How do they arrive at these odds? I feel slightly less optimistic now!

[sleepcrisis]

I have just read that the average woman's chances of conceiving in any one cycle is between 15-25%. That's tough odds!

I'm just wondering how they take into account things like age etc. I mean obviously you have higher odds if you're 25 than 35, and if you have regular sex or not.

But do these odds apply to someone who is aware of their cycle, has regular sex at the 'right' time - every other/every day during fertile window, is relatively healthy.

I wish I hadn't read that, it makes it seem so unlikely! I am 32 btw so while still young I am past the magic 30 that they always seem to refer to in these articles.

Ah! That's not encouraging at all

I would ignore that stat. If you think about it nobody should have a better than 1 in 4 chance each cycle because you're only fertile for a week out of every 4. In fact it's less than that - more like a 1 in 10 chance really. BUt if you are healthy and you shag enough in that week your chances of getting pregnant in those few fertile days is way more

How long have you been trying OP?

25% - ie 1 in 4. Not bad at all!

Don't worry. I saw an article recently saying that the difference in fertility between a 27 year old woman and a 39 year old woman is much more negligible than we've been led to believe.

I got pg with my first child at 37 and am now 7 m pg again at 40. Luckily no issues.

As soon as you want to start TTC, get checked out, then if there are no special circumstances that need attention just relax and get on with it

Not long. DS1 was an accident, 1st and only time we ever had unprotected sex until now! Then ttc#2, fell pregnant straight away but had chemical. Am now on cycle 2. So going on my history I should have no problems, but I just came across that stat and started to feel a little panicked! I think I'm just particularly eager because of the chemical pregnancy last month, and I think if I got of so easily twice then it can't possibly be that easy again! (Obv 2nd time wasn't easy but in a diff way)

Thanks for your spin on it. That sounds much more reasonable :)

Lemon, was that today's Observer? It was really interesting and worth googling OP. it doesn't appear to be on the Internet yet, maybe tomorrow? It was called "everything you know about fertility is wrong".

There's a stat in there that says "intercourse two days before ovulation resulted in pregnancy 29% of the time for 35- to 39-year-old women, compared with about 42% for 27- to 29-year olds."

I think 25% is quite high when you think of all of the things that have to go right to result in a pregnancy....

You have sex and....
The sperm have to get into your cervix (of 50 to 250million sperm ejaculated, fewer than 1 million make it this far)
Sperm have to swim the equivalent of 40 miles in a hostile environment to get to the top of a fallopian tube, and there are 2 tubes and only one will have an egg so half of the sperm left will 'go the wrong way'
Only a few hundred sperm survive and make it to the top of the 'right tube'
The sperm has to be at the top of a tube within 12 - 24 hours of ovulation
Once fertilised the bundle of cells has to travel down the fallopian tube and embed in the womb
The womb lining has to be receptive to this (and the luteal phase long enough for implantation to happen) and there must be no chromosone abnormalities for the pregnancy to be sustainable

And all of this assumes no issues with ovulation, fallopian tubes, sperm count or motility etc etc

Add up all of the things that can go wrong in that list! I'm personally surprised the chances of pregnancy aren't less than 1%!

here you go

I agree with Merkin, when you look at everything that has to fall into place, it's actually surprising that we get pregnant at all!

That would been the average woman would get pregnant in four to 6.5 months. So nothing to panic about.

Those stats I think do not take into account if you are purposely timing dtd before / around ov or if there are any other issues. I guess because everyone is different it's impossible to say what the chances for an individual are. All you can do is just do all the right things to optimise your chances.

The stats are deceptive. All it tells you is that if doesn't happens within a few months, don't worry, because the majority conceives within a year.

It sounds scary, but I've also read that if you're under 30 (ish - can't remember the exact stats), something like 50% of couples will conceive within four months, around 80% in six months, and something ridiculously high within a year.

I agree that conception is a complicated process, but when you think about so are all bodily functions, and they work fine most of the time!

Also, I just got the impatient woman's guide to pregnancy and she says it's unknown where those stats come from. She says that a research found that women in their 20s and early 30s on average got pregnant within three months and those between 35-40 in four months! And in women who predicted their ov and were under 35, between 67-76% conceived in the first month.

I don't know the details of this study, but the stats are definitely better!

Hope you're right, BlueAmber cos I don't want another period!!! (Next month, that is, not forever!)

Everyone has their own % of getting pregnant each cycle which depends on so many factors; the 25% I think is an average based on a few studies looking at couples intending to get pregnant and starting TTC (so there will have been people who went on to take a long time, as well as people who managed it quickly).
Two women having sex (not with each other ;-) on the same days of their cycle (with respect to ovulation) will have different chances of getting pregnant. That's why some women get pregnant the first time of trying, every time; why some people get pregnant even while on the pill or using condoms; and why some people can do everything right for months on end and it still not happen. If your personal probability of pregnancy each month is 25%, then after 6 months there is a 82% chance you will be pregnant; after 12 months it is a 97% chance. If your personal probability is 10% each cycle then those the chances are 47% by 6m and 72% by 12m. If it's 2%, then 13% and 22%.

It took my parents 6 years to get pregnant and that was with them starting at 21... dad's swimmers checked out OK so it was probably an issue on mum's side but this wasn't investigated very far in those days apart from that she seemed to be ovulating. We started TTC at 30 and so far it looks like we have a similar story. I just think I have (and my mum had) a much lower probability than 25% each month, otherwise after 18 cycles of trying our chance of us not being pregnant is just 0.6%! As a statistician I just don't believe we're that unlucky!

Those odds sound way better blueamber - but moggle you get the prize for most realistic answer.

I am SO impatient!

Best of luck moggle, I know how hard long term TTC can be. It took me 3 years and fertility treatment (I have PCOS) but I'm currently 7 weeks pregnant

Thanks frankel, I sometimes lurk on the BESH threads and saw you got your BFP :-) gave me hope!! Being pessimistic I feel we aren't going to manage it without assistance, but who knows we might manage it au naturel before we qualify for help. I've finally got a hycosy / HSG booked for this cycle and next appointment a couple of weeks later where we'll get my AMH results, so we may find out a bit more then. or be put into the "unexplained" camp and wait for another 16 months or so til we're eligible for IVF.

It's the same stats though. Most women conceive relatively quickly, but obviously if there are health issues, which will be in the minority of couples, it will take longer. That's why they give these averages, because it's impossible to say what the chances for an individual are.

It does show that it helps to track your ov, assuming everything's working ok.