Thoughts on this turning into WW3

[auberginefortea]

I don't think this is in any way imminent, but it's clear to me that something wider is going on. Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Iran, who themselves are indirectly backed by Russia and China.

I notice online that Russian and Chinese rhetoric is very pro-Palestine, which is weirdly at odds with their position on Ukraine's sovereignty. It's a scary world we're moving into - to me it seems like a pre-1914 world of competing blocks is coming closer and it's very scary.

Does this scare you?

I think a wider regional conflict is a real risk, though even that I’m not convinced the key players want (e.g. Iran). I think WW3 is currently pretty unlikely at this stage, although it depends how you define it. If, as many believe, it means nuclear war then I think the chances are negligible as only Israel in the region has nuclear weapons.

Its more likely we’re looking at a new Cold War situation with proxy wars between the big powers - for example in Ukraine.

I don’t think comparisons to 1914 are always that helpful, the situation is inherently different due to the simple notion of MAD which didn’t exist in 1914.

I have similar thoughts to you and I think this has been brewing for a while. The Israel/Hamas conflict is the latest development In a pattern that has been developing for some time where countries are forming allegences with others /taking a public stance with their views on a conflict involving other countries and in some cases providing military or other support for one side. It is a dangerous time for the world.

What worries me is that there is no consensus in the world around what the solution should be or who the aggressor is. With Russia-Ukraine it’s completely clear that Russia is in the wrong and has invaded.Whilst some countries might not be too bothered by this, no one could argue it’s legitimate.

in the Middle East, there is support and opposition for both sides in equal measure despite the atrocities. That’s what frightens me, I worry that Israel has taken the wrong approach, they had the chance to get the world on side against Hamas but I fear they’ve alienated themselves from necessary allies by going for the whole of Gaza. I actually don’t know on which side I fall, all I know is that this is very very different to anything that has come before

No. Terrorism is a greater concern, given that terrorist Islamists will now have a reason to attack people in the West.

What worries me is that there is no consensus in the world around what the solution should be or who the aggressor is. With Russia-Ukraine it’s completely clear that Russia is in the wrong and has invaded. Whilst some countries might not be too bothered by this, no one could argue it’s legitimate.

To be honest, I think some countries would say Russia has to right to defend its own "legitimate security concerns"

I'm not sure you could describe this as lowering the temperature.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/6/us-sends-nuclear-sub-to-middle-east-amid-gaza-war

I agree op. So much of the world is at war or seems to be on the brink of war.