It's my intention this time round to book a home birth, all being well. My belief, based on my previous birth experiences, is that it cannot be any less safe than what I have experienced in hospital.
My second pregnancy was an induction at 40+10. Despite telling the hca I was in labour and begging for help on five occasions over the course of five hours after the onset of contractions, I was patronised and told that I can't be in proper labour yet and I should take a nap or a bath, refused to consider that I might be labouring and refused to call my husband until I had been examined and found to be 4cms. She caved on my final tearful begging and got a midwife to fetch me two paracetamol. End result, when the midwife finally arrived willing to examine me she found me giving birth on the dirty floor of the antenatal side room, alone, no husband, no pain relief, no monitoring of the baby or myself whatsoever, and my baby was born less than two minutes after she entered the room. My notes were manufactured by a midwife sat at the end of the bed afterwards to show that my labour had only taken 30 minutes rather than the true five hours. A few hours after the birth the hca returned to tell me she was clocking off now, but hasn't I been lucky to have laboured and birthed all on the antenatal ward rather than having to transfer, and said it with no sense of irony whatsoever.
Third pregnancy - again 40+11, refused induction, this time a home birth, attended by two fabulous midwives and a student. They were with me for about four hours and continuously monitored and cared for both the baby and I. I have absolute faith that if something had started to go wrong, they would have spotted it at the earliest opportunity and my transfer would have been very quick.
Fourth pregnancy, yet again overdue and refused induction. I agreed with this one to deliver on a midwife led unit connected to a consultant led unit because, though I didn't want unnecessary intervention, I recognised that perhaps I was more overdue that I had previously been and this tipped the balance of risk. In honesty I also felt shoehorned into it - shroud waving in the one hand, coupled with suggestions that a birth on the midwife led unit would be a home-like experience etc. On arrival I was taken to a birth room but on reading on my notes that I had refused induction and was over their standard 40+10 overdue she asked me to leave and go to the consultant led ward. I pointed out the birth plan put in place a couple of days before with the superintendent midwife to cover this eventuality, and the midwife said she would have to personally discuss the matter with the superintendent before she could allow me to stay, and the care plan was meaningless. So whilst she disappeared to try and make phone calls at 3am, I was left labouring unmonitored again, with no pain relief, having been told not to unpack my bags as I wasn't stopping. An hour in, my husband had to run out and get someone as I was pushing, and the baby was born a few minutes later.
In short, I have had four births so far. My first was medicalised and rightly so, but would have been equally safe had it been a home or hospital birth to start. My second was a hospital birth which would have been safer as a home birth - had anything been wrong during the birth the midwives wouldn't have known. My third was a safe home birth. My fourth was a hospital birth which, again, would have been safer at home due to the lack of care received.
Whilst I realise that the plural of anecdote is not evidence, I cannot discount the experiences I have had in deciding what is safer for my baby and I.