Where do the Lebanese armed forces fit into this?

[mids2019]

So Lebanon has an army of around 70 00/, a small airforce and a navy. Where does the Lebanese state and it's armed forces sit with current action?

Does Lebanon effectively view the south of the country as a non state, one governed or at least heavily influenced by Hizbollah?

It seems Lebanon and it's government is quite multi sectarian so I wonder if there are splits within the government currently?

70000

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Armed_Forces#:~:text=The%20Lebanese%20Armed%20Forces%20(LAF,air%20force%2C%20and%20the%20navy.

All I can think of is that the LAF are only there to protect the state in its entirety. and so are in a strange constitutional position as not seeing the Israeli action as aggression and its civilians as long as the focus is on Hizbollah units....or what is the point of an armed forces ironically backed by the US.

Is it the case a lot of southern Lebanon is effectively a non state at least militarily

There is No president ,No money , the government is corrupt, who do you think will help them fight back ?

@queenofarles

I see so the state ultimately doesn't have the money to support it's army?

A weird question but would the Lebanese (or at least some of them) take an opportunity to get rid of Hizbollah if they become sufficiently weakened?

Hizbollah aren't bringing good things to Lebanon so could there be internal resistance to their continued presence?

There was some polling on the other thread on views in Lebanon re Hezbollah which might be useful

Re the army I can't see that wouldn't just end in a civil war, a bit like Sudan

I feel for the people of Lebanon, they have stated they do not want war but do not seem to have the structures in place to get the outcomes in their majority interest

It's interesting and I do feel for Lebanon. It was on e a haven for Christian Syrians but the Christian population is only around 30%-40%. The Christians seemed to have emigrated during to persecution and poor economic standards.

It seems like militant Islamism has taken over swathes of the population leading to the conflict today. I am kind of guessing Hizbollah are ultimately all Muslim and the army may have more a mutisectarian mix.

Lebanon is a very unique complex state in the region ,
per their constitution ;
-The president must be a Maronite Christian
-prime minster must be a Sunni Muslim
-speaker of Parliament Shia Muslim
For the longest time ever neighbouring countries <Israel , Syria > have claimed < and meddled > sovereignty over parts of Lebanon, there is a very long civil war to prove that .
but yea the government is bankrupt, they had absolutely no fuel last month , and were saved by Algeria at the 11th hour, people can’t even withdraw money from banks .

It seems like the conflict in Lebanon does not involve the state as such but just a powerful Islamist group. It's such a pity that historically Lebanon has allowed such a group to take hold.

@queenofarles

Perhaps after this conflict it may be worth international support of the economy so that the state doesn't become so poor so that it can't effectively get rid of a second army?

*mids2019 *
Lebanon was bailed so many times, so so many times,
The US was paying the Army wages, no idea if they still do, Kuwait , Qatar , Saudis , France they all pump money into their economy , No idea where it all goes to!
Lebanon always had a strong Druze and Shia presence, you can’t just eliminate them.

You seem really fixated on Lebanon 'allowing a powerful group take hold' rather than Israel conducting terror attacks on the country and vowing to escalate it's war to Lebanon.

The UN has peacekeepers in Lebanon specifically to ensure that Hezbollah and Israel do not kick off like they are now. The Lebanese armed forces cannot engage, because if they did it would be the start of a regional war.

Well Lebanon was once quite prosperous then there was a disastrous civil war fought on sectarian lines which didn't screwed it basically. There seems to have been large influxes of Palestinians prior to the civil war (unless I am reading the history wrongly)

@ToBeDetermined

Then Lebanon is not a sovereign state in the true sense of the word?

The military can't intervene in its own territory as Hizbollah would turn on the Lebanese themselves?

Large influxes of Palestinians is a very mild way to describe the quarter of a million refugees fleeing the nakba and naksa into Lebanon. There were more in total but they didn’t all go to Lebanon.

Lebanon is a sovereign state in all the senses of the word.
The military cannot fight IDF without it being a declaration of war, which Lebanon want to avoid. Everyone in the west is diplomatically pressuring Lebanon to look the other way as well.

IDF is violating their sovereignty to fight a terrorist group embedded in Lebanese territory. Their heavy handed tactics are deliberately provocative.

Israel should be diplomatically pressuring Lebanon to address Hezbollah. Just like we are diplomatically pressuring Israel to agree to a ceasefire- we aren’t sending in troops of our own to protect Palestinians.

The only legitimate interference a foreign country can do in another foreign country is at the behest of a UNSC resolution directing a coalition to go into that country and whatever. Like we are currently doing in Yemen.

There is bound to be resentment that Hezbollah has drawn the attack from Israel. Threatening civilians that they have to move because their neighbourhood will effectively carpet bombed will probably increase the support for Hezbollah so Hezbollah will like survive in some viable form. Plus Hezbollah is backed by Iran and Iran can’t be eliminated as it’s huge.

Iran will probably resort to sponsoring attacks on embassies, synagogues, schools and selected businesses around the world in high profile revenge attacks in order to save face. It will continue to back anti-Israeli militants of every hue with weapons and money.Maybe refocus some effort into destabilising Jordan harnessing Palestinian refugees

Overall, probably the Lebanon, already on its knees economically and with well over 100,000 internally displaced people, will be further destabilised and run piecemeal by various militant groups, religious extremists and powerful extended families of quasi-political hoodlums. Theres a good chance that any normal way of life will be impossible due to various anarchic extremist militant groups backed by Iran and its adversaries and a complete lack of meaningful employment . Islamic extremists promising law and order and a lid on extortion , will rise to the top over time.

It is likely that its Christians will emigrate or seek asylum.Israel will reoccupy Southern Lebanon and the leave Lebanon to its own devices, put up with a few rocket attacks on its new”security buffer zone” and then as the years go by the occupation will be effectively an annexation. Then they’ll have another war, rinse and repeat. In my children’s lifetime, I think Israel will have annexed or occupied most of Lebanon.
https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2021/iran/#:~:text=Iran%20pursued%20or%20supported%20terrorist,a%20disrupted%20attempt%20to%20attack

How long have the rockets been fired by Hezbollah?

Who within Lebanon can stop them?

It is likely that its Christians will emigrate or seek asylum

Agree, and they won’t go to Israel. Israel has become increasingly hostile to Christians.

Hezbollah and IDF have been exchanging fire since October 8th, 2023 for this latest conflict.

The UN peacekeepers should have done so.

So Israel destroys the country and the rest of us pay for it? Seems a bit unfair.

Yes.
And according to the Norwegian refugee council Lebanon are currently hosting 1.5 million refugees from Syria and Palestine and now tens of thousands of Lebanese being displaced by the airstrikes

28 Aug 2024
”The United Nations Security Council today unanimously adopted resolution 2749 (2024), extending the mission’s mandate until 31 August 2025.
As daily exchanges of fire are having devastating effects on civilians on both sides of the Blue Line, the Security Council strongly urged all relevant actors to implement immediate measures towards de-escalation. It further demanded the parties recommit to the full implementation of all provisions of resolution 1701 and reiterated its strong support for full respect for the Blue Line and full cessation of hostilities.
The new resolution condemned incidents affecting UNIFIL premises and forces, including the wounding of several peacekeepers. All parties were urged to take all measures to respect the safety and security of UNIFIL personnel and premises, as well to allow UNIFIL to carry out the functions envisaged in resolution 1701.”
https://unifil.unmissions.org/security-council-renews-unifil’s-mandate-demands-full-implementation-resolution-1701

Islamist. Not Islamic. It does matter.