Will we start to see refugees from Australia?

[BettyJean]

Just wondering if anyone thinks this will be likely, given recent events are predicted to not just be the new normal but get worse.

Of course a lot of Aussies have dual citizenship - either because they’ve migrated there, married a Brit, have an ancestry visa. So people selling up, moving here and travelling here legally may not look like the refugees we’ve seen before. It might not even be that noticeable given Aussies are English speaking and have a similar education system to us.

If the fire season is as bad next year and the year after and the year after... If the water shortages continue... If I was living in those circumstances and had access to a life in another country, I’d seriously think about it.

Climate change will eventually result in a lot more refugees from fire, drought or flood. As you say, the Australians will probably be able to slip in without much comment. Other groups will be less able to do that.

I'm in Australia and have not heard or read of anyone thinking of moving overseas. There's more to it than just climate change.

I moved back to the UK and have other friends that did the same, one of the reasons commonly cited was climate change. We are not Aussies though, we were expat Brits who chose not to settle in Aus long term - for a few reasons, climate change being one of them.

No. Australia is HUGE and the majority of it is uaffected by the fires. I've been reading how Margaret River tourist industry has been hit due to misleading maps of the fires circulating on the net. They are relatively unaffected as is alot of Western Australia.
But it is a good warning about climate change.

FFS, no. Fires are a natural part of life on a subcontinent like that. You're only getting one side of the picture.

@blubblubblub

If it gets worse though. If next year’s fires are worse and the year after is worse still.

If the water shortages spread from country towns to cities?

I read that 40% of Aussies can claim a 2nd citizenship. That’s a pretty easy way out for some. As ppl above said, arriving legally means they’d slip in unnoticed. I don’t think we’d see Aussie refugee camps in Greece or anything like that.

Read the Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells. I think what we are seeing now is just a taste of what’s to come.

No although it is horrible this summer for the country, apart from a few days of air quality issues in the cities, the cities have been mostly unaffected. I'm aussie living in London and I only know one person who had to leave their house, and they were back in 24 hours later. They also knew it was a bushfire prone area when they moved there and are on alert every summer, and joined the volunteer fire service as soon as they moved there. I think that as this bushfire season has been so vastly reported, it is easy for those abroad to think this is a new thing, it really is not (just earlier/worse than usual in terms of property damage, but there have been much more fatal fire seasons).

@Pipandmum

Australia is huge but most of the population live on the coast, unlike the US. This is because a lot of the centre of Australia already can’t sustain a large population.

@MackerzNZ
I'm in Melbourne and there's a desalination plant here that's not being used as it's not needed, even though our storage levels have decreased past few Summers. Water isn't going to be an issue for a while yet.
Australia has a lot of bush, and bush burns. If it was managed better (for various reasons), than it has been there wouldn't be as much to burn. Once an area has burnt it would be many, many years before it was large enough for another major fire.

I also have a large flora and fauna reserve nearby, that has regularly burnt every 10-15 years. That's just what happens in a country with bush. It's not ideal but it's not new.

@blubblubblub

Desalination plants use a lot of fuel though, don’t they? Aren’t they powered by fossil fuels? Shame they aren’t powered by solar.

I have just returned from Australia and all I get asked about are the fires and the extreme heat. They seem disappointed when I tell them that it was 19 degrees and raining when I left. Even more disappointed when I tell them that I only witnessed one fire, fewer than usual for the the time of year.

For what it's worth, I know several people that have recently moved back to the UK, one couple didn't actually come from the UK to start with. None of them did it because of climate change fears.

I don't think Australians will be leaving their beautiful country anytime soon. It's normally the people that live in poverty and in awful countries that want to leave.

.. isn't one of the reasons for the escalation of the Syrian war the tensions around drought and water shortages in that area?

Aware there are lots of issues behind the war and the water shortage is not necessarily climate change etc etc ... but availability of fresh water globally is predicted to be a source of conflict in future years.

Am sure I have also read somewhere comments about Scotlands supply of water to England being resented.

www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/the-growing-power-of-water-in-syria

@BettyJean I'm not sure what powers the desal plant but I assume it's not solar. If we need fossil fuels for water then that's what they'll do. Not using it, or reducing Australia's emissions won't reduce our bushfire risk - in terms of overall global emissions we're not a 'major player'.
I'm now in my mid 40s and can remember water restrictions, blackouts and bushfires since I was a kid. It's part of living in Australia. Some areas suffer more than others.
We have a fire plan and I expect to need to use it in the next year or two, if not this Summer, but I have no plans to move.

@tjk10

Yes, “people in prosperous countries think they are invulnerable”

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/climate-change-and-the-end-of-australia-238860/amp/

@Eve

Yes, agreed. The drought prompted more people to move to cities, inflaming tensions that were already bubbling. Have you seen the Big Short? The smart money is on water now apparently.

@blubblubblub

Re emissions - In terms of population, Australia is the 2nd highest:

ourworldindata.org/per-capita-co2

Aren’t they powered by fossil fuels? Shame they aren’t powered by solar.

^^

Yip.

Im now in my mid 40s and can remember water restrictions, blackouts and bushfires since I was a kid. It's part of living in Australia. Some areas suffer more than others.

^^

Ah. So we'll just keep on doing what we've always done eh? Nothing to do with the coal industry in Australia at all, politicians should be investing in clean energy rather than coal. But which makes the most money? You got it.

@eve

Good post re Syria, i don’t think the impact of the water shortages are widely known.

Although I’m not aware that Scotland exports water to England. Wales supplies Birmingham with Water. The North West of England (including M/cr and Liverpool) get theirs from the Lake District. I’m not sure about NE England, although it’s pretty wet up there, so they may well produce their own!

@managedmis

I’ve just read that article Bettyjean posted above - it’s really interesting. Given your posts, you may like to read it.

There are many things wealthy countries can do to combat the effects of climate change. Much more difficult for developing countries.

Australian governments have been complacent about fire risks. They have under invested in fire fighters and equipment. They have also failed to clear brushwood, build fire breaks etc. This will change now.

I understand Australia has fewer than 3000 professional firefighters - less than a medium sized city in UK. The government also failed to call in the Army and seek help from overseas in a timely manner.

The situation was aggravated by low rainfall but it was also aggravated by government failures.

@keyboardwarrior1

Well I suppose if you’ve got a government that doesn’t believe in climate change, then that government won’t plan to mitigate the results of climate change.

@MackerzNZ

I found this - its say no water currently but potentially if England continues to have water shortages ( though obviously not short this week!!)

inews.co.uk/news/environment/england-run-out-of-water-25-years-scotland-is-the-answer-505268