Yeah Outraged, but the chance of a car accident (which is probably one of the greatest threats any of our children face, regardless of where they spend their time) isn't quite like that of being eaten by lions now, is it? I mentioned it because one CM I went to meet with told me how she loved taking "the babies" to the seaside (an hour and a half away from here, so three hours in the car for the babies) once a week during Summer, and then in the next breath told me it had taken her eight times to pass her driving test. I couldn't see any reason for a year old to be in a car for three hours one day a week other than to give the CM a way of justifying strapping the child into a car for that length of time. Sounds like hell to me, either way.
I think instinct is a huge part of it but I would agree that if you want to go the CM route in your area, get out to playgroups and watch to see how CM's are interacting with the kids in their care. I did this and unfortunately didn't see an awful lot to recommend any of the ones with any availability - there were some amazing CM's also but they didn't have any spaces or were offering term time only. Many of the ones with availability were basically hardly interacting with the kids and more interested in nattering/gossiping than the kids in their care. I think this is sadly more likely than it used to be as the paperwork associated with childminding has driven a lot of very caring and talented people out of the job.
Given that, having childcare that was 51 weeks became a bigger priority as we really needed to be able to rely on ds being able to go if he was well. Obviously if he was sick we would have been off with him whether or not he was in a CM's or a nursery.
In general, as I now face this choice with ds2, I would say that any paid childcare isn't really ideal. A great nanny is the best, a great CM next best, a great nursery after that.. but it is rarely as straightforward that there is a raft of high quality childcare to choose from. We have dealt with the issue here by seriously reducing the time they have to be in paid childcare - I work a 2 day/3 day fortnight term time only and dh uses his holidays to work a nine day fortnight with parental leave for one annual holiday and Christmas so the children are in nursery only 2 days a week. We also stagger drop offs and pick ups, so I go to work stupidly early and dh comes home stupidly late to minimise time in nursery. We found that despite my wage being technically high, that no matter how we crunched the numbers or what we tried that the cost of two in childcare meant working just couldn't pay.. but we want a third so we are putting up with this so I can get maternity leave for a third and then I will go back to work that off for six months and leave.
It is a really complicated thing, childcare.. and your needs will change as your family grows and changes, or as work demands increase or decrease etc. I think everyone has to come up with their own individual solution and there will always be some compromise - you just have to choose what matches both your needs and your values personally.