What effect do you think covid will have on birth rate?

[Bitofeverything]

I’m interested in the debates on various threads about whether to TTC or not. On what hand, you’ve got all the lockdown-baby book in nine months stuff. But on the other hand, you’ve got people trying to avoid putting pressure on the the NHS; people worried about the economy and whether they can afford another/first child; weddings being postponed (people may well choose to wait until they are married which may we’ll be next year); the incredibly sad IVF cancellations. Then - although it is one of the things you can do online - some people may not access contraception. I was just trying to work out what effect it would have in total on the birth rate.

Baby boom stuff!

As you said opinions are split! So who knows what will happen... but i doubt birth rate will decrease.
Personally i am still ttc for various reasons but i understand people who will put it on hold- especially those who haven’t started or who don’t have any issues.

We have taken the lockdown opportunity to spend time ttc, where as before we didn’t have the time due to highly demanding jobs. We’re almost at 2 years ttc so we’ve taken it as the perfect opportunity. I think for people who are just deciding to try for a baby, they may decide to wait

I think a lot of people with the loud anti TTC voices are people not TTC making the TTC community feel they have to be a little bit quieter or face being branded a horrible, selfish person. I think it will probably be about the same birth rate if not a little lower but I don't think it'll swing massively either way. I'm on the December 2020 baby thread and it is currently quite active with people in early pregnancy.

I think there might be a slightly lower rate of births during lockdown and a boom afterwards! Fwiw I don't judge anyone ttc at the moment.

They discussed this on More or Less on Radio4 last week, and it was pretty conclusive there won’t be a baby boom. In fact I think the birth rate will be lower than it’s been in a while over the next year. People always say there will be booms after events like this and it isn’t true, they don’t happen.

In this case:

• A good chunk of births are accidental teen births, as all the teens are being isolated at home those births won’t happen.

• IVF treatment seems of have completely stopped everywhere, so those births won’t happen, sadly for those involved

• Births always drop in times of economic uncertainty, for good reason, and this is a pretty darn big one of those! Very few people will be feeling secure right now and that’s unlikely to switch the minute lock down goes off.

• Couples who were planning to try are also likely to be put off by the uncertainty - health and income wise (I’ve seen loads of this on Mumsnet, lots of women saying they’d been planning to try this spring who now want to wait.) I think this will be a big impacting factor.

• Only thing that could put it up is lack of contraception and access to abortion, but they’ve actually made it easier to get an abortion because of this, they’ll just mail you the pills. It’s easier than ever to get an abortion in this country.

• Last but not least - lots of people are feeling more anxious and depressed than they usually would be. Something very likely to kill to kill your libido. I don’t think many people are constantly shagging right now, especially if they already have kids at home they’re trying to homeschool whilst also working from home. Many couples will be driving each other crazy, not getting amorous. I think we’ll see a lot of divorce from this (it’s already happening in China)

That’s really interesting. I hadn’t thought about teenagers marooned at home and consequent fall in birth rates!

I don't think there will be a baby boom. It'll be different compared to 9 months after a hurricane, or the baby boom after WWII, because in those types of situations people aren't worried about how things will be in 9 months' time, or about accessing medical care over the next few months.

I think a lot of people who have just started TTC or were planning to start will put things on pause for a couple of months, and people who already have kids and are marooned at home with them won't have the time or the energy to have sex. The accidental pregnancies from one night stands etc are less likely to happen because people aren't going out, and obviously a lot of fertility treatment is cancelled at the moment.

I think most people TTC at the moment are those who have been trying for a while and don't feel they can afford to postpone it, and those people probably aren't the most fertile anyway.

I was planning to TTC first (and only) child after my wedding (been married for 5 years but never got round to celebrating until now because I was saving to buy a flat) and also after i get a new job. Job search and wedding put on hold.

And also I wonder if other people feel the same. I am relatively young so this is my first recession as a working adult. I have seen so many people's lives and economic situation turned upside down from this pandemic. And so i feel even more confident I don't want more than 1 DC to be responsible for as this wouldn't be the last pandemic we have

A good chunk of births are accidental teen births, as all the teens are being isolated at home those births won’t happen
Only 1.4% of births are to teens
www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2016/jul/18/how-uk-halved-teenage-pregnancy-rate-public-health-strategy

If there is an increase, I reckon it'll be in first children. Those of us doing lock down with kids I think are being reminded of exactly how tough it can be!

@Spanneroo i am on quite a few only child facebook groups and a lot of mums are saying their OC is lonely and maybe having a sibling would help etc. But no one has actually said they would be TTC in view of this. It may also go the other way as a lot of mums think that one child is quite enough to care for and provide for without having to worry about squabbling siblings. I wonder if anyone is thinking of it?

@Desiringonlychild that's a good point. Perhaps it will depend on how old the child is. I'd have thought older only children will be able to do a lot of socialising electronically. Younger ones will struggle with the lack of physical play. I really don't envy parents of OC - my 5yo talks my ear off all day every day, but at least DD2 can help defuse some of the physical energy!