If you have an UNDER THREE please read this

[studentmummy]

When the vaccine is available it will not even be OFFERED to UNDER THREE's even though 0-4 year olds are the projected heaviest affected group for MORTALITY. As the mother of a two year old (among other siblings)I resent not having the CHOICE to have my child protected especially if death rates INCREASE. Even the very elderly will take priority over toddlers and babies as they have been allocated vaccine at the very end of the queue.
The government advice is that UNDER THREE'S STAY AT HOME for their own protection instead which is not a realistic option for working or stay at home mothers who will bceome PRISONERS IN THEIR OWN HOMES.
For clarification please read the following :Prof David Salisbury letter to primary care trusts dated 26 June 2009 and goveernment projections for swine flu under NHS choices website. I suggest if you feel as strongly as I do a letter to your MP that under three's are NOT EXPENDABLE but are human beings with full rights as our their mothers!

As a SCIENTIST and as a MOTHER of a 3yo I welcome the fact that other groups - including older children are vaccinated earlier.

I am happy that the fact that under 3's vaccination will be later than other groups as it will allow the generation of more safety data.

It all comes down to risk v benefit ratio.

There WILL be (theoretical if not actual) risks of giving under 3's a vaccine which has had limited testing.

Those risks (I suspect) outweigh (because of scale) the anticipated benefits FOR THIS COHORT.

For vulnerable under 3's the potential benefits are MUCH GREATER than the 'average' 3yo. Therefore the risk benefit is swayed towards benefit.

After 60billion doses of the vaccine have been given, a more thorough analysis of the risks can be assessed, and as long as it is in favour of Benefit. THEN it wil be given.

60 billion doses?

What butterbeerandlemon said. There is a whole raft of epidemiologists and risk assessors and public health experts who have to make these decisions quickly on the basis of the best science available. This may well change but without unlimited global resources for health, we can't have everything we want, whether or not we think it is right.

These are questions of morality (who should go first) and taxation (who would pay more so that everyone can be equal). Neither of these questions is necessarily best answered by the parent with an immediate personal anxiety. That is hard, but the brute reality of mass society.

I would be terified of my 9 month old catching swine flu, have already experiencedhim seriously ill with bronchiolitis. I too am appalled that they will not be in the first group to be vaccinated. Agree with vaccinating school age kids because they are so close but this also occurs in preschools and nursery. I for one very rarely spend a day in!! Why also have the elderly as a priority group when they are being affected least?

"rather than just being arbitarily excluded"

i don't know all the evidence but i VERY much doubt that anybody is being ARBITRARILY excluded.... they will be in a different priority group for a reason.

The first in line are nhs staff, then under 5s then vulnerable older kids, adults and so on, read that today on nhs website

I am a GP up to my neck in it (do I count as a scientist??)I am also a mum to an 8 yr old and a 18 month old!
I dont think its clear cut, however, all reports point to the highest mortality being in the under 5 group, ye they do not appear on the priority vaccination list at all, ie all high risk groups including 3-16 year olds will be vaccinated first and then the littlies! along with the rest of the population!
Considering most oldies are mostly housebound so less likely to come into contact with it, until we knock on their door!
As a GP I need to read some more, because I cant quite get my head around it!
As a mum I would like my little one vaccinated - prophylaxis is another question entirely, if and when I get it!

macdoodle, am a bit at your suggestion that most oldies are mostly housebound. Very, very old with infirmities perhaps.

My sister's 3 yo dd had swine flu last week, confirmed by swab... she was over it in 48 hours. I know not all will be as lucky, but the vast majority, as with seasonal flu...

Only question now... I'll be starting third trimester in September when the peak is due, should I start crapping myself now as to what the vaccine will do to my baby, or later?

Kerry - Thanks for your support. The problem with being a parent is that you do think intuitively sometimes rather than dispassionately but I don't always think that this is a bad thing. There has been a lot of rhetoric about trust in established systems and professional bodies but when you are a parent you have to be 100% sure so I always like to check things out.
I'd still like to hear from someone who could really intelligently reassure me referring to papers, data records, websites etc as everything I have read indicates that under fives are at higher risk not lower.

@studentmummy
i suspect if you saw your GP and cried put a really pressing case you might get a jab for your baby...any NHS workers think this could work??

re:toothy2 - having been bit by her a few times before fully weaning @15mo, it is a discouragement to re-latching her after a long hiatus (but not the original cause of weaning, see?). booby milk in a cup coukd still work though....

studentmummy, have you had a look at the WHO and HPA websites? They were publishing updated epidemiological data on there. I keep a weather eye on them for precisely the reasons you mention (interested amateur but parent who would rather be well-informed). I also take a good look from time to time at the advice on the NHS website issued to staff (as opposed to the public). I can't always understand all of it, but enough to work out what is going on a bit, and to have my own sense of what I would do in what circumstances.

Thanks for the clarification, Butterbeer

I think I'm relieved

sorry studentmummy you are still coming across as a journo fishing for a story

Sorry 60 million.

Thanks to everyone for their helpful hints and comments. Sorry Gallusbesom that you think that only a journo and not a real mummy would display this level of interest in this issue. If I was a journalist I would probably have written a real article by now but only because I am a parent and I feel so strongly about it and only expressing my views. It just feels so wrong to know that two of my children will be protected but not my youngest who I consider to be the most vulnerable. Look at the facts -

1. Up to 50% of children to be affected by swine flu under projected figures including under threes
2. Children under 5 and older people both affected more seriously with complications 3. However, far fewer numbers of older folk expected to get virus than rest of population

Therefore children under five high risk under two counts - both getting and managing virus

So I'm with macdoodle - I just don't see the reason why young children under 3 are low priority.

I think the point that others have tried to make is that probably 60-70% of the population are in the same category as the under 3's. And that it might be expected that under3's will go to the top of that "others" list - so will probably be in the first half of the vaccination program ahead of other adults.

I agree that it perhaps seems that some of the groups are less vulnerable - like the over 65's. But when you look at it a bit closer I think that more toddlers will be affected - but (I am guessing) that mortality rates will be lower in the toddler group than over 65's. I suspect that mortality rate in the over 65's will actually be amongst the highest.

I would like to qualify that but stating that mortality rate is the percentage of THOSE AFFECTED, not percentage of the population.

Hijack!

who moved my chocolate

my ds birthday is the 17th! day after yours!

Hi everyone

Good to see serious debate now established at last! Thanks for all your points - even the contradictory ones. God knows I hope I am wrong about this disease!! Taking all your points into account what I would like to see is some active prioritisation for the under threes even if it is behind the elderly but ahead of the rest of the population as we keep being reminded that the under fives are more at risk due to compromised immune systems!!
All my children now get an extra kiss at night just in case

When was a swine flu vaccine developed previously? How many people did it kill or paralyse?