I know there have been several threads about attempting a VBAC or chosing to have an ELCS, but I'm still undecided.
We had an appointment last week with the consultant mid-wife who was very positive about VBAC (as expected). She said I would have a 75% chance of success and the chances of tearing or needed an instrumental delivery were the same as if it were my first labour (I only got to 2 cms last time and she said that didn't really count as being in labour before).
It all sounded fairly positive and so I thought I'd give it a go as long as I went into labour spontaneously, baby was head down and everything looked favourable.
I've since done some more research and 20% of births at the hospital are instrumental births, and the chance of me having a 3rd or 4th degree tear is approximately 10%. I can't find any statistics for episiotomies.
So I would have a 25% chance of needing an EMCS, if I do get a VBAC there's a 30% chance of bad tearing or instrumental birth.
So given those statistics, wouldn't an ELCS be better?!