I have used both (have 3 children) and prefer childminders for little ones and nursery for 3 +.
Childminder:
I like the home setting of a childminder as well as the calmer atmosphere (generally!). I also like that it is a bit more like my home, mixture of going out to shops, Playgroups and playing at home in the garden. I also like the mix of ages and the fact they go and pick the older ones up from school which mimics real life.
Both childminders I have used don't charge for school holidays unless used so for people with school age and younger ones it works out a bit cheaper. They are generally cheaper anyway.
I haven't had issues with CM sickness / holiday as both mine are very reliable and give loads of notice of holidays. However my work is pretty flexible in this regard which isn't the case for everyone.
Research shows that a one on one attachment is better for little ones and you just can't replicate this with nursery in the same way.
Nursery:
Like you, I wasn't confident in choosing a CM for DC1 so I went with a nursery from 1 yr. I could see it all laid out and staff were around to monitor others behaviour. DC1 was fine. He took a while to settle into the nursery routine but was there until he started school without issue.
Nursery can provide more activities. Ours did cooking, French and football for the older ones. At 3 it was more structured play, a bit like school. I don't actually like too much structure at a young age as they have loads of time to be in a formal setting but DC2 thrives on this and was very much school ready.
Conclusion
If you can find a CM you gel with and like, I would go with her. If you're not confident, go with a nursery. You can always chop and change. DC2 and 3 were/ are with CMs at a young age and then switched to nursery age 3.
What a ramble! Good luck .