Ewe - some people are still getting payrises actually. If the nanny has been lead to believe that she will get a raise then why should she think otherwise unless the OP or her DH have had significant changes to their income/lifestyle (ie been made redundant, taken pay cuts etc).
'We are in a recession' cannot become a stock answer (excuse) for people/employers who are in a position to pay more but choose not to (OP this is not aimed at you!!).
Yes, there is a lot to be said for market conditions, however, as I pointed out before (did you read my original post??), there are many reasons to consider giving this nanny an increase in pay, some are financial and some are not.
I don't know about anyone else but I don't make a habit of increasing my outgoings just for the fun of it!
No, but do you consider increasing your outgoings when you have more to gain than lose by doing so, or are you so blind that you blankly refuse to look at the alernative option????
The OP has asked what is fair to do, but none of us can acurately answer that as we do not have a copy of the contract or know what the nanny has been led to believe do we?! There is more to it than being in a damn recession!
The OP needs to think specifically about her situation. IF the nanny has been led to believe she is getting an annual payrise and IF she has not been told otherwise and IF the OP/her DH have not been made redundant/taken significant wage cuts then the nanny would be well within her rights to expect said wage rise. If she doesn't get one, she may decide to look around for another job and IF she finds another job pays better and leaves, then the OP has to find a new nanny she is equally happy with - not an easy thing to do and something which could be avoided by a small payrise....
Once again OP half of this is now not aimed at you - sorry, and without some of this information it is hard to know what is fair