian terror groups against Israelis.

I know this is probably too much to hope for.

We will all pay the price, unfortunately.

Eg

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g5evx4y7xo

I don't know precisely what price Israel will pay, put I believe for every action there is a reaction and that the world is more interconnected than we often presume.

This situation will be felt most strongly by those directly involved now, but will also be felt by the generations which have yet to be born on those lands as well as the rest of the world in one way or another.

I was wondering whether the biggest threat to the current Iranian regime, including proxies, is actually more progressive elements from within those regions. In particular whether the current violence will perpetuate or even encourage belligerent elements on both sides, or, undermine them in favour of more tolerant ideas.

I found this interesting https://merip.org/2024/10/a-primer-on-lebanon-history-palestine-and-resistance-to-israeli-violence/ particularly the 19thc and early 20thc view of the wider region not just Israel/Palestine.

Maybe the price will be the concessions that Israel needs to give towards a 2SS? Back to the 1967 borders? Can’t see that at present though as time proceeds - the more concessions Israel may have to make. Maybe Netanyahu is holding out for Trump to win? Who knows what Trump will do though?

At present Biden has been described as a lame duck president during pre-election period - but views towards Israel amongst younger generations have shifted. It looks like the US is attempting to legislate against anti - Israeli rhetoric but can’t see that turning back what the younger generations have seen happen in Gaza.

There is already unhappiness about interference by AIPAC in U.S. politics with increasing amounts being spent by the lobby group to remove progressives voicing concerns about Israel’s actions. Can only see this going one way.

There will also be less reliance on ME oil in the future which will influence need for Western allies to have a stronghold in the region.

Israel will need to establish a solution with Palestinians and thus with its neighbours if it wants a peaceful solution ahead.

Who knows how Trump will deal with this if he wins and what Netanyahu is holding out for. Netanyahu seems to think he can bomb region relentlessly until the U.S. elections. I am sure that is when it will stop when someone actually pulls some levers on Israeli actions but only if Netanyahu hasn’t triggered major escalation in the region.

@Daftasabroom I think most evidence over time suggests that destabilisation leads to increased radicalisation, poverty and reduced economic and educational opportunities. War and poverty go hand in hand and are generally linked to high birth rates, large family size , reduced access to education that affects women in particular, and an increasingly patriarchal and uneducated society. So the most likely outcome is a spiral of early marriage, high child mortality, large family size, unemployed angry young men political unrest, corruption, violence and radicalism and mass exodus of those who have skills and money to interrupt the pattern.
I can’t see Israel funding a Marshall plan

@Kindatired that isn't something to forward to.

I think PP are right - they cannot fight their way into peace. All they are doing is destabilising the region around them and laying the groundwork for even more extreme groups to come out of the woodwork and take control of the region. It's happened countless times before.

The US will continue to fund and support Israel as they are now their only foothold in the region since they decided to get rid of their friend Saddam.

Whilst the rest of the world supports a two state solution sadly this will be impossible to achieve when neither Hamas or the current Israeli government wants it.

Are you serious?

Israel has single-handedly disarmed fucking Hezbollah and eradicated its top leadership. Doing the West's dirty work while being denigrated for it.

A 2SS will not work when one of those states (Palestine) wants Israel gone and refuses every solution offered.

The UK military was there as back-up to help Israel defend itself against Iranian missiles this week. RAF Typhoons were in the air on Tuesday night ready to support Israel’s own defences. Israel also had support from the US.

In the end, the UK didn’t fire any of their weapons. But back in April, RAF Typhoon jets based in Cyprus shot down Iranian drones.

So the UK and US are helping Israel against Iran? I wasn't aware of that level of help!

Are you serious??

Yes they are doing dirty work by bombing the shit out of Lebanon and even bombing hospitals there (bombing hospitals seems to have become a hallmark for the IDF)

You must be having a laugh if you think they did it for the west. The entire 'west' was hoodwinked by Netanyahu after he agreed to a ceasefire and then went behind their back because he preferred dropping buster bombs in dense cities instead.

PurpleCharyn

"Are you serious?

Israel has single-handedly disarmed fucking Hezbollah and eradicated its top leadership. Doing the West's dirty work while being denigrated for it.

A 2SS will not work when one of those states (Palestine) wants Israel gone and refuses every solution offered"

This sums it up nicely. This is only about killing Jews. What people don't understand is that it will soon be about killing anyone who does not practice sharia law.

As far as I can see - most countries just wish Israel would stop destabilising the region and agree to a ceasefire.

This is not just about stopping Israel from killing innocent people, but also stopping an escalation that would effect world economy due to impact on oil prices and also draw in soldiers from other countries. The UK government has said they will help defend Israel but not by attacking Iran. Biden has asked Israel not to attack Iranian oil rigs and nuclear sites.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/29/european-ministers-call-for-immediate-ceasefire-in-lebanon

What about Saudi? They have been closer to the US and have kept a very low profile in the last year.

Why should disarming Hezbollah be the West's dirty work?

Brcause they dont want to do it themselves and it would be problematic to intervene in the region themselves especially as it would bring them closer to direct confrontation with Iran.

@Whatsinanamehey I think out of all the world's politicians and their actions Netanyahu has been the most concise and clear about his objectives since October 7th.

Ceasefires are the election busting bullshit that come out of the Americans mouths. Hamas haven't Been to the table since July and no one agreed even on who Hamas have hostage.

You can't negotiate with that.

With regard to Lebanon what do you suggest when rockets have been fired consistently since Oct 7th into northern Israel displacing thousands. Contravening UN conventions from years ago repeatedly. Would you just have liked it to continue with no response from israel?

The ignorance is astounding. If Hezbollah's goal as you say is to kill all those who don't practice shariah law, you would think they would make a start in their own country first. Hint: incase you didn't understand that they have a considerably large Christian population living there.

Israel's not destabilising the region. Iran is destabilising the region.