The Aus study:
stand out features for me (based on quick read) -
Good study, comprehensive data collection, well analysed, well thought out. Looked at infant deaths as it's outcome, so doesn't tell us about any other aspects or outcomes of birth, eg disability/pain/mother's health.
Risks are all low. Vast majority of births in all settings go well. Number of deaths over 5 years was 50. And this data was from 15-20+ years ago, what might have changed in terms of practice since?
HB in Australia was found to be higher risk than hospital birth, a serious concern given that most very high risk births happen in hospital, so 'should' be the other way around.
Highest risks found in post term (>42 week) pregnancies, breech and twin deliverys. You're likely to be warned off HB in the UK if you fall into any of these groups.
HB is relatively rare in Aus, tends to use private midwifery services who don't do very many HBs. Over half of the midwives went to fewer than five homebirths a year.
Can we assume that more experience from the MWs means lower risks? Need a Netherlands study too!
The study seems to describe action NOT being taken when it was needed - women with foetal distress, meconium stained waters or stuck babies (shoulder dystocia) weren't transferred to hospital, but carried on at home, with tragic consequences.
We can't, of course, tell what would have happened in any one case was the woman to transfer, but the study looked at a LOT of births, enough to do some decent generalising and tell us that similar situations in hospital ended better.
It seems to me to be telling us a lot about practice in private MWs attending rare HBs, not a lot about any intrinsic risk, eg is HB riskier because attended by less skilled health professionals, not any other reason?
I can tell you that it wouldn't have put me off my own HB, but that I was pretty keen to make sure that my MW was experienced, and that transfer to hospital was expected if anything looked like it was going wrong!