If only 5% of babies arrive on their due date, when's the most common time for them to arrive?

[Habbibu]

Or is it evenly spread? Just got me wondering, and I don't know where to find the stats.

before or after

Give me STATS, CarGirl, you fiend.

around 41 weeks i believe !! think there is a definite peak in arrivals at 41 weeks

I vaguely remember a stat like one third are early and two thirds late. Makes you wonder why they don't just make EDDs a bit later

When you least expect them to or you don't need them to in my experience

I read somewhere that 80% arrive within 2 weeks either side of due date. Not very specific, sorry.

I conducted my own personal poll following a thread I started when I was expecting as I was desperate to know when the day would most likely arrive.

5 days over as it turns out. That seemed to be the most common due date and guess what? My LO arrived 5 days late!

Hmm. It's all a bit vague, isn't it? The 5% due date thing is bandied about with precision - someone must have looked at the % on other dates, surely?

5 days late? That would be ok - except that this baby is no doubt a giant already. dd was 40 +1.

5 days is nothing, try 16

One of my friends had both her children on their due dates. Obviously some first babies are prem, but for a first I would steal yourself for 5 to 10 days late.

It's always great fun when you're at the end: "Gosh, look at you, when's he due?"
"Last Friday."

They instantly look as if they expect you to plunge into immediate labour and expect them to play catch.

Huh. I've had the "Gosh, look at you, when's he due?" since about 20 bloody weeks. I grow 'em big, I do.

Not my first, georgimama, which is why I'm wondering - dd was 40+1, and it would be terribly handy if this one followed suit!

CarGirl - is the 16 day thread yours? If so, your non-statistical early response is forgiven, and I humbly retract the use of "fiend".

No, not mine.

dd1 induced ar 14 days over
dd2 induced at 16 days over (10lb 6oz)
dd3 induced at term (don't ever recommend that on a history of overdueness)
dd4 induced at 14 days over.

I too looked huge, it was the many comments of "is it twins?" that hurt, although I am only 5'

Also went to birmingham for the day (2 hours away) more than a week overdue with youngest, and 3 other children. I took my notes & tens machine just in case though!

dd was 10lb 11oz at term!

EDD in France is calculated for 42 week pregnancy. I wonder how many "overdue" babies arrive in France??
Ds1 induced 42+2
DS2 emCS (does not really count) at 31 weeks
DS3 VBAC 41+5

DS4 ?? - I hope he'll be late as well because his due date is DS2's birthday .

2nd babies aren't always bigger

still its the size of the head & shoulders I reckon.

I heard somewhere it was 10% premature; 25% 37-40 weeks, 5% on due date, and 60% after - but think i read that on here, so not sure where the stats come from originally!

I was recently told in my NCT class that 4% are born on the due date and the remaining 96% is split before and after (usually 10 days either side but clearly not always the case!)

Am also interested in this as am 39+2 but convinced I'll go overdue... so have been googling madly

Here's an interesting article from bbc radio 4 programme a while back

And here's a study from 1990 link here - based on uncomplicated pregnancies, which I think says that first babies are on average 8 days overdue

You'd think this would be something that medical authorities would have seriously researched -- inducing people based on incorrect methodology is surely not a good thing!

surely the due date by definition is the most likely time for them to arrive??

so the 5% is the peak iyswim, tailing off to about 22 weeks on one side and about 43 weeks on the other side? poisson curve??

DC1 overdue by 10 days
DC2 overdue and induced at 16 days

here's some stuff about the statistics

Oh, cool! Thanks, all - looks like it's pretty complicated. I'm guessing 40+1 for me.