Am J Obstet Gynecol 1999 Oct;181(4):882-6
Zelop CM, Shipp TD, Repke JT, Cohen A, Caughey AB, Lieberman E
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Massachusetts General Hospital, the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, and the Department of Obtetrics and Gynecology, University of Nebras.
After adjusting for birth weight, use of epidural, duration of labor, maternal age, year of delivery, and years since last birth, induction with oxytocin was associated with a 4.6-fold increased risk of uterine rupture compared with no oxytocin use. Acceleration with oxytocin made uterine rupture was 2.3 times more likely, and use of prostaglandin E(2) gel made rupture 3.2 times more likely. These differences did not qualify as statistically significant though, because of the small numbers involved.
Am J Perinatol 1997 Mar;14(3):157-60
Flamm BL, Anton D, Goings JR, Newman J
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Kaiser Permanente Medical Centers, Los Angeles, Riverside, CA 92505, USA.
5022 women attempted VBAC at California hospitals after prior cesareans. Of these patients, 453 (9%) were treated with PGE2 gel. There were no significant differences between the rates of uterine rupture in the two groups, and "indicators of maternal and perinatal morbidity were not significantly higher in the prostaglandin treated group".
VERNACULAR TITLE: Geburtseinleitung mit Prostaglandin-E2-Gel bei Zustand nach Sectio.
Geburtshilfe Frauenheilkd 1994 Mar;54(3):144-50
AUTHORS: Behrens O; Goeschen K; Jakob H; Kauffels W
Frauenklinik der Medizinischen Hochschule Hannover.
The authors analysed data from 385 trials of vaginal labour induction in a total of 522 patients with previous Caesarean section. Single or multiple cervical doses of prostaglandin-E2-gel were administered because of an unripe cervix in 161 women for induction of labour for medical indications.
The VBAC rates in this study were impressive: 84.9% of women delivered vaginally, and 70% of the mothers who had two prior Caesareans gave birth vaginally.
The highest success rates were seen after previous Caesarean for breech presentation, while there was still a vaginal delivery rate above 60% even after Caesarean for cephalopelvic disproportion or failure to progress.
There was no difference in complications for mother or baby between the induced and non-induced groups. There was a 0.5% incidence of uterine rupture, only in the NON-induced group. However, because of the small numbers involved, it is difficult to draw any further conclusions without reading the full study.
Sorry for the long post! I know the studies are inconclusive, research often is, however there are some statistics for your friend to look at from Angela Horn's Homebirth site (have posted stats rather than link as my links never work!)
There is absolutely no need for induction at all, if she went over 42 weeks (the usual term for a human pregnancy is between 27 and 42 weeks so 40 weeks is not over her dates!) then she could think about expectant management with weekly scans for liqour vol and twice weekly ctgs.